{"title":"Modelling time-varying volatility interactions","authors":"Susana Campos-Martins , Cristina Amado","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose an additive time-varying (or partially time-varying) multivariate model of volatility, where a time-dependent component is added to the extended vector GARCH process for modelling the dynamics of volatility interactions. Volatility co-dependence is allowed to change smoothly between two extreme states, and second-moment interdependence is identified through these structural changes. The estimation of the new time-varying vector GARCH process is simplified using an equation-by-equation estimator for the volatility equations in the first step and estimating the correlation matrix in the second step. A new Lagrange multiplier test is derived for testing the null hypothesis of constant volatility co-dependence against a smoothly time-varying interdependence between financial markets. Monte Carlo experiments show that the test statistic has satisfactory finite-sample properties. An empirical application to sovereign bond yields illustrates the modelling strategy and the usefulness of the new specification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 105098"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146014269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Vulnerable options under a Hawkes jump-diffusion model with two-factor stochastic volatility","authors":"Puneet Pasricha , Xin-Jiang He","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this article, we address the valuation of a European vulnerable options within a structural framework. Specifically, we model the underlying asset and the asset of the option writer using a joint Hawkes jump-diffusion model with two-factor stochastic volatility. We derive a general analytical integral formula for prices of European options, applicable under any modeling framework as long as the joint characteristic function of asset prices associated with the underlying and option writer is available analytically. Distinguished from the pricing formulae in the literature, especially in a jump-diffusion framework, which is either in the form of the expectation over the jump process or requires evaluating several layers of infinite sums, our formula is significantly simplified and computationally efficient. Moreover, our model dynamics encompasses a wide range of commonly used models as special cases, for which we provide explicit analytical forms of the joint characteristic functions. Finally, we present numerical experiments demonstrating the accuracy and computational efficiency of our formula, along with sensitivity analysis to highlight the impact of various model parameters on the option prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 105095"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146014267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Caterina Di Tommaso , Matteo Foglia , Vincenzo Pacelli
{"title":"The contagion effect of natural disasters in the Sovereign CDS market: Which causes?","authors":"Caterina Di Tommaso , Matteo Foglia , Vincenzo Pacelli","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the contagion effect of natural disasters on credit default swap (CDS) spreads in the European Union (EU) using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. Focusing on understanding the channels through which contagion occurs, we analyze data from 11 Eurozone countries from 2007 to 2021. The analysis explores the causes of the propagation impact of natural disasters on CDS spreads, considering factors such as geographical distance, financial investment flow, and trade balance. Our findings highlight a significant positive effect of natural disasters on CDS spreads, indicating heightened perceived spillover risk following such events. Furthermore, we observe that countries with higher Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) scores exhibit a lower contagion effect, suggesting that climate commitment may mitigate the financial impact of natural disasters. These results underscore the importance of proactive climate policies and risk management strategies in enhancing financial stability in the face of environmental shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 105102"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146032764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tales that cost: Folklore and bank loan spreads","authors":"Christophe Godlewski , Laurent Weill","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates whether cultural narratives embedded in folklore influence the pricing of syndicated loans. We combine loan-level data for European companies with the cross-cultural dataset of oral traditions compiled by Michalopoulos and Xue (2021) to examine whether stories about risk-taking shape loan spreads. We find that the presence of challenge-related motifs in a lender's cultural background is associated with higher spreads. More specifically, tales that portray unsuccessful outcomes lead to significantly higher loan spreads, while those depicting successful risk-taking have no discernible effect. A greater prevalence of failure over success in challenge-related folklore robustly predicts higher spreads across specifications. These findings suggest that cultural beliefs about risk—transmitted through folklore—affect how lenders perceive borrower uncertainty. By shaping the soft information environment in which credit decisions are made, ancestral narratives continue to influence the terms of modern financial contracts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 105100"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146048473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Microstructure-based private information and institutional return predictability","authors":"Xuchu Sun , Jinling Na , Tangrong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105113","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105113","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how institutional investors predict stock returns in retail-dominated markets by introducing a new focus on microstructure-based private information. Using tick-by-tick data from China, we find that institutional investors do have return-predicting power, consistent with evidence from institution-dominated markets. When we decompose their order imbalance signals, we find something surprising: microstructure-based private information explains nearly as much of their predictive ability as value-based information. This challenges the traditional view that institutions mainly trade on firm fundamentals. Further analysis shows that heavy retail activity compels institutions to pay close attention to microstructure signals to exploit potential sentiment-driven mispricing, continually balancing them against fundamentals. Together, these dynamics shape the price discovery process in retail-driven markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 105113"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146095670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Motivated institutional investors and corporate debt choices: Do minority shareholders matter?","authors":"Michał Kałdoński, Tomasz Jewartowski","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105093","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105093","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On the basis of 460 non-financial public companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, we find a negative relationship between the shareholdings of motivated institutional investors playing the role of minority shareholders and the firm's reliance on bank debt. The observed relation seems to reflect the substitution effect in monitoring insiders, between motivated institutional investors and banks. We find this relationship to hold mostly for transparent companies, as they do not benefit much from disclosing private information to banks and thus can easily replace bank debt with other sources of financing. Furthermore, it holds mostly for companies suffering from substantial agency problems stemming from potential conflicts of interest between controlling and minority shareholders (a typical problem in countries with concentrated ownership structure of listed companies) and thus having greater monitoring needs. The revealed relationship is also substantial for poorly performing firms, where effective institutional monitoring can reduce the debt renegotiation advantage of bank financing. We document that the observed effect is stronger for motivated institutions with higher monitoring effectiveness, i.e. independent, long-term institutional investors with multiple blockholdings. We confirm that firms with motivated institutional investors tend to have higher proportions of public debt. Additionally, we show that companies substituting bank monitoring with institutional monitoring experience an increase in firm value.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 105093"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145957098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Directors and officers liability insurance placement, financial innovation, and the dynamic capabilities of listed companies","authors":"Shuiqing Lan , Lufei Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Utilizing panel data of Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2023, this paper systematically examines the relationships among directors and officers (D&O) liability insurance placement, financial innovation, and the dynamic capabilities of listed companies. The empirical results indicate that the purchase of D&O liability insurance placement can significantly enhance the dynamic capabilities of listed firms, and financial innovation likewise exerts a significant positive effect on these capabilities. Further analysis reveals a synergistic effect between D&O liability insurance placement and financial innovation, jointly promoting the enhancement of dynamic capabilities in listed companies. Mechanism testing shows that financial innovation plays a partial mediating role in the impact of D&O liability insurance placement on dynamic capabilities, and this mediating effect demonstrates pronounced heterogeneity between firms with high and low information transparency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 104873"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145689484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Data elements, market competition, and corporate radical innovation","authors":"Kelin Li, Wanshan Guo, Qingquan Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using panel data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2013 to 2023, this paper examines the impacts of data elements and market competition on corporate radical innovation (CRI). The findings are as follows: data elements significantly promote CRI; market competition effectively promotes CRI; market competition moderates the relationship between data elements and CRI; the impact of data elements on CRI exhibits heterogeneity between high-tech and non-high-tech firms; and the impact of market competition on CRI exhibits heterogeneity between firms with a higher average managerial age and those with a lower average managerial age.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 104894"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145689473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}