{"title":"Measuring and forecasting financial system resilience under multiple shocks: A survival analysis approach","authors":"Wenbin Hu , Junzi Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses the problem of measuring and forecasting financial system resilience. We propose two key extensions to the prevailing shock-based methodologies. First, we incorporate multiple risk sources using generalized impulse response functions, enabling the assessment of general financial resilience rather than specific measure under a single shock. Second, we apply survival analysis – a novel and highly suitable modeling framework for shock methodologies – to integrating financial resilience measurement, key influencing factors identification, and resilience forecasting within a framework. Empirical analysis utilizing US financial system data demonstrates that the proposed measure achieves a 23.81% improvement in accuracy compared to the existing absorption duration measure. Furthermore, the method is forward-looking and proves effective and convenient for identifying critical influencing factors and forecasting financial resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102966"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can monetary policy mitigate the COVID-19 shocks? Based on the perspective of both the real economy and financial stability","authors":"Chenyang Ran , Hui An , Yue Li","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102967","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data from 10 major economies between January 2020 and December 2021, we examine whether monetary policy mitigates pandemic-related shocks on the real economy and financial stability. The key findings: First, COVID-19 adversely affects economic growth, price stability, and full employment, but not the balance of payments and financial stability; Second, monetary policy only mitigates the COVID-19 negative shock on economic growth; Third, emerging economies experience more extensive shocks than developed economies, with conventional and unconventional monetary policy in both subsamples mitigating a few parts of pandemic's negative impacts; Fourth, COVID-19 affects the real economy and financial stability through demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening channels, while monetary policy works only through the demand contraction channel. These findings offer insights for central banks to use monetary policy tools in mitigating negative shocks from future public health emergencies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102967"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can purchase of IPOs by employees alleviate the underperformance of new shares?","authors":"Yanru Li, Yige Li, Jun Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2019, China's registration-based reform of the STAR Market introduced a new form of employee stock ownership plan called Employee Strategic Placement (ESP), which allows employees to purchase company shares during the IPO process. We examine whether ESP can alleviate the long-term underperformance commonly observed in newly listed stocks. Our findings reveal that although significant post-IPO underperformance persists under the registration-based system, firms adopting ESP outperform non-ESP firms by approximately 24 percentage points in one-year buy-and-hold abnormal returns based on matched-firm comparisons. This positive effect remains significant, though somewhat attenuated, over a longer horizon. ESP enhances innovation output and strengthens investor relations management, which in turn helps mitigate underperformance. Furthermore, the positive impact of ESP is particularly strong in firms with lower managerial ownership and weaker corporate governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102962"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Population age structure, industry return, and portfolio strategy: Capitalizing on the trend of population aging in China","authors":"Suoer Xu , Linlin Zhang , Yunbi An","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we develop a framework to establish an explicit relationship between population age structure and industry returns. Our model suggests that shifts in population age structure lead to varying aggregate demand dynamics across industries, which would translate into cash-flow news affecting industry returns. We propose a semi-structural approach to estimate this relationship and incorporate it into portfolio strategies within an improved Black-Litterman framework. Using Chinese data, we find that leading demand changes driven by population shifts have significantly positive effects on industry returns. Our population-based portfolios consistently outperform the benchmark portfolios in backtesting. Furthermore, incorporating population age structure into portfolios generates modest yet significant positive alpha returns, after controlling for Fama-French factors. We also identify both well and poorly performing industries in China under the future trend of population aging. Our findings are practically relevant for institutional investors seeking to capitalize on a nation's demographic transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102965"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Whac-a-mole: China's debt policies and local debt risks","authors":"Jingting Zhang, Junping Zeng","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To address the problem of implicit local government debt, China's government has rolled out a series of debt management policies. However, these measures have not fully achieved their intended goals. To investigate the issue, we construct a general equilibrium model and employ a generalized difference-in-differences (DiD) method for in-depth research. The study finds that China's debt policies have imbalanced impacts on major financing vehicles of local financing platforms: bonds and loans. The policies can effectively suppress the issuance of urban investment bonds but lack sufficient constraining power over local banks. Local governments usually have close ties with local banks, and under the financial pressure caused by debt policies, local financing platforms turn to riskier bank loans, thereby increasing the overall risk of local debt. China's debt policies are facing a “whac-a-mole” situation, which makes it difficult to achieve the expected effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102963"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reliability of analyst recommendations based on the DS-LightGBM model","authors":"Zhimin Li , Weidong Zhu , Yong Wu , Zihao Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Securities analysts play a crucial role in the stock market, and their stock recommendations have an important impact on investors' investment decisions. The key to fully leveraging the value of analyst recommendations as an information resource lies in determining the reliability of these recommendations. This study proposes a method for predicting the reliability of analyst recommendations based on the Dempster–Shafer evidence theory and the LightGBM model (DS–LightGBM). The DS–LightGBM model is constructed by incorporating the LightGBM algorithm into evidence theory, which consists of three dimensions: analyst characteristics, rating characteristics, and company characteristics. In the process of reliability prediction, the initial step involves assessing the reliability of the evidence, followed by employing the D<img>S synthesis rule to fuse the information, along with the explainability provided by the SHAP method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through experiments using analysts and A–share market data in China. When compared to the prediction outcomes of random forest, AdaBoost, and similar models, it becomes evident that the DS–LightGBM model exhibits superior prediction accuracy. Additionally, this model effectively measures the contribution and relevance of features, thereby improving the model's explainability and dependability. Consequently, it offers investors, brokers, and other information users a more precise foundation for decision–making purposes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102961"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Robot adoption and corporate supply chain efficiency: Evidence from China","authors":"Chongchong Xu , Anna Min Du , Boqiang Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid global climate policy shifts, enhancing supply chain efficiency has become a vital channel for renewable energy manufacturers to maximize financial returns and cultivate sustainable competitive advantages. Despite growing literature on manufacturing automation, limited empirical evidence exists on whether robot adoption affects supply chain efficiency in this strategically important sector. Leveraging micro-level data from China's renewable energy manufacturing industry, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to examine the impact and mechanisms of robot adoption on corporate supply chain efficiency. The findings reveal that: (1) robot adoption significantly enhances supply chain efficiency in renewable energy manufacturing enterprises; (2) inventory management optimization, technological advancements, and transaction cost reduction serve as the primary mechanisms; (3) the positive effects of robot adoption on supply chain efficiency are more pronounced in large-scale enterprises, export-oriented enterprises, and those located in regions with higher levels of marketization. These findings underscore the financial potential of automation investment in improving operational efficiency and value chain performance. Finally, this paper concludes with targeted policy recommendations to support supply chain optimization and guide smart manufacturing investment decisions in the renewable energy sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102958"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Consumption measurement and the limits of insurance: Evidence from Australia","authors":"Jennifer Z. Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study constructs disaggregated consumption measures using household- and individual-level panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey to examine the full consumption insurance hypothesis. The results reject full insurance, showing that individual consumption responds to idiosyncratic income shocks despite partial within-household risk-sharing. To strengthen empirical identification, new proxies for idiosyncratic risk are introduced, including involuntary job loss and financial stress. Overall, the evidence suggests that incomplete insurance and heterogeneous risk exposure undermine representative-agent assumptions, reinforcing the need for asset pricing tests based on micro-level consumption data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102956"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What it costs: Family firms' supply chain efficiency losses","authors":"Xin Huang , Hao Huang , Fushun Zhang , Tianren Li","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study whether family control shapes firms' supply chain efficiency. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2000 to 2023 and a staggered difference-in-differences design that exploits transitions into family control, we find that family-controlled firms operate with lower supply chain efficiency, reflected in inventory turnover cycles that are, on average, 17.77 days longer than comparable non-family firms (baseline DID estimate). Results are robust to multiple identification checks and alternative measures. We trace the effect to two mechanisms. First, family firms rely more on stable, relationship-based supplier ties, which dampens flexibility and competitive discipline. Second, family-centric talent practices constrain professional operations capabilities. The efficiency penalty is stronger when family involvement in management is deeper, during intergenerational succession, and when boards are less independent; it is weaker under tighter financing constraints and stronger market competition. Our study links ownership structure to operational outcomes, qualifying the presumed advantages of relational governance and identifying circumstances under which external discipline improves supply chain performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102959"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do multicultural barriers hinder fintech development? A pre-registered report","authors":"Haiyang Zhang, Lina Wang, Wenda Song","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This pre-registered report aims to explore the impact of cultural diversity on fintech development through the perspective of dialectal diversity. Specifically, we want to investigate three key questions: (1) Does cultural diversity influence fintech development? (2) If it does, what are the underlying mechanisms? (3) Moreover, does the impact of cultural diversity on fintech development vary across regions or households with heterogeneous characteristics? To explore these questions, we plan to utilize regional dialect data and analytical methods such as instrumental variables and fixed effects to examine fintech adoption at the household level. This report contributes to understanding the informal institutional factors underpinning the development of fintech, and provides new theoretical and practical perspectives for building a more comprehensive and inclusive fintech system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102953"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}