Gilles Brice M’bakob, Jules Mandeng ma Ntamack, Georges Kriyoss Mfouapon
{"title":"Anticipated psychological spreads: Cryptocurrencies’ hidden short-term monitors and implications for price forecasting","authors":"Gilles Brice M’bakob, Jules Mandeng ma Ntamack, Georges Kriyoss Mfouapon","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102224","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102224","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Behavioral finance applications to cryptocurrency markets often neglect investor psychology surrounding support and resistance levels. This study introduces the anticipated psychological spread model (APSM), which formalizes chartist investors’ reactions to psychological price thresholds through loss aversion. Two behavioral indicators are defined: buyers’ anticipated psychological spread (BAPS), representing the perceived profit margin near resistance levels, and sellers’ anticipated psychological spread (SAPS), representing the anticipated profit margin near support levels. To examine the short-term price impact of these indicators, the study applies panel quantile regression to 32 cryptocurrencies from January 1, 2020, to January 31, 2024. An autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX)-based generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) framework is further employed to test robustness and evaluate the forecasting accuracy of the APSM. The results show that BAPS exerts a negative influence on prices, particularly during bear markets, while SAPS has a positive effect, especially in bull markets. Behavioral asymmetry analysis reveals buyer dominance over sellers throughout the study period. The APSM substantially improves short-term forecasting accuracy compared with classical ARIMAX–GARCH models. These findings indicate that BAPS and SAPS are valuable components for algorithmic trading strategies based on autoregressive models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102224"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145099405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Macroprudential policy and corporate loans: evidence from the syndicated loan market","authors":"Christophe J. Godlewski , Małgorzata Olszak","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102223","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102223","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine how macroprudential policy influences the structure of syndicated corporate loan contracts. Using a dataset of 4,853 European syndicated loans matched with detailed macroprudential policy indicators across nineteen EU countries, we study the impact of regulatory stance on loan amount, maturity, collateral and covenant use. Stricter macroprudential policy is associated with larger loans and a higher probability of collateralization, while macroprudential loosening reduces loan size. These adjustments occur along the intensive margin rather than through outright credit rationing and are concentrated among medium-sized loans and long-maturity facilities. We also show that borrower and lender characteristics mediate the response: larger, more leveraged firms and well-capitalized arranging banks are the primary drivers of the increase in loan size and collateral use. Our findings reveal a novel micro-level transmission channel of macroprudential policy and indicate that regulatory tightening reallocates credit toward safer contracts rather than suppressing overall lending.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102223"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145099404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Directors with foreign experience and corporate cash holdings","authors":"Xinyu Yu , Ping Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of directors with foreign experience (FE directors) on corporate cash holdings. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms, we find that directors with the experience of working or studying abroad have a positive and significant impact on corporate cash decisions, supporting the precautionary motive. The result is valid across a set of robustness tests and several endogeneity checks. Moreover, we find that the association between FE directors and cash holdings is more pronounced in firms with greater financial constraints and investment opportunities. The mediation analysis further identifies two potential channels through which FE directors increase cash holdings, that is, facilitating foreign operations and promoting risky innovation. We finally perform a series of additional analyses to further validate our findings. Overall, our study reveals that it is the resource-providing role that such directors play to shape cash policy, which sheds new light on the value of international human capital for firms in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102208"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144896145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pricing of green bonds: Greenium dynamics and the role of retail investors","authors":"Allegra Pietsch , Dilyara Salakhova","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102211","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102211","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The green bond market has experienced rapid growth in recent years, driven by increasing global awareness of climate change. However, the existence, magnitude and driving forces behind the “greenium” in the secondary market – a price premium associated with green bonds – remain subject to debate. This study investigates the evolution of the greenium in the euro area from 2016 to 2023, encompassing a period of significant macroeconomic shifts, including the COVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis, and the subsequent period of heightened inflation and monetary tightening. Our analysis applies a k-prototypes matching algorithm to construct a closely matched panel of European green and conventional bonds and documents a novel finding that retail investors’ demand for green bonds partly drives the greenium. Sensitivity of retail investors’ financial conditions to the macroeconomic situation and particularly tighter monetary policy may explain investors’ appetite for green bonds and thus the greenium time dynamics. Finally, we confirm investors’ preferences for green bonds with higher credibility of both bonds and bond issuers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102211"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145099406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comparing conventional and unconventional monetary policy effects in the euro area and the United States","authors":"Fernando Ballabriga , Karen Davtyan","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a consistent framework to compare the macroeconomic effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area (EA) and the United States (US). We find that monetary policy has a stronger effect on prices for the conventional policy period. We interpret this result by the lower level of the natural rate of interest during the unconventional policy period. At the same time, the effects of monetary policy on the unemployment rate and financial variables are more comparable between the conventional and the unconventional policy periods. We also find that the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in terms of its target impact is lower in the EA than in the US, a result we attribute to differences in central bank institutional design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 102203"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Executives’ early-life experience and corporate debt contracting: Evidence from CEO military experience","authors":"Harvey Nguyen , Mia Hang Pham , Van Hoang Vu","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102200","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102200","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show that the leadership style of veteran CEOs has important implications for their companies’ costs of bank loans. We find that banks charge, on average, 10.8 basis points lower for firms headed by veteran CEOs, compared to otherwise similar firms. Firms with veteran CEOs are also subject to lower collateral requirements and covenant restrictions. The effect of veteran CEOs on loan costs comes from an improvement in the firm’s information environment and a reduction in firm risk. Overall, our study highlights the increasing relevance of leadership background in lending decisions, suggesting that personal characteristics may influence access to capital in global credit markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102200"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Khusrav Gaibulloev , Ali Mirzaei , Tomoe Moore , Mohsen Saad
{"title":"The effect of fintech financing on firm performance: Evidence from emerging economies","authors":"Khusrav Gaibulloev , Ali Mirzaei , Tomoe Moore , Mohsen Saad","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper rigorously examines the relationship between fintech financing and the financial and real performance of financially constrained firms in emerging countries. Using data from 45,770 firms across 20 countries for 2012–2020, we find that the performance of external-finance dependent firms is disproportionately higher when they operate in countries that receive more fintech funds. A host of robustness tests confirm our main finding. We further find that: (i) P2P lending and crowdfunding have greater implications on firm performance than balance sheet lending (ii) the relationship is particularly strong in young firms, and financially developed emerging countries with deeper disclosure of credit information, and (iii) specifically, in countries with greater banking penetration, there is evidence of a substitution effect between bank lending and fintech. Additionally, fintech finance increases capital investment, lowers borrowing costs, and boosts total factor productivity (TFP) to improve firm performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102201"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Md Jaber Al Islam , Fernando Moreira , Mustapha Douch
{"title":"Does Banks’ environmental engagement impact funding costs?","authors":"Md Jaber Al Islam , Fernando Moreira , Mustapha Douch","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102184","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102184","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite growing research on corporate environmental performance, the effect of banks’ environmental engagement on funding costs remains unclear. While some evidence suggests that environmentally committed banks secure lower funding costs, other studies report no significant effect, leaving the evidence inconclusive. This study addresses this inconsistency by analysing distinct funding cost measures in a global sample and demonstrating that banks with strong environmental engagement consistently benefit from reduced funding costs across multiple dimensions. The advantage is more pronounced among banks in advanced, less concentrated economies with stronger currencies and lower deposit levels. The Paris Agreement has raised awareness among depositors and investors about their role in mitigating climate change. Although such support is generally driven by sound risk management, capital adequacy, and asset size, periods of rising real interest rates and economic crises shift priorities toward higher financial returns. Our results remain robust across alternative samples, model specifications, estimation methods, funding cost measures, and endogeneity correction techniques.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102184"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stock market liberalization and exports of small and medium-sized enterprises","authors":"Liting Fang , Lerong He , Liying Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102182","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102182","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper investigates the impact of stock market liberalization on the exports of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Using the launch of China’s Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program as a quasi-experiment, we apply a difference-in-differences design to examine how the relaxation of foreign investment in listed Chinese SMEs stimulates these firms’ exports. We find that SMEs qualified for the Stock Connect program are associated with a larger increase in export propensity and export intensity in the post-liberalization period than the control group of SMEs unqualified for the program. We also confirm that stock market liberalization increases foreign institutional investor investment and reduces SMEs’ financing constraints, thus encouraging risk sharing, providing more information and resources to SMEs, and increasing their willingness and ability to export. In addition, we show that the influence of stock market liberalization on SMEs’ exports is contingent on industry, firm, and executive characteristics that shape firms’ resource needs and their perceptions of risk and uncertainty associated with exporting. Finally, we provide modest evidence that stock market liberalization encourages outward foreign direct investment. Overall, our paper reveals the facilitating role of stock market liberalization in boosting SMEs’ exports, the underlying mechanisms explaining this relationship, and the contingency factors affecting the strength of this relationship.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102182"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144270809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Predictable liquidity properties in a Segmented, inelastic stock market","authors":"Haim Kedar-Levy , Joon-Seok Kim , Sean Sehyun Yoo","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102181","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102181","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the predictive capability of two investment strategies on idiosyncratic volatility, liquidity risk and liquidity commonality, by investor type. Investors are characterized as positive-feedback or contrarian once their trades are significantly associated with daily stock returns on a given month. We find that this classification has predictive power: positive-feedback traders (mainly foreign investors) tend to increase, while contrarian traders (mainly local individuals) tend to reduce, the following month’s volatility and liquidity. Different investor clienteles segment the market by stock characteristics, questioning linear cross-sectional pricing. Controlling for supply inelasticity we find that share issuance/buyback datapoints tilt some of the statistics and blur the findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102181"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144242365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}