{"title":"Spillover effects of global fund flows","authors":"Yang Zhang , Huanhuan Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We apply a factor model to estimate the spillover effects of global fund flows across international equity and bond markets. We document robust evidence of global and regional spillovers of equity and bond flows in the transmission of external shocks, especially to emerging markets (EMs) during episodes of financial crises and capital stops. Macroprudential policies are effective in alleviating global and regional spillovers to EMs. However, we find no similar evidence for capital controls. Foreign and passive investors mitigate global and regional spillovers, but not sustainable investors whose scale may be too small to have any major impact. We observe bilateral spillovers between equity and bond markets within the same economy; however, their magnitudes are not comparable to those of global or regional spillovers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102209"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145046128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effects of structural reforms on gross capital inflows in OECD countries","authors":"Christos Mavrogiannis , Athanasios Tagkalakis","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102221","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102221","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Utilizing a narrative database on structural reforms in 25 OECD countries from 1985 to 2020, we investigate the effects of labor and product market reforms on gross capital inflows. By applying the local projection method and addressing reform endogeneity with the Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted estimator, we find that structural reforms have a positive medium-term effect on both direct and portfolio investment. In particular, reforms boost investment, especially in environments of high quality financial institutions and amid low public debt.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102221"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145009997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Revisiting central bank credibility: Results from a new survey","authors":"Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak , Tymoteusz Mętrak","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102222","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102222","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Literature on economists’ perceptions of central bank credibility is limited, with Alan Blinder’s work remaining the seminal piece. In this study, we examine how views on various aspects of central bank credibility have evolved over the past two decades, since Blinder’s first survey on this topic. We present the results of the survey conducted in March and April 2024 among 319 experts in the fields of central banking and monetary economics. The questionnaire includes items from the original survey, as well as several new ones, particularly those related to the impact of unconventional monetary policy on credibility, credibility measurement, and central bank objectives. The results indicate that economists still perceive central bank credibility as considerably important for different aspects of central bank activities. In the study, respondents who were central bank practitioners considered credibility more important for monetary policymaking than did academics. Independence, a history of honesty, and transparency were identified as the most important attributes of central bank credibility, while unconventional monetary policies and large fiscal expansions were not considered threats to credibility. These results offer important implications for central banks aiming to formulate relevant policy guidelines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102222"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144988412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comparing conventional and unconventional monetary policy effects in the euro area and the United States","authors":"Fernando Ballabriga , Karen Davtyan","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a consistent framework to compare the macroeconomic effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area (EA) and the United States (US). We find that monetary policy has a stronger effect on prices for the conventional policy period. We interpret this result by the lower level of the natural rate of interest during the unconventional policy period. At the same time, the effects of monetary policy on the unemployment rate and financial variables are more comparable between the conventional and the unconventional policy periods. We also find that the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in terms of its target impact is lower in the EA than in the US, a result we attribute to differences in central bank institutional design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102203"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Accounting vs technical information: what matters more for stock return predictability?","authors":"Nusret Cakici , Adam Zaremba","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102207","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102207","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We employ machine learning models to determine what matters more for stock return predictability: technical data or accounting information. Technical data holds an advantage—it consistently yields more accurate forecasts and higher portfolio returns. This superiority is not limited to the U.S. market but extends to major developed markets worldwide, at times showing even stronger effects. Furthermore, it remains remarkably robust across firm sizes and time periods. However, its edge is most pronounced at short horizons and comes at the cost of higher turnover. Accounting signals, while weaker overall, perform better over longer horizons and support lower-cost implementation. Finally, technical strategies excel in volatile, hard-to-value contexts, whereas accounting-based models fare better when valuation uncertainty is low.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102207"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Directors with foreign experience and corporate cash holdings","authors":"Xinyu Yu , Ping Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of directors with foreign experience (FE directors) on corporate cash holdings. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms, we find that directors with the experience of working or studying abroad have a positive and significant impact on corporate cash decisions, supporting the precautionary motive. The result is valid across a set of robustness tests and several endogeneity checks. Moreover, we find that the association between FE directors and cash holdings is more pronounced in firms with greater financial constraints and investment opportunities. The mediation analysis further identifies two potential channels through which FE directors increase cash holdings, that is, facilitating foreign operations and promoting risky innovation. We finally perform a series of additional analyses to further validate our findings. Overall, our study reveals that it is the resource-providing role that such directors play to shape cash policy, which sheds new light on the value of international human capital for firms in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102208"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144896145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Heiko Jacobs , Alexander Lauber , Sebastian Müller
{"title":"Bearish bets and the press: On the relation between short interest and media tone","authors":"Heiko Jacobs , Alexander Lauber , Sebastian Müller","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the extent to which proxies for short interest at the firm level influence the tone of media reporting for the cross-section of firms. The examination of the German stock market shows that there is a significantly negative relation. Nevertheless, this relation becomes often, though not always, insignificant after thoroughly controlling for relevant company characteristics. Past performance as well as measures of differences of opinion and information uncertainty prove to be particularly important for tonality. These findings are similar for domestic and foreign reporting. With the exception of salience shocks, these results are also obtained for both public and non-public short interest. Additional evidence results from article characteristics and the aggregated time series, among others. On a broader level, the results contribute to the discussion about drivers of media reporting in financial markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102205"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144890194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do ESG investments improve portfolio diversification and risk management during times of uncertainty","authors":"Hachmi Ben Ameur , Zied Ftiti , Wael Louhichi","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to assess whether the statistical properties of ESG assets contribute to portfolio resilience, mitigate market volatility, and enhance diversification. Specifically, we focus on variations in the tails of the return distribution, highlighting potential asymmetries in risk exposure. We use weekly ESG and conventional indices<!--> <!-->across various regions from January 2017 to May 2023. Empirically, we augment the<!--> <!-->mean-conditional value at risk (CVaR) optimisation technique, by introducing geopolitical risk as an exogenous factor. First,<!--> <!-->ESG indices enhance portfolio diversification while reducing exposure to extreme market movements and geopolitical uncertainty.<!--> <!-->Second, incorporating ESG assets is advantageous for both sustainable investment and effective financial risk management, presenting a viable option for investors pursuing both financial and sustainability objectives. Moreover, our results remain<!--> <!-->robust under incremental CVaR approach<!--> <!-->and align with the<!--> <!-->time-varying sensitivity of ESG and conventional indices to geopolitical risk, as shown by<!--> <!-->beta dynamics analysis. Our findings offer several insights for investors diversifying their portfolio.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102199"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Khusrav Gaibulloev , Ali Mirzaei , Tomoe Moore , Mohsen Saad
{"title":"The effect of fintech financing on firm performance: Evidence from emerging economies","authors":"Khusrav Gaibulloev , Ali Mirzaei , Tomoe Moore , Mohsen Saad","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper rigorously examines the relationship between fintech financing and the financial and real performance of financially constrained firms in emerging countries. Using data from 45,770 firms across 20 countries for 2012–2020, we find that the performance of external-finance dependent firms is disproportionately higher when they operate in countries that receive more fintech funds. A host of robustness tests confirm our main finding. We further find that: (i) P2P lending and crowdfunding have greater implications on firm performance than balance sheet lending (ii) the relationship is particularly strong in young firms, and financially developed emerging countries with deeper disclosure of credit information, and (iii) specifically, in countries with greater banking penetration, there is evidence of a substitution effect between bank lending and fintech. Additionally, fintech finance increases capital investment, lowers borrowing costs, and boosts total factor productivity (TFP) to improve firm performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102201"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bank lending and interest-on-excess-reserves: Effects of Central Banks on the global credit supply","authors":"Irem Erten","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102185","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102185","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do banks behave when the opportunity cost of keeping overnight liquidity is less? In this paper, I study the adoption of unconventional monetary policy with interest-on-excess-reserves (IOER) in the pre-2008-crisis period in Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Exploiting this cross-border shock to the monetary design, I show that global banks move liquidity to their home countries and reduce their cross-border credit supply when their home Central Bank introduces a deposit facility that remunerates overnight excess reserves. The credit supply reduction is focused on the smaller, less profitable, and more illiquid branches of the affected banks. Thus, a reduction in the opportunity cost of overnight liquidity has a contractionary impact on the credit supply and results in global macroeconomic spillovers. The results suggest that banks cut lending when the Central Bank is a risk-free borrower and have broad implications for the design of monetary policy, payment systems, and liquidity regulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102185"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}