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Centralized exchanges & proof-of-solvency: The guardians of trust 中心化交易所和偿付能力证明：信任的守护者
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102183
David Vidal-Tomás
{"title":"Centralized exchanges & proof-of-solvency: The guardians of trust","authors":"David Vidal-Tomás","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102183","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102183","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The stability and transparency of centralized cryptocurrency exchanges have received limited attention, despite their growing role in digital asset markets. This paper analyzes their stability through proof-of-assets disclosures. Using an AR-GARCH framework and MVaR assessment, we evaluate centralized exchange resilience during the extreme events of 2022 within the impersonal trust framework of Shapiro (1987). Our findings highlight that the FTX and Celsius bankruptcies had the most detrimental impact on market stability, while stablecoins played a dual role—enhancing resilience under normal conditions but posing systemic risks in the event of failure. Additionally, exchanges should maintain extra reserves of 6% to 14% to withstand adverse events and improve resilience during periods of stress. Paradoxically, the cryptocurrency ecosystem, designed to reduce reliance on trust, now demands even more “guardians of trust” than traditional finance to create a trustworthy environment for participants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102183"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144322818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign credit rating downgrades and Growth-at-Risk 主权信用评级下调，经济增长面临风险
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102195
George Kladakis , Alexandros Skouralis
{"title":"Sovereign credit rating downgrades and Growth-at-Risk","authors":"George Kladakis ,&nbsp;Alexandros Skouralis","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102195","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102195","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines whether sovereign credit rating changes are linked to increased future macroeconomic downside risks based on the Growth-at-Risk framework by <span><span>Adrian et al. (2019)</span></span>. Our findings reveal that downgrades significantly increase tail risk by lowering the 5th percentile of four-quarters ahead GDP growth by 2.95 percentage points, whereas upgrades yield a smaller and inconsistent effect of 0.45 percentage points. Standard panel OLS results show a reduced impact of 1.11 percentage points on GDP growth following a downgrade, underscoring the importance of examining effects beyond the mean. Further analysis reveals an asymmetrical impact across quantiles and time horizons, with speculative-grade countries particularly vulnerable to downgrades. Downgrades from all major agencies affect tail risk, with Fitch having the largest negative impact, while only Moody’s upgrades have a significant effect. Moreover, our empirical evidence suggests that the effect of credit rating downgrades is, at least partially mitigated, by the adoption of post-GFC regulatory reforms, aligning with these policies’ aim to reduce reliance on CRAs and enhance financial stability. Lastly, our analysis identifies investment and sovereign bond spreads as key channels through which downgrades affect macroeconomic outcomes, however, only the latter is significantly associated with downside risks to GDP growth. Robustness tests that include endogeneity checks, additional controls, alternative CRA data and quantile regression methodology, confirm our findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102195"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144470773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of US bank liquidity and regulations in Covered Interest Parity deviations 美国银行流动性和监管在利差平价偏离中的作用
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102173
Walter Bazán-Palomino, Marco Ortiz, Marco E. Terrones, Diego Winkelried
{"title":"The role of US bank liquidity and regulations in Covered Interest Parity deviations","authors":"Walter Bazán-Palomino,&nbsp;Marco Ortiz,&nbsp;Marco E. Terrones,&nbsp;Diego Winkelried","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102173","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how private bank regulation and liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve in the US are related to deviations from the covered interest parity (CIP). We find evidence that the effects of bank liquidity on CIP deviations partially offset those resulting from regulatory changes in a sample of 11 OECD countries over the 2001-2019 period. This finding supports the conjecture that changes in private banks’ liquidity and regulation can significantly affect the cross-currency basis. Interestingly, the effects of liquidity on CIP deviations become more pronounced as bank regulation intensifies, reflecting interaction effects. One implication is that stricter regulations may amplify liquidity-related distortions, thereby increasing CIP deviations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 102173"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144194766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An intertemporal international asset pricing model: Theory and evidence 跨期国际资产定价模型：理论与证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102162
Gady Jacoby , Rose C. Liao , Yan Wang , Zhenyu Wu
{"title":"An intertemporal international asset pricing model: Theory and evidence","authors":"Gady Jacoby ,&nbsp;Rose C. Liao ,&nbsp;Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Zhenyu Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102162","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102162","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We utilize an intertemporal CAPM (Merton, 1973) framework to examine how exposure to currency risk is priced in foreign equity markets. We identify the fundamental determinants of foreign equity return and foreign currency loadings with respect to a world equity factor and global currency risk factor. To capture the time-varying nature of risk exposures, we employ the mean-reverting dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model of Engle (2002) to estimate conditional covariances and betas. Our regression results show that estimated risk-return coefficients on betas and covariances are significant and robust to subsample tests based on emerging markets and developed markets. We also show that the risk-return tradeoff on foreign equity returns and relative risk aversion vary cyclically across financial stress regimes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 102162"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143843895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The stock market and corporate consequences of ethical exclusions by the world’s largest fund 全球最大基金的道德排斥对股市和企业的影响
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102174
Erika Berle, Wanwei (Angela) He, Bernt Arne Ødegaard
{"title":"The stock market and corporate consequences of ethical exclusions by the world’s largest fund","authors":"Erika Berle,&nbsp;Wanwei (Angela) He,&nbsp;Bernt Arne Ødegaard","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the stock market and corporate consequences of ethically motivated portfolio exclusions. The divestments by Norway’s “Oil Fund,” the world’s largest SWF, provide a sample of stocks facing widespread exclusions by institutional investors. We estimate a return premium (alpha) of about 5% for this “unethical portfolio.” We also consider firms where the oil funds’ exclusion has been reversed. For this portfolio of “newly ethical firms” we do not find a return premium going forward. We investigate to what extent these results can be directly linked to the Oil Fund’s actions. We do not find evidence of a causal link. We investigate the corporate reactions to exclusions. Only 14% of the excluded firms make sufficient changes to their operations for the exclusions to be revoked.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 102174"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The countercyclicality of microlending rates: Does the business model of microfinance institutions matter? 小额贷款利率的反周期：小额贷款机构的商业模式重要吗？
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102163
Hélyoth T.S. Hessou , Hubert Tchakoute Tchuigoua
{"title":"The countercyclicality of microlending rates: Does the business model of microfinance institutions matter?","authors":"Hélyoth T.S. Hessou ,&nbsp;Hubert Tchakoute Tchuigoua","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102163","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102163","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are critical to financial inclusion in developing countries, but face challenges in maintaining profitability while serving low-income populations, particularly during economic downturns. This study examines whether MFIs adjust interest rates in response to the business cycle, hypothesizing an increase during downturns. Analyzing data from 1,711 MFIs over 16 years (2003–2018), we find a negative relationship between interest rates and the business cycle. However, certain MFI characteristics mitigate this countercyclical behavior. Specifically, MFIs in the top tertile of the group lending method, deposit-taking MFIs, and subsidy-based MFIs show less cyclical interest rate behavior, contributing to greater stability. Further analysis sheds light on the mechanisms underlying this countercyclical behavior, leading to two main conclusions. First, shareholder-based MFIs tend to raise interest rates during economic downturns, suggesting that profit maximization drives the countercyclical effect. Second, increases in provisioning and funding costs are passed on to borrowers through higher interest rates during downturns. Using propensity score matching and Lewbel’s (2012) instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity concerns, our findings remain robust and consistent across different econometric specifications and measures of the business cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 102163"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Female directors and social responsibility of microfinance institutions 小额信贷机构女董事与社会责任
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102164
Kais Bouslah , Qian (Jan) Li , Asma Mobarek
{"title":"Female directors and social responsibility of microfinance institutions","authors":"Kais Bouslah ,&nbsp;Qian (Jan) Li ,&nbsp;Asma Mobarek","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102164","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102164","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate whether female directors influence the social responsibility of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs). We also explore the factors that might affect the influence of female directors on the <em>different</em> dimensions of MFIs’ social responsibility. Using an international sample of 362 MFIs during the sample period 2010–2018, we find that the impact of female directors on social responsibility of MFIs is positive and not uniform across the various dimensions of social responsibility. We also find that the impact of female board members on MFIs’ social responsibility is stronger when MFIs are structured as not-for-profit organizations. However, local cultural gender values and institutional strength do not affect the relationship between female board members and the social responsibility of MFIs. We contribute to the emerging research stream of women’s representation in the boardrooms of organizations supplying public goods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 102164"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144090346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Banking crises and the performance of microfinance institutions 银行危机与小额信贷机构的表现
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102166
Valentina Hartarska , Denis Nadolnyak , Rui Chen
{"title":"Banking crises and the performance of microfinance institutions","authors":"Valentina Hartarska ,&nbsp;Denis Nadolnyak ,&nbsp;Rui Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102166","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102166","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Banking crises affect both banks and their clients, yet their impact on microfinance institutions (MFIs) that serve marginalized populations excluded from the formal financial system remains underexplored. This study examines the effects of banking crises on MFIs using panel data from 1,746 institutions across 123 countries, including five that experienced crises between 2004 and 2017. Despite limitations in the available data, the analysis reveals that most MFIs did not suffer adverse effects on financial performance or outreach, nor did they exhibit mission drift away from their traditional client base. However, microfinance banks—a subset of MFIs—did experience mission drift during banking crises. The findings suggest that MFIs’ resilience stems from their unique characteristics and focus on marginalized clients who often operate within the informal or semi-formal economy. The study highlights the resilience of the microfinance sector and the potential vulnerabilities among microfinance banks, offering insights for donors and stakeholders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 102166"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143879150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of margin trading, stock index futures, and firm characteristics on stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China 融资融券交易、股指期货和企业特征对股价同步性的影响：来自中国的证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102165
Mohan Fonseka , Yulong Ma , Chengcheng Bei , Lalith P. Samarakoon
{"title":"The effect of margin trading, stock index futures, and firm characteristics on stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China","authors":"Mohan Fonseka ,&nbsp;Yulong Ma ,&nbsp;Chengcheng Bei ,&nbsp;Lalith P. Samarakoon","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102165","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102165","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effects of margin trading and stock index futures and the moderating role of firm-level and institution-level characteristics on stock price synchronicity in the Chinese stock markets. We find that both margin trading and stock index futures are positively correlated with stock price synchronicity. Margin trading and stock index futures have greater effects on state-owned enterprises (SOEs), firms with political connections, and firms with male CEOs. Domestic-listed firms and firms in regions with less institutional efficiency experience stronger effects of margin trading and stock index futures on stock price synchronicity. The financial crisis has a negative impact on the above relationships. Overall, margin trading exhibits a stronger effect on stock price synchronicity than stock index futures. Furthermore, we find that the breadth of institutional ownership, management entrenchment, transparency, and information asymmetry are significant channels in moderating the effect of margin trading and stock index futures on stock price synchronicity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 102165"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143907647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The causal effects of equity flows: Evidence from Korea 股权流动的因果效应：来自韩国的证据
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102175
Jun Hee Kwak , Bada Han , Jae Young Lee
{"title":"The causal effects of equity flows: Evidence from Korea","authors":"Jun Hee Kwak ,&nbsp;Bada Han ,&nbsp;Jae Young Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102175","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102175","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we estimate the causal effects of gross equity inflows into an open economy using the Granular Instrument Variable (GIV) constructed from regulatory data on foreign investments in the Korean stock market. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in monthly foreign inflows into the Korean stock market results in approximately a 2.2% rise in the Korean benchmark stock price index and a 1.0% appreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar. These foreign inflows also lead to drops in short-term treasury bond rates and improvements in dollar funding conditions. Our empirical results are consistent with the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"102 ","pages":"Article 102175"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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