{"title":"Managing cryptocurrency risk exposures in equity portfolios: Evidence from high-frequency data","authors":"Minhao Leong , Vitali Alexeev , Simon Kwok","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the evolving relationships between cryptocurrencies and equity portfolios and find that Bitcoin’s contributions to the active risks of equity portfolios have grown over time, exceeding 10% in defensive strategies. This underscores the increasing importance of investment professionals quantifying and managing crypto-related risk exposures in their portfolios, a task for which we provide guidance. For risk measurement, we use intraday returns to significantly improve the forecast accuracy of equity portfolio sensitivities to cryptocurrency risks. For risk management, we advocate direct hedging for optimal risk reduction and suggest using stock selection constraints as an alternative approach to limit the influence of cryptocurrencies on portfolio risk exposures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102123"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Nonlinearity in the nexus between financial development and wealth inequality","authors":"Dong-Hyeon Kim , Peiyao Liu , Shu-Chin Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rising income and wealth inequality have renewed interest in their determinants, positioning the financial sector as a central focus of the ongoing debate. Nevertheless, controversy persists regarding the relationship between financial development and economic inequality. While much of the empirical literature focuses on income inequality, wealth inequality has received comparatively less attention. Given the extreme concentration of wealth and its influence on economic opportunity and political power, this paper explores whether it is excessive or insufficient financial development that contributes to the widening disparities in wealth distribution. Using a cross-country panel data framework, the study finds that financial development exacerbates wealth inequality by increasing wealth concentration at the top and diminishing wealth shares in the bottom 50% up to a certain threshold. Beyond this point, financial development results in a reduction of top wealth shares and an increase in the wealth shares of the bottom 50%, thereby narrowing wealth inequality. A similar pattern is observed for income inequality. Pathway analyses indicate that these effects are partially mediated through entrepreneurship. Insufficient financial development adversely impacts both wealth and income distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102117"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Downside belief disagreements and financial instability: Evidence from risk factor disclosures in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings","authors":"Rui Li , Jianping Li , Xiaoqian Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At what point does the shift from a stable to an unstable financial system occur? This study develops the first measurement of downside belief disagreements by utilizing the qualitative disclosures of risk factors in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings. We show that the transition into financial instability occurs with a large increase in downside belief disagreements. Notably, it is not only downside belief disagreements but also its interaction with rapid credit expansion that matters for financial stability risks. We further conduct mechanism tests and find that downside belief disagreements harm financial stability by imposing credit constraints and price reductions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102118"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yu-Lun Chen , Yi-Hua Li , Wan-Shin Mo , J. Jimmy Yang
{"title":"Covered interest rate parity deviations, COVID-19 pandemic infection cases, and vaccination","authors":"Yu-Lun Chen , Yi-Hua Li , Wan-Shin Mo , J. Jimmy Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) for G10 currencies. We find that a higher number of COVID-19 infection cases and a higher stringency index, which captures the strictness of policies and government interventions, are associated with larger CIP deviations. However, this relation disappears after COVID-19 vaccines became available. This finding indicates that vaccines not only represent a significant advancement in combating the coronavirus but also contribute to improving efficiency in the FX market by mitigating uncertainty and stabilizing economic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the rise of the U.S. dollar during the COVID-19 pandemic contributes to persistent deviations from CIP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102122"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Governmental venture capital and investor sentiment: Evidence from Chinese government guidance funds","authors":"Xinfei Huang , Yue Zhang , Zhe Zong","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102120","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102120","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the role of government-backed venture capital (GVC) in influencing companies’ operating performance has been well-documented, its potential impact on the financial market remains less explored. This paper aims to fill this gap in the context of China’s venture capital market. Since 2002, the Chinese government has launched a type of policy VC fund—government guidance funds (GGFs)—to stimulate innovation, industrial transformation, and local economic growth. Using a sample of 2,860 IPO companies from 2010 to 2021, we show that GGF-backed IPOs exhibited higher initial returns than both non-VC-backed and non-GGF VC-backed IPOs. A decomposition of the initial returns reveals that this effect was driven by market overvaluation rather than IPO price discounts. Consistent with investor sentiment and signaling theory, our results suggest that investors held optimistic views towards GGF-backed companies. However, when assessing post-IPO operating and innovation performance, GGF-backed companies did not outperform their counterparts. Overall, this paper highlights the signaling effects of GGFs in the financial market and provides important policy implications for the design of GVC programs worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102120"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez , Jorge M. Uribe , Oscar M. Valencia
{"title":"Sovereign debt cost and economic complexity","authors":"Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez , Jorge M. Uribe , Oscar M. Valencia","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how a country’s economic complexity impacts its sovereign yield spread relative to the U.S. A one-unit increase in the Economic Complexity Index reduces the 10-year yield spread by about 61 basis points, though this effect is non-significant for maturities under three years, affecting the spread curve slope. Using causal machine learning and predictive models, economic complexity is a top predictor alongside inflation and institutional factors. The paper explores mechanisms through which economic complexity reduces sovereign risk, emphasizing its role in productivity, output, income stability, and the likelihood of fiscal crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102121"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yang Su , Junrui Zhang , Hong Zhao , Mingming Zhou
{"title":"Other comprehensive income volatility and bank risk","authors":"Yang Su , Junrui Zhang , Hong Zhao , Mingming Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we explore how banks manage risk in response to Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) volatility. We find that banks with high OCI volatility decrease perceived risk while increasing their contribution to systemic risk. As strategies in response to OCI volatility, banks reduce available-for-sale (AFS) holdings and loans, and expand the off-balance-sheet (OBS) entrusted loans and wealth management products. The effects on systemic risk and OBS activities are more pronounced under tight monetary policy but less so under macroprudential supervision. These results indicate that OCI captures the attention of banks in their risk management, yet their response to OCI volatility intensifies systemic fragility. The enforcement of OCI disclosure should be complemented by effective macroprudential supervision to ensure financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102115"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ex ante bond returns and time-varying monotonicity","authors":"Hamid Yahyaei , Abhay Singh, Tom Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the dynamics of U.S. Treasury term premia by applying and extending the nonparametric framework of Boudoukh, Richardson, Smith, and Whitelaw (1999) into a time-varying test of monotonicity. The framework exploits conditioning variables with economic relevance to the business cycle, which a priori predict non-monotonic Treasury returns to permit a formal test of the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis (LPH). Conditioning ex ante returns against inversion in the yield curve, restrictive monetary policy rates, and negative investor sentiment reveals a non-monotonic term premium on Treasury bills. In contrast, term premia on portfolios comprising longer-term Treasury notes are primarily monotonic but exhibit non-monotonicity that coincides with unexpected macroeconomic shocks. When interest rates reach the zero lower bound, term premia are universally monotonic, demonstrating the Federal Reserve’s ability to normalise the yield curve. Ultimately, we illustrate the importance of accounting for the time-varying behaviour of the term premium, especially as changes in the business cycle influence the term structure of interest rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102114"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Extractive institutions and banks’ implicit subsidies","authors":"Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos , Rafael Schiozer","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate whether banks located in countries with extractive institutions benefit from larger implicit subsidies, using a sample of banks from 35 countries. We conjecture that the banking systems in countries with extractive institutions have the political and economic powers to lead governments to absorb banks’ distress risk and use public resources to guarantee banks’ survival in distressed events. This creates <em>ex-ante</em> implicit subsidies that reduce banks’ cost of equity financing in these countries. To reinforce the causal evidence, we explore variations in external democratic capital as an instrument for institutional exploitation. Our results indicate that the less extractive the institutional environment, the lower the banks’ implicit subsidies. In countries with less extractive institutions, regulatory instruments are more likely to be adopted, such as bail-in rules and tighter bank resolution frameworks. These policies reduce regulators’ discretion to use public resources to save distressed banks when these interventions are welfare decreasing, reducing <em>ex-ante</em> implicit subsidies enjoyed by the financial sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102119"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Banking regulation and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from regulatory penalties in China","authors":"Yuanbiao Huang , Jinlei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Utilizing data from administrative penalty announcements by the former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), we analyze the impact of banking regulatory penalties on corporate R&D investment. Our findings indicate that stringent regulatory penalties crowd out corporate R&D investment by reducing the availability of loans and increasing borrowing costs, with a particularly pronounced effect of disciplinary actions and disqualifications, economic penalties, and loan-related penalties. Further analysis reveals that the crowding-out effect is more pronounced among firms with smaller asset sizes and lower internal financing. However, bank competition and international expansion significantly mitigate this crowding-out effect. Additionally, we find that regulatory penalties only crowd out R&D investment within the year following the penalty, with no direct evidence indicating a reduction in patent applications. Our study highlights that rigorous banking regulatory penalties may have a short-term adverse impact on corporate R&D investment, suggesting that regulatory authorities should balance the stability of the financial system with the development of the real economy when enforcing punitive actions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102112"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143183701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}