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Measuring geopolitical risk in China 衡量中国的地缘政治风险
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103128
Xinyan Shen , Daoping Wang , Chen Wu
{"title":"Measuring geopolitical risk in China","authors":"Xinyan Shen ,&nbsp;Daoping Wang ,&nbsp;Chen Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper extends the research of <span><span>Caldara and Iacoviello (2022)</span></span> and constructs new geopolitical risk indices more suitable for China based on newspapers in mainland China. First, we construct a broad-scope China-Total Geopolitical Risk Index, which measures both Chinese direct geopolitical risks and the indirect risks of geopolitical events in other countries. Then we further decompose the China-Total GPR Index and construct China-Direct GPR Index to measure direct Chinese geopolitical risks and China-Non-Direct Geopolitical Risk Index to measure the risks brought by geopolitical events not directly related to China. Compared to China-Total GPR Index, China-Direct GPR Index can more sensitively capture specific geopolitical risk events in China, such as the Taiwan Strait crisis and the South China Sea issue. And indices we construct are better at capturing geopolitical conflicts that are closely related to China, which is not fully reflected in geopolitical risk indices constructed based on English newspapers. Furthermore, through VAR analysis, we find that an increase in Chinese geopolitical risk has significant short-term negative impacts on China's financial market and GDP. The results highlight the potential threat of geopolitical risks to China's economic development and social stability and provide forward-looking references for policy-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103128"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147601277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Minimum wage policy uncertainty and bond credit spreads: Evidence from China 最低工资政策的不确定性和债券信用息差：来自中国的证据
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103160
Zhennan Gao , Shoulin Pang , Hanyang Wang , Yuanyuan Zhou
{"title":"Minimum wage policy uncertainty and bond credit spreads: Evidence from China","authors":"Zhennan Gao ,&nbsp;Shoulin Pang ,&nbsp;Hanyang Wang ,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103160","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103160","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how uncertainty surrounding the timing of minimum wage (MW) policy adjustments affects corporate bond credit spreads. Using a novel dataset that links city-level MW policies with bond issuance data for publicly listed Chinese firms from 2007 to 2023, we find that greater MW policy uncertainty significantly increases bond credit spreads. The effect is particularly pronounced for state-owned enterprises, labor-intensive firms, and firms employing lower-skilled workers. In contrast, the effect is weaker for bonds with lower credit ratings or longer maturities and during periods of greater economic or political instability, lower levels of economic development, tighter monetary policy, or heightened trade policy uncertainty. Mechanism analysis suggests that MW policy uncertainty increases firms' operational volatility and financing constraints, thereby raising perceived credit risk and widening spreads. By quantifying city-level uncertainty in MW policy timing, this research provides new evidence on how labor policy dynamics influence corporate credit risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103160"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147601276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The unintended consequence of local government debt: Evidence from auditors' risk perception 地方政府债务的意外后果：来自审计机构风险感知的证据
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103183
Shuaidi Chen , Qiang Liu , Hongling Han , Ying Jin
{"title":"The unintended consequence of local government debt: Evidence from auditors' risk perception","authors":"Shuaidi Chen ,&nbsp;Qiang Liu ,&nbsp;Hongling Han ,&nbsp;Ying Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103183","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103183","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines whether the rapid expansion of local government debt (LGD) in China produces unintended consequences by influencing auditors' risk perception. Using a comprehensive dataset of Chinese A-share listed companies, we find a robust positive association between regional local government debt and corporate audit fees, suggesting that auditors perceive heightened risk in high-debt jurisdictions and adjust their pricing accordingly. We identify three channels through which auditors perceive local government debt-related risk: financial constraints, government procurement contracts, and tax avoidance. Moreover, the effect is more pronounced for firms with certain characteristics—specifically, non-state-owned enterprises, high levels of earnings management or leverage manipulation, and those located in regions with weaker business environments, lower fiscal freedom or non-coastal geographic locations. Importantly, we show that the audit fee premium reflects auditors' perceived risk, rather than a substantiated increase in firms' substantive risk. Additionally, we find that higher local government debt is associated with a higher likelihood of auditor changes and higher audit fees after the change. Our findings offer novel insights into the determinants of audit pricing, and contribute to the broader literature on the economic implications of local debt in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103183"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gradualistic succession in Chinese family firms and industrial layout adjustment 中国家族企业的渐进式继承与产业布局调整
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103167
Yuejiao Duan, Lanbiao Liu, Xiaomeng Wang
{"title":"Gradualistic succession in Chinese family firms and industrial layout adjustment","authors":"Yuejiao Duan,&nbsp;Lanbiao Liu,&nbsp;Xiaomeng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103167","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103167","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to explore how intergenerational inheritance affects the industrial layout adjustment of Chinese family businesses during the inheritance process. Drawing on theories such as social emotional wealth and organizational authority, we view intergenerational succession as a gradual redistribution of decision-making power in enterprises, rather than a discrete event. Based on this, we examine whether and how gradual power transfer affects the long-term industrial layout decisions of enterprises. Previous studies have often viewed inheritance as a binary breakpoint, which has limited our ability to capture strategic adjustments during the transition period. This pre-registration study aims to further demonstrate that the emphasis on social reputation and political relationships in family businesses can regulate their industrial layout adjustment patterns during the inheritance process. By shifting the focus from inheritance outcomes to the inheritance process, this study deepens our understanding of how intergenerational leadership handover affects long-term strategic decision-making in family businesses, and provides insights for inheritance-planning, corporate governance, and policy-making in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103167"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disclosure similarity and bond comovement 披露相似性与键合性
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103191
Fengyu Li , Zicheng Zhao , Hang Cheng
{"title":"Disclosure similarity and bond comovement","authors":"Fengyu Li ,&nbsp;Zicheng Zhao ,&nbsp;Hang Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine whether similarity in corporate disclosures predicts bond credit spread comovement. Using textual analysis of Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&amp;A) sections from Chinese listed firms, we document a robust positive association between disclosure similarity and subsequent bond comovement. This effect holds across multiple information dimensions, including forward-looking, risk-related, and macroeconomic disclosures. We further show that disclosure similarity predicts future convergence in firms' distance-to-default (DD), consistent with the view that similar disclosures align investors' assessments of default risk. Cross-sectional analyses provide additional support for our identification by showing that the effect is stronger when investors are more likely to rely on corporate disclosures, including for lower-rated bonds, bonds underwritten by less reputable underwriters, longer-maturity bonds, and firms with greater analyst dispersion, negative media coverage, or negative investor sentiment. The effect is also stronger during periods of elevated economic policy uncertainty. Overall, our findings highlight the role of qualitative disclosures in shaping bond comovement and provide new evidence on the information-based determinants of bond comovement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103191"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147850152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investor behaviors and heuristics based on lunar superstition beliefs: A pre-registered report 基于农历迷信信念的投资者行为和启发：一份预注册报告
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103164
Li Zhuohan , Qiao Minjian
{"title":"Investor behaviors and heuristics based on lunar superstition beliefs: A pre-registered report","authors":"Li Zhuohan ,&nbsp;Qiao Minjian","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103164","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103164","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This pre-registered report examines how Lunar Superstitions from the traditional Almanac affect investors' behavior in stock markets across the major Asian economies, including Mainland China, Hong Kong SAR, and Taiwan. We are going to investigate four questions in this study: 1) Do the Lunar superstition beliefs affect stock market returns and trading volumes in the stock markets where Chinese investors participate? 2) What are the mechanisms underlying these effects? 3) If so, under what circumstances will these effects be more pronounced? 4) What are the economic consequences of these effects? This research improves the understanding of how heuristics from superstition beliefs shape investors' decision-making when trading risky assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103164"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147601272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do the pros of succession outweigh the cons? Evidence from the fraud of Chinese family-listed firms 继任的利大于弊吗？来自中国家族上市公司欺诈的证据
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103168
Baihe Chen , Chao Lu , Ziyi Wu , Yajie Zheng , Ziying Zhao
{"title":"Do the pros of succession outweigh the cons? Evidence from the fraud of Chinese family-listed firms","authors":"Baihe Chen ,&nbsp;Chao Lu ,&nbsp;Ziyi Wu ,&nbsp;Yajie Zheng ,&nbsp;Ziying Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how leadership succession affects corporate fraud in family-listed firms. Using a panel of Chinese A-share family firms from 2007 to 2023, we find that succession significantly reduces both the probability and frequency of corporate violations. This result remains robust to alternative specifications designed to address potential endogeneity concerns. Drawing on fraud triangle theory, we demonstrate that succession curbs fraud through weakening managerial motivation, limiting opportunities via stronger internal controls and external supervision, and narrowing the scope for self-justification. The effects are more pronounced among older successors, firms located outside western China, and regions with higher social trust. We further show that fraud reduction substantially lowers operational risk and enhances firms' long-term financing capacity. Our findings extend fraud triangle theory to succession dynamics and highlight family succession as an endogenous governance mechanism that promotes organizational self-correction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103168"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147703014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic multi-level graph enhanced contrastive learning for financial fraud detection 动态多级图增强对比学习在财务欺诈检测中的应用
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103172
Wayne Lin , Ya Shi , Zhuang Liu
{"title":"Dynamic multi-level graph enhanced contrastive learning for financial fraud detection","authors":"Wayne Lin ,&nbsp;Ya Shi ,&nbsp;Zhuang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The escalating economic repercussions of financial fraud demand advanced detection methods. However, existing approaches are often limited by poor dynamic adaptability, challenges in few-shot learning scenarios, and heavy reliance on feature engineering. In this work, we present DyME-CLFD, a few-shot Dynamic Multi-level Graph Enhanced Contrastive Learning framework for Fraud Detection. DyME-CLFD efficiently captures intricate dependencies through dynamic aggregations, enhances discernment with multi-view contrastive learning, and incorporates spectral filtering for few-shot label integration. Extensive experiments demonstrate DyME-CLFD’s superiority in fraud detection across real-world datasets. Our findings present a significant contribution to the field and offer a robust framework for enhancing financial security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103172"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147703127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bank digital transformation and risk-taking: Evidence from China 银行数字化转型与风险承担：来自中国的证据
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103081
Ke Song , Xingzi Ren , Lanyu Li , Zhen Xu
{"title":"Bank digital transformation and risk-taking: Evidence from China","authors":"Ke Song ,&nbsp;Xingzi Ren ,&nbsp;Lanyu Li ,&nbsp;Zhen Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effect of banks' internal digital transformation on risk-taking using panel data from Chinese commercial banks over the period 2014–2020. We construct a multidimensional, bank-level Digital Transformation Index that measures digitalization across five aspects, including strategic orientation, organizational structure, client services, products and business models, and technology. The results show that digital transformation is significantly associated with lower bank risk-taking. This relationship remains robust across alternative risk proxies, different index constructions, and a range of robustness and endogeneity checks. Further evidence suggests that digital transformation mitigates bank risk-taking by reducing management costs and improving operational efficiency. The effect is also moderated by institutional characteristics and external conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103081"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Perception of economic policy uncertainty and peer effects in capital structure 经济政策不确定性与资本结构对等效应的感知
IF 5.3 2区 经济学
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103170
Li Li , Changchun Pan , Mingrui Zhang
{"title":"Perception of economic policy uncertainty and peer effects in capital structure","authors":"Li Li ,&nbsp;Changchun Pan ,&nbsp;Mingrui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103170","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103170","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid escalating global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), firms' perceptions of and responses to EPU at the corporate level critically impact market stability and allocative efficiency. In light of this, this study employs panel data from Chinese listed companies over the period 2007–2023 to empirically investigate the influence of perceived economic policy uncertainty (PEPU) on the industry peer effects within corporate capital structure. The findings indicate that elevated PEPU significantly strengthens these peer effects. Mechanism analysis indicates that PEPU enhances peer effects in capital structure by intensifying motives for information acquisition and risk avoidance. Cross-sectional analysis further reveals that the amplifying role of PEPU in peer effects related to capital structure is more evident in firms operating in regions with advanced marketization, industries with greater competition intensity, management teams with weaker financial backgrounds, and firms facing lower financing constraints.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"98 ","pages":"Article 103170"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147703128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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