{"title":"Climate risk and predictability of global stock market volatility","authors":"Mingtao Zhou, Yong Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102135","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102135","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the informative role of climate risk in improving the predictability of global stock market volatility. By aggregating four climate risk proxies of Faccini et al. (2023), relating to physical climate impacts and climate mitigation actions, we reveal that aggregate climate risk is a significantly positive predictor of stock volatility across 32 international markets. This predictability persists in out-of-sample tests and cannot be subsumed by relevant economic and financial uncertainty measures. However, the predictive power of aggregate climate risk exhibits noteworthy variations over time and across regions; it weakens when economic conditions deteriorate, whereas it strengthens following the Paris Agreement and in regions with advanced financial development, high energy intensity, and strong climate change readiness. Moreover, by dissecting the multiple facets of climate risk, we show that physical risks, especially natural disasters, have much stronger predictability than transition risks. These predictive insights offer valuable guidance for risk management, policy planning, and the adjustment of asset pricing models in response to the evolving global climate risk landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102135"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of corporate diversification on liquidity management: Evidence from lines of credit","authors":"Christina Atanasova, Frederick H. Willeboordse","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of organizational structure on corporate liquidity, specifically focusing on how business diversification influences firms’ choice between bank lines of credit and cash holdings. Using a large sample of publicly traded companies from both developed and emerging markets, we observe that diversified firms operating across multiple industries (segments) tend to rely more heavily on bank lines of credit than their more focused counterparts. We find that lower correlations in the investment opportunities across business segments and higher correlations between investment opportunities and cash flows are associated with a greater reliance on bank lines of credit as a source of corporate liquidity. Moreover, for Emerging Market firms that face binding financial constraints, the effect of diversification on liquidity management is stronger. Our findings do not support the notion that this behavior is driven by diversified firms with lower aggregate risk or better corporate governance. Instead, the results are consistent with the monitored insurance hypothesis, where diversified firms with lower liquidity risk and hedging requirements use bank lines of credit more extensively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102139"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yunhao Dai , Xu Huang , Weiqiang Tan , Daifei (Troy) Yao
{"title":"Religious similarity in mergers and acquisitions","authors":"Yunhao Dai , Xu Huang , Weiqiang Tan , Daifei (Troy) Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102138","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102138","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of regional religious similarity on merger and acquisition (M&A) likelihood and post-merger outcomes, diverging from prior research that treats religious adherents as a homogeneous group. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of mergers, we find that pairs of firms with more similar regional religious compositions are more likely to engage in M&As and experience improved merger announcement returns. This religious alignment between acquiring and target firms is also linked to superior post-merger operating performance and efficiency. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that employee integration serves as a critical channel through which these performance gains are realized. Market reactions to merger announcements are more favorable when the target firm has a larger workforce, operates in the same industry, or the acquiring firm is more diversified than the target. Our findings suggest that religious similarity fosters mutual understanding, builds trust, and reduces friction in collaborative efforts, making it a significant driver of post-merger synergy. These insights extend beyond the context of any single market, highlighting the broader role of cultural alignment in enhancing M&A success.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102138"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"ESG ratings: Disagreement across providers and effects on stock returns","authors":"Giulio Anselmi, Giovanni Petrella","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the ESG ratings assigned by two providers, LSEG and Bloomberg, to companies listed in Europe and the United States from 2010 to 2020. The objective is to document the path of the ESG ratings over time, the divergence of opinions across providers, and whether the ESG dimension affects stock returns. The ESG scores have increased significantly over time, both in Europe and the United States, and<!--> <!-->higher scores are common for larger firms with low credit risk and lower equity returns. Once risk factors have been considered, the ESG dimension does not affect stock returns. The divergence of opinions across rating providers is vast and mainly increasing, especially in the US and for the social component. A wide divergence of opinions on the ESG score does not favour the correct pricing of the ESG risks and weakens the link between investors’ ESG preferences and the performance of stocks with better ESG metrics. However, disagreement across providers should not be considered only negatively as it can enrich the information set and avoid rating over-reliance (which proved to be a vital issue in the 2007–2009 financial crisis).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102133"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on emerging markets: Evidence from transnational supply chains","authors":"Jieying Gao , Qi Qin , Shengjie Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides empirical evidence on the role of transnational supply chains in the cross-border transmission of US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) to emerging markets. Using data from 22 emerging economies between 2003 and 2022, we find that US EPU significantly increases the risk for firms connected to US supply chains, compared to those operating solely in local markets. The key mechanisms driving this risk transmission are the capital chain (measured by trade credit) and the product chain (reflected in inventory turnover). Cross-sectional analyses show that firms in politically sensitive industries, with constrained financing, and those with higher participation in transnational supply chains experience a more pronounced impact from US EPU. We also observe adverse effects on other aspects of firm performance, including operating income and return on assets. Together these findings highlight the need for emerging markets to actively manage spillover risks arising from US EPU.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102136"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From the executive suite to the environment: How does CEO power affect climate change disclosures?","authors":"Sudipta Bose , Sabri Boubaker , Hussein Daradkeh , Syed Shams","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the relationship between CEO power and corporate climate change disclosure and the moderating role of internal and external monitoring in this relationship. Using a sample of 3,512 United States firm-year observations, we find that firms with more powerful CEOs disclose less climate change information. However, this negative relationship is mitigated in firms with higher institutional ownership, greater financial analyst coverage, and stronger internal governance. Our results remain robust across a series of tests designed to address both observable and unobservable selection biases, as well as omitted variable biases. Further analysis reveals that reduced firm-level transparency is an underlying channel through which CEO power diminishes climate change disclosures. Additionally, we document that climate change disclosure acts as an underlying mechanism linking CEO power to firm value. The findings of our study have important implications for regulators, policymakers, researchers, investors, analysts, and company management, especially in the context of increasing regulatory pressure on firms to enhance their climate change disclosures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102140"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ming-Yuan Yang , Zhe-Kai Chen , Jingwen Hu , Yiru Chen , Xin Wu
{"title":"Multidimensional information spillover between cryptocurrencies and China’s financial markets under shocks from stringent government regulations","authors":"Ming-Yuan Yang , Zhe-Kai Chen , Jingwen Hu , Yiru Chen , Xin Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102134","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the multidimensional spillover effects between cryptocurrencies and China’s financial markets within a time-varying variance decomposition framework. Using the event study method, we examine the impact of China’s stringent regulations on the spillover effects between cryptocurrencies and China’s financial markets. Additionally, we employ multilayer network analysis to uncover interactions among different spillover dimensions. We find that (i) there are significant multidimensional spillover effects between cryptocurrencies and financial markets in China, with cryptocurrencies serving as net transmitters and China’s financial markets as the primary receivers across different dimensions. (ii) The stringent regulations imposed by the Chinese government on the cryptocurrency market significantly impact the information spillover between cryptocurrencies and China’s financial markets in all three dimensions. (iii) Nodes in different layers of the multilayer spillover network have distinct levels of importance and characteristics, so it is essential to consider all possible spillover effects when making investment decisions and managing risks. These findings have important implications for investors when they assess risk and construct diversified portfolios, and for regulators when they formulate policies for risk regulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102134"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Teresa Corzo , Karin Martin-Bujack , Jose Portela , Alejandro Rodríguez-Gallego
{"title":"Exchange rate regime changes and market efficiency: An event study","authors":"Teresa Corzo , Karin Martin-Bujack , Jose Portela , Alejandro Rodríguez-Gallego","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study conducts a pioneering assessment of the efficiency of floating versus pegged exchange rate regimes and the effect of regime changes on market efficiency. Using daily exchange rates and fractal analysis, we characterize 81 currencies over a period of 23 years. The extensive sample covers 86.6 % of IMF members and 77.8 % of global GDP. The findings reveal high market efficiency in floating regimes, while pegged regimes display predominantly mean-reverting behavior. In addition, from the difference-in-differences and panel event study methodologies, we present new evidence indicating positive (negative) effects on efficiency when shifting to floating (pegged) regimes, with movements unfolding gradually over time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102132"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multiple large shareholders and controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors","authors":"Feng Wei, Lei Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using manually collected data on directors appointed by controlling shareholders, we find a positive association between the presence of multiple large shareholders (MLS) and controlling shareholders over-appointing of directors. We then provide evidence to show that the purpose of controlling shareholders to over-appoint directors in firms with MLS is to gain the advantage of control contests and resist monitoring by other large shareholders. Furthermore, our results indicate that foreign shareholders are more likely to compete for control with local controlling shareholders and to monitor them, leading to controlling shareholders over-appoint more directors. We also document that the relationship between MLS and controlling shareholders’ over-appointing of directors is less pronounced in firms with longer director tenure, a separate nomination committee and foreign directors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102124"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yigit Atilgan , K. Ozgur Demirtas , A. Doruk Gunaydin , Aynur Dilan Tosun , Duygu Zirek
{"title":"Aggregate earnings and global equity returns","authors":"Yigit Atilgan , K. Ozgur Demirtas , A. Doruk Gunaydin , Aynur Dilan Tosun , Duygu Zirek","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper compares the predictive power of aggregate earnings for equity returns in international markets. We rank 51 non-US countries based on the time-series averages of their price synchronicity and market concentration measures, calculated at the firm level using daily data. We find that aggregate earnings negatively predict one-quarter-ahead stock returns in country groups that contain less synchronous and concentrated markets, as opposed to country groups that contain more synchronous and concentrated markets. We attribute the negative predictive power of aggregate earnings to a business cycle effect because high (low) corporate earnings correspond to economic expansions (contractions) that tend to be associated with negative (positive) risk premia. However, this business cycle effect is offset by the positive relation between firm-level earnings and future stock returns that translates to the aggregate level in more synchronous and concentrated markets due to a lower degree of diversification. Our results remain robust after controlling for various macroeconomic variables and in alternative subsamples.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102125"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143419312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}