International Review of Financial Analysis最新文献_第2页

Language structure and corporate financing: The role of future time reference 语言结构与企业融资：对未来的时间参考作用

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104392

Michael Machokoto , Tesfaye T. Lemma , Marvelous Kadzima

{"title":"Language structure and corporate financing: The role of future time reference","authors":"Michael Machokoto , Tesfaye T. Lemma , Marvelous Kadzima","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104392","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104392","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how linguistic structures, specifically the strength of future time reference (<span>FTR</span>) in languages, affect corporate financing decisions. Using a panel of firms from 48 countries over the period 1981—2019, we show that firms in <span>strong-FTR</span> language environments are more likely to rely on debt financing and tend to issue debt with longer maturities than those in <span>weak-FTR</span> countries. These results are robust to a range of controls and falsification tests. We further demonstrate that <span>FTR-strength</span> moderates firms’ financing responses to major institutional and macroeconomic shifts, including the Global Financial Crisis, the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and mandatory corporate board reforms. Finally, we find that <span>FTR-strength</span> influences the relationship between financing choices and firm value. Overall, our findings position <span>FTR-strength</span> as a salient distinct informal institutional factor that shapes corporate financial behavior beyond traditional economic and legal determinants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 104392"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144329878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Forecasting climate-sensitive industries' volatility: A regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS approach with multiple climate risk indicators 预测气候敏感行业的波动性：基于多气候风险指标的GARCH-MIDAS方法

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104412

Maria Ghani , Quande Qin

{"title":"Forecasting climate-sensitive industries' volatility: A regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS approach with multiple climate risk indicators","authors":"Maria Ghani , Quande Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the predictive power of multiple climate-related indicators in forecasting volatility across climate-sensitive industries using a regime-switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mixed-data sampling (GARCH–MIDAS) model. We examine environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics, climate policy uncertainty (CPU), the Transition Risk Index (TRI), the Physical Risk Index (PRI), and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) to predict stock return volatility. Our analysis covers major indices including renewable energy, transportation, mining, aggregate energy, and the green economy across Asia, Europe, and the United States. Empirically, out-of-sample results reveal that the ESG and CPU indices are superior predictors of volatility for renewable energy, clean energy, and green economy indices, particularly in Asian and U.S. markets. PRI and EPU indicators demonstrate significant predictive power for volatility in the energy, mining, and transportation sectors. Incorporating uncertainty factors into the Markov regime-switching GARCH–MIDAS framework substantially improves forecast accuracy, as supported by both economic and statistical metrics. These improvements are validated through R<sup>2</sup> direction of change and model confidence set tests. The findings carry important implications for climate policy development and implementation, offering critical insights for policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders navigating the complexities of climate-sensitive sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 104412"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144329880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Examining high-frequency patterns in Robinhood users’ trading behavior 检查罗宾汉用户交易行为的高频模式

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104369

David Ardia , Clément Aymard , Tolga Cenesizoglu

{"title":"Examining high-frequency patterns in Robinhood users’ trading behavior","authors":"David Ardia , Clément Aymard , Tolga Cenesizoglu","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using intraday (hourly) and overnight changes in the number of Robinhood (RH) investors holding a stock, we examine their high-frequency trading behaviors in response to contemporaneous and lagged returns. RH investors do not react to <em>contemporaneous</em> returns. However, they respond to <em>lagged</em> intraday or overnight returns, exhibiting three high-frequency behaviors: (i) the number of RH investors increases more for stocks with <em>extreme</em> lagged returns than for those with <em>moderate</em> returns, suggesting attention-driven buying; (ii) this reaction is asymmetric, with larger increases in the number of RH users following extreme <em>negative</em> returns compared to extreme <em>positive</em> returns, suggesting that their contrarian buying is stronger than their momentum buying; (iii) this asymmetry is strongest immediately after extreme returns and dissipates over time. Compared to findings from daily data, our analysis shows that daily data underestimates this asymmetry. Further analyses reveal greater attention to overnight movements, exacerbated behaviors during COVID-19, and variation across firm sizes, with more contrarian buying for larger-cap firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 104369"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144304960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate risks and financial stability: Evidence on the effectiveness of climate-related financial policies 气候风险与金融稳定：气候相关金融政策有效性的证据

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104304

Paola D’Orazio

{"title":"Climate risks and financial stability: Evidence on the effectiveness of climate-related financial policies","authors":"Paola D’Orazio","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104304","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104304","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of climate-related risks on financial stability, focusing on the role of climate-related financial policies. Using a panel dataset of 88 countries from 2000 to 2020, the study examines how physical and transition risks, proxied by CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions, climate vulnerability indices, and the Global Climate Risk Index, affect key financial stability indicators, including the Bank Z-score, non-performing loans (NPL) ratio, and liquidity ratio. By incorporating the Climate-Related Financial Policy Index (CRFPI), the analysis contributes to the literature by quantifying the effectiveness of climate-related financial policies in mitigating financial risks. The findings reveal that climate risks increase financial instability. However, countries with stronger climate-related financial policies exhibit greater financial resilience, particularly through lower NPL ratios and improved liquidity conditions. Overall, the results suggest that while CRFPI mitigates financial instability, its impact on solvency risk is less pronounced. Moreover, the effectiveness of these policies shows diminishing returns at higher levels of regulatory intensity. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate considerations into financial regulatory frameworks while ensuring a balanced approach to policy design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 104304"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144280821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effect of NYSE American’s latency delay on informed trading 纽约证券交易所美国分公司延迟交易对知情交易的影响

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104366

Jeremy Morris , Ke Xu

引用次数: 0

Risk spillover effects of climate uncertainty on commodity markets: From the dual perspective of physical risk and transition risk 气候不确定性对商品市场的风险溢出效应：基于实物风险和转型风险的双重视角

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104390

Haiqin Ouyang , Xiaoyong Huang , Bo Yu

{"title":"Risk spillover effects of climate uncertainty on commodity markets: From the dual perspective of physical risk and transition risk","authors":"Haiqin Ouyang , Xiaoyong Huang , Bo Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104390","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104390","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The issue of climate change is deeply intertwined with human activity and has a significant impact on human existence. To examine the spillover effects of climate change and climate policy on China's commodity market, this study adopts a dual-model approach, combining the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model and the dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) framework for empirical analysis. Impulse response graphs and dynamic conditional correlation coefficients, we analyze the spillover intensity of climate uncertainty and climate policy on the commodity market from both aggregate and pairwise perspectives via a spillover index. We find that the risk spillovers from climate uncertainty (CU) and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) to commodity markets are dynamic and time-varying, and three distinct peaks in climate uncertainty risk spillovers are identified during 2010–2012, 2016–2018, and 2021–2022. Compared with other industries, the energy and nonferrous sectors are more significantly affected by both physical and transition risks. Based on the TVP-VAR framework, physical climate risks are found to have a stronger spillover effect on China's commodity market. From the perspective of the CU index, the impact on the commodity market is generally negative, whereas the impact of the CPU index is generally positive. While, according to the DCC-GARCH framework, CPU dominates risk spillover, indicating that transition risks are substantially greater than physical risks. The CU index remains relatively stable and positively correlated with various industries, whereas the CPU index shows no such correlation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 104390"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Supply chain finance and enterprise dual innovation: The perspective of breakthrough and incremental innovation 供应链金融与企业双重创新：突破与增量创新的视角

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104415

Yonghong Ma, Enjia Zhu

{"title":"Supply chain finance and enterprise dual innovation: The perspective of breakthrough and incremental innovation","authors":"Yonghong Ma, Enjia Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of supply chain finance (SCF) on enterprise innovation in China by developing a comprehensive SCF index and applying negative binomial regression to a dataset of Chinese listed firms spanning from 2010 to 2023. The findings indicate that higher levels of SCF significantly enhance innovation, with a particularly strong effect on incremental innovation compared to breakthrough innovation. The positive association between SCF and innovation is more prominent among state-owned enterprises, high-tech firms, and heavily polluting industries. Furthermore, the study reveals that enterprises with stronger environmental, social, and governance (ESG) competitive advantages experience a greater positive effect of SCF on innovation, especially incremental innovation. Notably, heightened investor attention amplifies the positive influence of SCF on incremental innovation but diminishes its effect on breakthrough innovation. This research advances the literature on supply chain finance and corporate innovation by investigating the moderating roles of ESG and investor attention, while also emphasizing variations in innovation outcomes based on ownership and industry characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 104415"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144271158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Financial distress likelihood of European SMEs in times of economic policy uncertainty: The role of family ownership and performance aspirations 经济政策不确定时期欧洲中小企业财务困境的可能性：家族所有权和绩效愿望的作用

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104418

Fadi Hawach , Ignacio Requejo

引用次数: 0

Empty pledges and powerless conventions: How transition climate risks are disrupting financial markets? 空洞的承诺和无力的公约：气候转型风险如何扰乱金融市场？

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104384

Hany Fahmy

{"title":"Empty pledges and powerless conventions: How transition climate risks are disrupting financial markets?","authors":"Hany Fahmy","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose mention volume index (MVI) as a novel alternative measure of attention to Google's search volume index (SVI). We construct several physical and transition climate risk indexes as shocks to corresponding climate MVIs that we construct by employing textual analysis on climate change narratives on social media between July 2010 and 2022. Using predictive regressions and several test assets, we investigate the response of asset prices to our climate risk indexes at the market level and the asset level. The predictions of our physical climate risk indexes support three stylized findings in the climate finance literature: (i) the carbon premium hypothesis, (ii) the rise in investors' awareness after the Paris Agreement, and (iii) the prediction that green firms outperform brown firms when concerns about weather risk increase unexpectedly. The predictions of our transition climate risk indexes provide new evidence documenting noise trading behavior in the form of return reversal an excess volatility in aggregate market level indexes following unexpected increases in attention to climate pledges and conventions. Moreover, at the asset-level, a rise in attention to climate pledges today is associated with an initial increase (decrease) in the returns of green (brown) firms on the second day. These responses are reversed on the fourth day. Peak and sentiment analyses of climate mentions around these events show that the return reversal is due to the backtracking and the lack of credibility of these promises. Finally, we find that the ineffectiveness of the U.S. carbon policy triggers flight to safety to the bond mutual fund market and disrupts the performance of green (but not brown) firms' stock prices. Unexpected increases in concerns about carbon policy risk on social media today is associated with an initial increase in green returns on the third day that is almost entirely reversed on the fourth day.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 104384"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144329879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of chief economists in financial institutions on capital market development 金融机构首席经济学家对资本市场发展的影响

IF 7.5 1区经济学

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104403

Muyuan He , Aizhen Chen , Yutong Han , Chengying He , Xiaoxu Geng

{"title":"Effects of chief economists in financial institutions on capital market development","authors":"Muyuan He , Aizhen Chen , Yutong Han , Chengying He , Xiaoxu Geng","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104403","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104403","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we investigate the effects of chief economists employed by securities companies on the development of capital market. Utilizing securities companies in China from 2006 to 2022 as the research subjects, the paper employs Python algorithms to construct an index of chief economists and combines the Douglas function to deduce the conclusion that chief economists have played a positive role in the process where securities companies serve the capital market. Among them, the higher the social influence and the stronger the research ability are, the more prominent the professional ability of chief economists becomes, and the more effective the service of securities companies to the capital market is. Additionally, machine learning models such as decision trees and random forests disclose the non-linear characteristics of the impact of the chief economist system on the effectiveness of securities companies in serving the capital market. The conclusion of this paper furnishes valuable evidence for securities companies of this kind to leverage their own resources to advance the development of the capital market and also expands the economic effects brought about by the chief economist system for society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 104403"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144291074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0