International Review of Financial Analysis最新文献

Conditional demand for lottery-type stocks: Information spillovers and asset prices comovement 彩票类股票的条件需求：信息溢出与资产价格变动

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105145

Yu Zhang , Konstantina Kappou , Andrew Urquhart

引用次数: 0

The yield curve strikes back: New evidence of its predictive power for economic activity and inflation 收益率曲线做出了反击：这是其预测经济活动和通胀能力的新证据

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105128

Olga Klinkowska, Olha Zadorozhna

{"title":"The yield curve strikes back: New evidence of its predictive power for economic activity and inflation","authors":"Olga Klinkowska, Olha Zadorozhna","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we investigate the informational content of the yield curve for future economic activity and inflation across 40 countries over 2010–2021. We examine developed, Central and Eastern European (CEE),and emerging markets, grouping countries based on their monetary policy credibility and economic stability. First, we extract unobservable yield curve factors (level, slope, and curvature) for each country from its sovereign curve. We then incorporate the estimated slope and curvature into predictive regressions for economic growth and inflation using panel regressions. Finally, as a key innovation, we evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of slope and curvature using novel panel forecasting techniques and econometric tests. Our empirical results show that slope and curvature contain predictive power for economic growth in CEE and developed countries. In emerging markets, yield curve factors shape expectations about future growth and inflation, but their out-of-sample forecasting performance remains limited. We further find that the strength of these predictive relationships depends critically on monetary policy credibility, with slope and curvature being more informative for future growth in countries where monetary policy credibility is lower. By contrast, economic stability does not materially affect forecasting performance. Finally, yield curve factors provide only limited and unstable signals for forecasting inflation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 105128"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147278904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Insurance as a financial ark: Adapting to extreme weather for farmers and agriculture 保险作为金融方舟：为农民和农业适应极端天气

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105131

Sichong Chen, Yunfeng Zhao, Zhihua Dong

{"title":"Insurance as a financial ark: Adapting to extreme weather for farmers and agriculture","authors":"Sichong Chen, Yunfeng Zhao, Zhihua Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105131","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate risks present significant challenges to agriculture and the welfare of farmers in rural communities. This work aims to unveil the role of insurance as a financial ark in navigating the threats posed by extreme weather events to the income stability of farmers. We analyze a panel dataset covering 318 Chinese prefectural-level cities from 2014 to 2024. This dataset integrates station-level daily precipitation records with socioeconomic indicators manually compiled from local statistical yearbooks. Using a two-way fixed effects regression model to control for unobserved city-specific heterogeneity and common time trends, we find that extreme weather events significantly reduce farmers’ incomes, while agricultural insurance emerges as a stabilizer that compensates farmers for these losses. Although insurance does not mitigate the losses by offsetting the decline in agricultural output caused by extreme weather, it aids in climate risk adaptation by encouraging farmers to seek alternative income sources, particularly through temporary labor migration. These findings highlight the role of insurance in ensuring the financial resilience of farmers amid climate change risks, but also call for reforms in agricultural insurance to enhance its capacity to safeguard crop production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 105131"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate disaster risks, response capacities and sovereign bond yield spreads 气候灾害风险、应对能力和主权债券收益率息差

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105150

Wenpeng Chen , Jiaqi Wang , Chao Zhao

{"title":"Climate disaster risks, response capacities and sovereign bond yield spreads","authors":"Wenpeng Chen , Jiaqi Wang , Chao Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>From the perspective of extreme heat, this study integrates theoretical model expansion and empirical testing to investigate how climate disasters influence sovereign bond yield spreads and the effectiveness of climate response capabilities. Specifically, it first incorporates extreme heat into the rare disaster theoretical framework and extends the asset pricing model to provide theoretical evidence on how extreme heat influences sovereign bond yield spreads. Next, by utilizing an unbalanced panel of macroeconomic data for 49 countries over the period 1995–2018, this research applies the Least Squares Dummy Variable Corrected (LSDVC) approach for empirical tests concerning the effects, transmission channels, and response measures associated with extreme heat. The findings reveal that: (1) Extreme heat increases sovereign bond yield spreads across various nations, with the yield spread increase being more pronounced for developing countries; (2) The primary transmission channels through which extreme heat affects sovereign bond yield spreads include damage to agricultural production and repercussions on social stability, both of which raise the risk of sovereign default; (3) Enhancements in climate response capacity can effectively mitigate the increase in sovereign bond yield spreads caused by extreme heat. In response to extreme heat shocks, the business environment and social readiness of an economy all have significant alleviating effects. This study enriches the research on climate finance by concentrating on extreme heat and identifies the key sectors for responses to such climate events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 105150"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

CEOs’ early-life disaster experiences and corporate hedging activities 首席执行官早年的灾难经历和公司对冲活动

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105138

Yiwei Li , Wenyi Sun , Yeqin Zeng

引用次数: 0

Environmental policy stringency and cash management: International evidence 环境政策的严格性和现金管理：国际证据

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105151

Svetlana V. Orlova , Andrew Prevost

引用次数: 0

The Crypto Risk Composite Index (CCRI)-advancing risk management in the digital asset space 加密风险综合指数（CCRI）——推进数字资产领域的风险管理

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105136

Xiaochun Guo , Kun Guo , Shouyang Wang

{"title":"The Crypto Risk Composite Index (CCRI)-advancing risk management in the digital asset space","authors":"Xiaochun Guo , Kun Guo , Shouyang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cryptocurrency markets exhibit higher risk than traditional financial markets. Their technology-driven, weak-fundamental nature makes risk formation more heterogeneous, fast-evolving, and difficult to quantify using conventional tools. This creates an urgent need for a comprehensive and forward-looking risk management framework. In response, this paper proposes a novel Cryptocurrency Composite Risk Index (CCRI) that systematically measures, monitors, and signals market-wide risk in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The CCRI integrates multiple and heterogeneous sources of risk information, including crypto market dynamics, network fundamentals, market sentiments and uncertainties, and comparative performance with traditional assets. To aggregate these diverse risk dimensions in an objective and data-driven manner, we employ a dynamic Entropy-CRITIC weighting approach, which effectively captures both the informational content and the structural heterogeneity across indicators. We further conduct a comprehensive validation framework using multiple complementary methods, including time-varying predictive regressions, ROC-AUC analysis, Granger causality tests, CoVaR-based systemic risk assessment, and volatility correlation analysis to evaluate the ability of CCRI to identify both systemic risk and extreme tail events across different types of cryptocurrencies. The results demonstrate that CCRI is able to capture contemporaneous risk and has short-term predictive power for systematic and extreme risk events. The evidence highlights the potential of CCRI as a practical and scalable early-warning tool for proactive risk management, offering valuable insights for market participants, institutional investors, and regulators in navigating the rapidly evolving and highly uncertain cryptocurrency landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 105136"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146778781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Crypto factor zoo (.Zip) 加密因子动物园（.Zip）

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105137

Aleksander Mercik , Adam Zaremba , Ender Demir

引用次数: 0

The impact of climate policy uncertainty on corporate investment 气候政策不确定性对企业投资的影响

IF 9.8 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2026.105118

Wendi Huang

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy surprises and the cross sectional stock return predictability in volume sorted portfolios 货币政策意外和成交量分类投资组合的横截面股票收益可预测性