Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

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Sovereign credit rating provision and financial development
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102153
Oskar Kowalewski , Prabesh Luitel , Rosanne Vanpée
{"title":"Sovereign credit rating provision and financial development","authors":"Oskar Kowalewski ,&nbsp;Prabesh Luitel ,&nbsp;Rosanne Vanpée","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102153","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102153","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of obtaining a sovereign credit rating for the first time on financial development in 50 emerging countries. Controlling for endogeneity and selection bias, we show that receiving an initial sovereign credit rating significantly transforms domestic financial systems. Rated countries experience a reallocation of bank assets, reduced reliance on domestic bank financing, and increased access to international bond markets, enabling expanded private-sector credit. Sovereign ratings also stimulate local currency bond market development and enhance foreign currency bond issuance. Additionally, they attract portfolio equity inflows and foster the internationalization of domestic banks, though their effects on direct debt flows and FDI are less pronounced. Overall, our findings highlight the critical role of sovereign credit ratings in advancing financial development and integration in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102153"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143641922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Could an economy get stuck on a rational pessimism sunspot path? The case of Japan
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102142
Vo Phuong Mai Le , David Meenagh , Patrick Minford
{"title":"Could an economy get stuck on a rational pessimism sunspot path? The case of Japan","authors":"Vo Phuong Mai Le ,&nbsp;David Meenagh ,&nbsp;Patrick Minford","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102142","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102142","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Developed economies have experienced slower growth since the 2008 financial crisis, creating fears of “secular stagnation.” Rational expectations models have forward-looking sunspot solutions, which could cause this; here we investigate the case of Japan. We show that a New Keynesian model with a weak equilibrium growth path driven by pessimism sunspot belief shocks matches Japanese economic behaviour. Another possibility is a conventional model where productivity growth has simply slowed down for unknown reasons. Nevertheless, a welfare-optimising approach implies fiscal policy should commit to eliminating the potential sunspot while being prepared to revert to normal policy if inflation rises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102142"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143637202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does inflation targeting track record matter for asset prices? Evidence from stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102141
Zhongxia Zhang
{"title":"Does inflation targeting track record matter for asset prices? Evidence from stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets","authors":"Zhongxia Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102141","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102141","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many central banks have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy frameworks since 1990. Yet, monetary authorities’ track records of managing inflation with respect to the stated policy objectives have varied significantly. This paper examines how inflation targeting track records affect asset prices within three common asset classes: stocks, bonds, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals heterogeneous and enduring effects of track records on financial markets. A stronger track record in inflation targeting leads to a more negative reaction from stock markets to inflationary pressures, with effects persisting for about four quarters. Additionally, the sensitivity of rising long-term sovereign bond yields to inflation diminishes for about three quarters as the track record improves. Moreover, credible inflation targeters are more likely to allow greater flexibility in exchange rates to deal with inflationary shocks. Consequently, credible inflation targeting track records produce desirable policy outcomes by reinforcing monetary policy transmission and saving fiscal space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102141"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143592075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of the counter-cyclical factor on renminbi co-movements
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102144
Yike Sun
{"title":"The effects of the counter-cyclical factor on renminbi co-movements","authors":"Yike Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102144","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102144","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The counter-cyclical factor is a foreign exchange policy instrument employed by the Chinese monetary authority to adjust the central parity rate of the renminbi (RMB). This study examines how this policy tool influences the RMB’s co-movements with other currencies. A novel measure of the counter-cyclical factor’s intensity is derived from a rolling estimation of the RMB two-pillar model, enabling a more precise evaluation of the factor’s role. This measure is then incorporated into a modified Frankel–Wei model to assess the factor’s influence. Empirical results indicate that, although the counter-cyclical factor is applied more intensively during the second implementation phase, it reduces RMB co-movements more significantly during the first phase. Further analysis suggests that the initial implementation induces notable RMB appreciation, which in turn weakens the RMB’s correlations with other currencies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102144"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143592166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond education: International student inflow and outbound cross-border mergers and acquisitions
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102143
Hao Wang , Shuting Tan , Yonghui Han
{"title":"Beyond education: International student inflow and outbound cross-border mergers and acquisitions","authors":"Hao Wang ,&nbsp;Shuting Tan ,&nbsp;Yonghui Han","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of international education exchange on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMA). Using a comprehensive panel dataset covering 141 countries from 2006 to 2018, we find that international students studying in China have a positive impact on China’s outbound CBMA. Such an effect operates through diplomatic relations, economic cooperation and cultural convergence as the underlying mechanisms. The effect of international education exchange is more pronounced for degree-seeking students than for non-degree-seeking students. Moreover, non-degree-seeking scholarship recipients exert a stronger influence on CBMA than degree-seeking scholarship recipients.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102143"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143576746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate risk and predictability of global stock market volatility
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102135
Mingtao Zhou, Yong Ma
{"title":"Climate risk and predictability of global stock market volatility","authors":"Mingtao Zhou,&nbsp;Yong Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102135","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102135","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the informative role of climate risk in improving the predictability of global stock market volatility. By aggregating four climate risk proxies of Faccini et al. (2023), relating to physical climate impacts and climate mitigation actions, we reveal that aggregate climate risk is a significantly positive predictor of stock volatility across 32 international markets. This predictability persists in out-of-sample tests and cannot be subsumed by relevant economic and financial uncertainty measures. However, the predictive power of aggregate climate risk exhibits noteworthy variations over time and across regions; it weakens when economic conditions deteriorate, whereas it strengthens following the Paris Agreement and in regions with advanced financial development, high energy intensity, and strong climate change readiness. Moreover, by dissecting the multiple facets of climate risk, we show that physical risks, especially natural disasters, have much stronger predictability than transition risks. These predictive insights offer valuable guidance for risk management, policy planning, and the adjustment of asset pricing models in response to the evolving global climate risk landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102135"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of corporate diversification on liquidity management: Evidence from lines of credit
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102139
Christina Atanasova, Frederick H. Willeboordse
{"title":"The impact of corporate diversification on liquidity management: Evidence from lines of credit","authors":"Christina Atanasova,&nbsp;Frederick H. Willeboordse","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of organizational structure on corporate liquidity, specifically focusing on how business diversification influences firms’ choice between bank lines of credit and cash holdings. Using a large sample of publicly traded companies from both developed and emerging markets, we observe that diversified firms operating across multiple industries (segments) tend to rely more heavily on bank lines of credit than their more focused counterparts. We find that lower correlations in the investment opportunities across business segments and higher correlations between investment opportunities and cash flows are associated with a greater reliance on bank lines of credit as a source of corporate liquidity. Moreover, for Emerging Market firms that face binding financial constraints, the effect of diversification on liquidity management is stronger. Our findings do not support the notion that this behavior is driven by diversified firms with lower aggregate risk or better corporate governance. Instead, the results are consistent with the monitored insurance hypothesis, where diversified firms with lower liquidity risk and hedging requirements use bank lines of credit more extensively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102139"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Religious similarity in mergers and acquisitions
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102138
Yunhao Dai , Xu Huang , Weiqiang Tan , Daifei (Troy) Yao
{"title":"Religious similarity in mergers and acquisitions","authors":"Yunhao Dai ,&nbsp;Xu Huang ,&nbsp;Weiqiang Tan ,&nbsp;Daifei (Troy) Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102138","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102138","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of regional religious similarity on merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) likelihood and post-merger outcomes, diverging from prior research that treats religious adherents as a homogeneous group. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of mergers, we find that pairs of firms with more similar regional religious compositions are more likely to engage in M&amp;As and experience improved merger announcement returns. This religious alignment between acquiring and target firms is also linked to superior post-merger operating performance and efficiency. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that employee integration serves as a critical channel through which these performance gains are realized. Market reactions to merger announcements are more favorable when the target firm has a larger workforce, operates in the same industry, or the acquiring firm is more diversified than the target. Our findings suggest that religious similarity fosters mutual understanding, builds trust, and reduces friction in collaborative efforts, making it a significant driver of post-merger synergy. These insights extend beyond the context of any single market, highlighting the broader role of cultural alignment in enhancing M&amp;A success.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102138"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ESG ratings: Disagreement across providers and effects on stock returns
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102133
Giulio Anselmi, Giovanni Petrella
{"title":"ESG ratings: Disagreement across providers and effects on stock returns","authors":"Giulio Anselmi,&nbsp;Giovanni Petrella","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the ESG ratings assigned by two providers, LSEG and Bloomberg, to companies listed in Europe and the United States from 2010 to 2020. The objective is to document the path of the ESG ratings over time, the divergence of opinions across providers, and whether the ESG dimension affects stock returns. The ESG scores have increased significantly over time, both in Europe and the United States, and<!--> <!-->higher scores are common for larger firms with low credit risk and lower equity returns. Once risk factors have been considered, the ESG dimension does not affect stock returns. The divergence of opinions across rating providers is vast and mainly increasing, especially in the US and for the social component. A wide divergence of opinions on the ESG score does not favour the correct pricing of the ESG risks and weakens the link between investors’ ESG preferences and the performance of stocks with better ESG metrics. However, disagreement across providers should not be considered only negatively as it can enrich the information set and avoid rating over-reliance (which proved to be a vital issue in the 2007–2009 financial crisis).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102133"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on emerging markets: Evidence from transnational supply chains
IF 5.4 2区 经济学
Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102136
Jieying Gao , Qi Qin , Shengjie Zhou
{"title":"Spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on emerging markets: Evidence from transnational supply chains","authors":"Jieying Gao ,&nbsp;Qi Qin ,&nbsp;Shengjie Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides empirical evidence on the role of transnational supply chains in the cross-border transmission of US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) to emerging markets. Using data from 22 emerging economies between 2003 and 2022, we find that US EPU significantly increases the risk for firms connected to US supply chains, compared to those operating solely in local markets. The key mechanisms driving this risk transmission are the capital chain (measured by trade credit) and the product chain (reflected in inventory turnover). Cross-sectional analyses show that firms in politically sensitive industries, with constrained financing, and those with higher participation in transnational supply chains experience a more pronounced impact from US EPU. We also observe adverse effects on other aspects of firm performance, including operating income and return on assets. Together these findings highlight the need for emerging markets to actively manage spillover risks arising from US EPU.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102136"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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