Huaigang Long , Cuixia Tao , Zhongwei Yao , Yanjian Zhu
{"title":"Visible hands versus invisible hands: Default risk and stock price crashes in China","authors":"Huaigang Long , Cuixia Tao , Zhongwei Yao , Yanjian Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102715","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102715","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper revisits the default-crash risk relation in the context of China. We find that firms with higher default risk have lower stock price crash risk at both monthly and yearly frequencies. To identify the causal effect, we use the first-ever default event in China’s onshore bond market in 2014 as an exogenous shock to the strength of implicit guarantees. The negative relation arises from the active involvement of the government before 2014 and creditors after 2014 in corporate governance. Consistent with the external scrutiny mechanism, the impact of default risk on stock price crashes is stronger in situations where creditors are more likely to engage in active monitoring (i.e., firms with higher liquidation costs, lower liquidation value, higher levels of information asymmetry, and non-state-owned firms), with these effects being primarily observed in the post-2014 period. Overall, our study highlights the role of the “invisible hand” in the absence of the “visible hand”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102715"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact of financing method on J-REIT unit price around seasoned equity offerings: Dilution and borrowing ratio effects on abnormal returns","authors":"Akira Ota , Hiroshi Takahashi","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102712","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102712","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study attempts to identify the determinants of changes in real estate investment trust (REIT) unit prices at the time of seasoned equity offering (SEO) in the Japanese financial market. As Japanese REIT (J-REIT) announces SEOs, dividends, and borrowings at the same time, this analysis can consider each factor simultaneously. This study uses the event study method to conduct an ordinary least squares multivariate regression analysis (regression analysis) of the average cumulative abnormal return for 11 days during SEOs in J-REIT. We add the change in a borrowing ratio before and after an SEO and the dilution ratio of investment units from the perspective of the financing method as new candidate factors not used in previous studies. The sample period is from 2013 to 2017, and the number of the analyzed SEOs is 150. This study simultaneously analyzes the impact of the changes in dividends, the changes in borrowing ratios, and the dilution ratios on J-REIT unit prices at the time of SEOs and clarifies each impact. This study showed that investors were aware of the importance of the dilution impact from the perspective of net asset value as well as the dividend as profitability. Unlike previous studies, we also showed that the increase in the borrowing ratio negatively affected the unit price.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102712"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can internet finance promote employment absorption by township enterprises in China?","authors":"Xiaolei Zhang , Cai Zhou , Ziyun Li , Wenping Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Township and village enterprises (TVEs) serve as the primary channel for employment, contributing to over 80 % of rural jobs in China. Internet finance, leveraging technological means, provides more convenient and flexible financing channels in expanding employment opportunities. Based on representative sampling survey data of Chinese township enterprises in 2016, this paper explores the impact of Internet finance adoption at the village level on labor employment within TVEs. We find that villages utilizing Internet finance exhibit an increase in the employment-absorbing capacity of TVEs. After addressing potential endogeneity issues through methods such as instrumental variables, the results remain robust. The alleviation of financing constraints and the promotion of business model innovation are key channels through which Internet finance drives employment absorption by TVEs. Further analysis reveals that the employment-driving effect of Internet finance is primarily concentrated among individuals with at least a high school education, fellow villagers or townsfolk, and is more prominent for contract workers rather than temporary workers. In addition, the promotional effect of Internet finance on employment in TVEs is more pronounced in villages with fewer financial service institutions and in midwest regions in China, highlighting the inclusiveness nature of Internet finance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102718"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143549850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daoping Wang, Liying Xin, Xinyan Shen, Yedong Wang
{"title":"Media sentiment fluctuations on exchange rate, managerial risk appetite and FX derivatives usage","authors":"Daoping Wang, Liying Xin, Xinyan Shen, Yedong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102717","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102717","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the RMB exchange rate reform deepens, Chinese firms' foreign exchange (FX) risk management has garnered increasing attention. Based on a big data from 3.83 million pieces of news published by 33 well-known comprehensive and financial newspapers in China, this paper constructs a sentiment lexicon using the N-gram model to measure the exchange rate's media sentiment through textual analysis. Utilizing 2007–2023 data from listed companies in China, we empirically examine the relationship among media sentiment fluctuations on exchange rate, managerial risk appetite and FX derivatives usage decisions. The findings indicate that media sentiment fluctuations on exchange rate can increase the probability of using FX derivatives and this process is influenced by managerial risk appetite. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of managerial risk appetite on the media sentiment motivations for using FX derivatives is more pronounced in firms with low equity balance, low institutional investor ownership, management lacking financial or international backgrounds, and low exposure to exchange rate risk. The relevant conclusions provide policy insights for firms to better respond to media coverage and external information, as well as to strengthen corporate governance and FX risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102717"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143463582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ahmed Bouteska , Murad Harasheh , Nezha Hamoutan , May H. Hammad
{"title":"Can board refreshment mitigate managerial power: New evidence from the MENA region","authors":"Ahmed Bouteska , Murad Harasheh , Nezha Hamoutan , May H. Hammad","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102710","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102710","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of director refreshment on managerial power in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, a phenomenon often linked to insufficient oversight and increased agency conflicts. We develop a weighted board refreshment index based on seven director attributes to evaluate its effect on three measures of CEO power: managerial entrenchment, duality, and tenure. Our analysis covers 494 publicly traded companies in seven MENA countries from 2007 to 2022, totaling 3912 firm-year observations. The results show that board refreshment significantly reduces all three aspects of managerial power. Additionally, we highlight the crucial role of each refreshment attribute in diminishing managerial control. Overall, this research not only applies the board refreshment index introduced by Dah et al. (2024) in a novel context but also contributes to the literature by demonstrating the effectiveness of board refreshment in enhancing monitoring and board performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102710"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143479844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiaojiao Sun , Chen Zhang , Rongrong Zhang , Yuanpu Ji , Jiajun Ding
{"title":"Spillover dynamics and determinants between FinTech institutions and commercial banks based on the complex network and random forest fusion","authors":"Jiaojiao Sun , Chen Zhang , Rongrong Zhang , Yuanpu Ji , Jiajun Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102713","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>FinTech is transforming the financial system by enhancing efficiency for commercial banks while introducing new risks. This paper examines the direct and indirect risk spillovers between FinTechs and commercial banks, focusing on the determinants of these spillovers from a micro perspective. We create a high-dimensional risk spillover network to analyze the characteristics of spillovers and the roles of different institutions. Considering institutional operational characteristics and investor attention, we identify eight key indicators influencing risk spillovers. We construct a multivariate correlation network through the random forest fusion method, assessing the impact of various factors during the full sample period and crises. Our findings indicate: (1) Risk spillovers exhibit localized centrality, with commercial banks serving as primary receivers and contributors to systemic risk, while FinTechs amplify the risk. (2) Over the full sample period, institution size and debt risk are critical determinants of spillovers. Investor attention is vital for commercial banks' risk absorption, whereas future development capacity significantly affects FinTechs' risk dynamics. (3) During COVID-19, the significance of debt risk diminishes, with operational performance taking precedence. During the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, long-term solvency emerges as the key determinant. Notably, during both crises, the influence of investor attention on spillovers of banks weakens while it increases for FinTechs. This study provides evidence to assist regulatory agencies in refining policies for effective financial innovation risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102713"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fei Xie , Yi Zhang , Yangyang Yao , Yang Liu , Xiao Chen
{"title":"The impact of informed trading on the effectiveness of technical indicators: A behavioral finance perspective","authors":"Fei Xie , Yi Zhang , Yangyang Yao , Yang Liu , Xiao Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a novel approach that bridges the efficacy of technical indicators with the realm of informed trading, positing that the strategic manipulation of these indicators is the linchpin linking the two domains. By developing and utilizing the Proportion of Contrarian (PC) Trades indicator, rooted in behavioral finance principles, and its enhanced counterpart, the Proportion of Contrarian Trades-New (PCN) indicator, this study offers innovative measures of informed trading. Employing a multivariate regression model, the study explores the impact of these indicators on the continuity and profitability of moving average technical indicators. The findings significantly advance the understanding of how informed trading, particularly through large contrarian trades, reduces the continuity of technical signals, thereby increasing short-term market volatility. Furthermore, the study provides robust evidence of how informed traders may manipulate technical indicators to generate misleading signals, which has profound implications for the accuracy of technical analysis. By introducing these innovative indicators and proposing a novel lens through which to view the confluence of technical analysis and informed trading, the study brings a new viewpoint to traditional analytical methods and provides valuable insights to both market participants and regulatory bodies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102716"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143601770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Guan Yan , Stefan Trück , Zhidong Liu , Hongwei Gao
{"title":"Sectoral similarity of banks’ business loans and its negative externality in China","authors":"Guan Yan , Stefan Trück , Zhidong Liu , Hongwei Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyse the sectoral similarity of banks’ business loans and seek implications for this indirect interconnectedness as a contagion channel of systemic risk. Based on sectoral structures of commercial banks’ business loans in China from 2009 to 2022, we show increased sectoral similarity after China’s economic stimulus in 2008 and during the COVID-19 lockdown. Employing QAP correlations, we also find loan similarity is associated with the differences in bank locations and several financial indicators. The relationships between business loan similarity and banks’ risk profiles are investigated in panel regressions. We find that loan similarity is negatively related to individual risks and systemic vulnerability. It also leads to higher contribution to systemic risk by delevering pressure and fire-sale spillovers, providing evidence on a negative externality. The dynamics of the negative externality of loan similarity are also examined. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first study to provide a thorough analysis on the sectoral similarity of commercial banks’ business loans in the Chinese context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102705"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"SDR adjustment and FX liquidity","authors":"Yu-Lun Chen , J. Jimmy Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102711","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102711","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The inclusion of Chinese renminbi in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) lowers weightings of the other SDR currencies (EUR, JPY, and GBP) in the basket. Conventional wisdom suggests no material impact on those currencies. However, we find that, after the SDR adjustment, the liquidity of down-weighted currencies declines significantly. The SDR adjustment increases the FX liquidity commonality and enhances the liquidity spillover and risk transmission from EUR, JPY, and GBP to other world currencies. We identify major determinants of FX liquidity and highlight important policy implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102711"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding the role of sentiment beta in China","authors":"Huai-Long Shi , Huayi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102700","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102700","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this work, we focus on the relationship between stocks’ sensitivity to investor sentiment and cross-sectional returns in China. We construct sentiment beta, along with its absolute, positive, and negative variations. Our findings reveal that raw sentiment beta is not priced in cross-sectional returns, whereas the absolute version is. Further analysis demonstrates that the positive sentiment beta better predicts stock returns, in contrast to the insignificant impact of negative sentiment beta. The performance of positive sentiment beta remains significant after controlling for related firm attributes from any specific category; however, it can be jointly explained by all other attributes except for the limit of arbitrage. In light of Baker and Wurgler (2006), we conclude that varying sentimental shocks drive the performance of positive sentiment beta in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102700"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}