Pacific-Basin Finance Journal最新文献

Measuring and forecasting financial system resilience under multiple shocks: A survival analysis approach 多重冲击下金融体系弹性的测量与预测：一种生存分析方法

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102966

Wenbin Hu , Junzi Zhou

引用次数: 0

Can monetary policy mitigate the COVID-19 shocks? Based on the perspective of both the real economy and financial stability 货币政策能否缓解COVID-19的冲击？基于实体经济和金融稳定的视角

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102967

Chenyang Ran , Hui An , Yue Li

引用次数: 0

Can purchase of IPOs by employees alleviate the underperformance of new shares? 员工购买ipo能否缓解新股表现不佳的问题？

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102962

Yanru Li, Yige Li, Jun Lu

引用次数: 0

Population age structure, industry return, and portfolio strategy: Capitalizing on the trend of population aging in China 人口年龄结构、产业回报与投资组合策略：基于中国人口老龄化趋势的分析

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102965

Suoer Xu , Linlin Zhang , Yunbi An

{"title":"Population age structure, industry return, and portfolio strategy: Capitalizing on the trend of population aging in China","authors":"Suoer Xu , Linlin Zhang , Yunbi An","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we develop a framework to establish an explicit relationship between population age structure and industry returns. Our model suggests that shifts in population age structure lead to varying aggregate demand dynamics across industries, which would translate into cash-flow news affecting industry returns. We propose a semi-structural approach to estimate this relationship and incorporate it into portfolio strategies within an improved Black-Litterman framework. Using Chinese data, we find that leading demand changes driven by population shifts have significantly positive effects on industry returns. Our population-based portfolios consistently outperform the benchmark portfolios in backtesting. Furthermore, incorporating population age structure into portfolios generates modest yet significant positive alpha returns, after controlling for Fama-French factors. We also identify both well and poorly performing industries in China under the future trend of population aging. Our findings are practically relevant for institutional investors seeking to capitalize on a nation's demographic transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102965"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Whac-a-mole: China's debt policies and local debt risks 打地鼠：中国债务政策与地方债务风险

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102963

Jingting Zhang, Junping Zeng

引用次数: 0

Reliability of analyst recommendations based on the DS-LightGBM model 基于DS-LightGBM模型的分析师建议的可靠性

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102961

Zhimin Li , Weidong Zhu , Yong Wu , Zihao Wu

{"title":"Reliability of analyst recommendations based on the DS-LightGBM model","authors":"Zhimin Li , Weidong Zhu , Yong Wu , Zihao Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Securities analysts play a crucial role in the stock market, and their stock recommendations have an important impact on investors' investment decisions. The key to fully leveraging the value of analyst recommendations as an information resource lies in determining the reliability of these recommendations. This study proposes a method for predicting the reliability of analyst recommendations based on the Dempster–Shafer evidence theory and the LightGBM model (DS–LightGBM). The DS–LightGBM model is constructed by incorporating the LightGBM algorithm into evidence theory, which consists of three dimensions: analyst characteristics, rating characteristics, and company characteristics. In the process of reliability prediction, the initial step involves assessing the reliability of the evidence, followed by employing the D<img>S synthesis rule to fuse the information, along with the explainability provided by the SHAP method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through experiments using analysts and A–share market data in China. When compared to the prediction outcomes of random forest, AdaBoost, and similar models, it becomes evident that the DS–LightGBM model exhibits superior prediction accuracy. Additionally, this model effectively measures the contribution and relevance of features, thereby improving the model's explainability and dependability. Consequently, it offers investors, brokers, and other information users a more precise foundation for decision–making purposes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102961"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Robot adoption and corporate supply chain efficiency: Evidence from China 机器人采用与企业供应链效率：来自中国的证据

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102958

Chongchong Xu , Anna Min Du , Boqiang Lin

{"title":"Robot adoption and corporate supply chain efficiency: Evidence from China","authors":"Chongchong Xu , Anna Min Du , Boqiang Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid global climate policy shifts, enhancing supply chain efficiency has become a vital channel for renewable energy manufacturers to maximize financial returns and cultivate sustainable competitive advantages. Despite growing literature on manufacturing automation, limited empirical evidence exists on whether robot adoption affects supply chain efficiency in this strategically important sector. Leveraging micro-level data from China's renewable energy manufacturing industry, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to examine the impact and mechanisms of robot adoption on corporate supply chain efficiency. The findings reveal that: (1) robot adoption significantly enhances supply chain efficiency in renewable energy manufacturing enterprises; (2) inventory management optimization, technological advancements, and transaction cost reduction serve as the primary mechanisms; (3) the positive effects of robot adoption on supply chain efficiency are more pronounced in large-scale enterprises, export-oriented enterprises, and those located in regions with higher levels of marketization. These findings underscore the financial potential of automation investment in improving operational efficiency and value chain performance. Finally, this paper concludes with targeted policy recommendations to support supply chain optimization and guide smart manufacturing investment decisions in the renewable energy sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102958"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Consumption measurement and the limits of insurance: Evidence from Australia 消费计量与保险限度：来自澳大利亚的证据

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102956

Jennifer Z. Sun

引用次数: 0

What it costs: Family firms' supply chain efficiency losses 代价：家族企业供应链效率损失

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102959

Xin Huang , Hao Huang , Fushun Zhang , Tianren Li

{"title":"What it costs: Family firms' supply chain efficiency losses","authors":"Xin Huang , Hao Huang , Fushun Zhang , Tianren Li","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study whether family control shapes firms' supply chain efficiency. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2000 to 2023 and a staggered difference-in-differences design that exploits transitions into family control, we find that family-controlled firms operate with lower supply chain efficiency, reflected in inventory turnover cycles that are, on average, 17.77 days longer than comparable non-family firms (baseline DID estimate). Results are robust to multiple identification checks and alternative measures. We trace the effect to two mechanisms. First, family firms rely more on stable, relationship-based supplier ties, which dampens flexibility and competitive discipline. Second, family-centric talent practices constrain professional operations capabilities. The efficiency penalty is stronger when family involvement in management is deeper, during intergenerational succession, and when boards are less independent; it is weaker under tighter financing constraints and stronger market competition. Our study links ownership structure to operational outcomes, qualifying the presumed advantages of relational governance and identifying circumstances under which external discipline improves supply chain performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102959"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do multicultural barriers hinder fintech development? A pre-registered report 多元文化障碍是否阻碍了金融科技的发展？预注册报告

IF 5.3 2区经济学

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102953

Haiyang Zhang, Lina Wang, Wenda Song

引用次数: 0