Journal of Risk and Uncertainty最新文献_第6页

Perceptions of personal and public risk: Dissociable effects on behavior and well-being 个人和公共风险的感知:对行为和福祉的可分离影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-04-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09373-0

Laura K. Globig, Bastien Blain, Tali Sharot

{"title":"Perceptions of personal and public risk: Dissociable effects on behavior and well-being","authors":"Laura K. Globig, Bastien Blain, Tali Sharot","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09373-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09373-0","url":null,"abstract":"When faced with a global threat peoples’ perception of risk guides their response. When danger is to the self as well as to others two risk estimates are generated—to the self and to others. Here, we set out to examine how people’s perceptions of health risk to the self and others are related to their psychological well-being and behavioral response. To that end, we surveyed a large representative sample of Americans facing the COVID-19 pandemic at two times (N1 = 1145, N2 = 683). We found that people perceived their own risk to be relatively low, while estimating the risk to others as relatively high. These risk estimates were differentially associated with psychological well-being and behavior. In particular, perceived personal but not public risk was associated with people’s happiness, while both were predictive of anxiety. In contrast, the tendency to engage in protective behaviors were predicted by peoples’ estimated risk to the population, but not to themselves. This raises the possibility that people were predominantly engaging in protective behaviors for the benefit of others. The findings can inform public policy aimed at protecting people’s psychological well-being and physical health during global threats.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"244 1‐2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2022-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

The limits of reopening policy to alter economic behavior: New evidence from Texas 重新开放政策以改变经济行为的局限性:来自德克萨斯州的新证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09379-8

Dhaval M. Dave, Joseph J. Sabia, Samuel Safford

引用次数: 5

How does risk preference change under the stress of COVID-19? Evidence from Japan 在COVID-19的压力下，风险偏好如何变化?来自日本的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-03-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09374-z

Y. Tsutsui, I. Tsutsui-Kimura

引用次数: 4

Smoking, selection, and medical care expenditures 吸烟、选择和医疗保健支出

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09378-9

Michael E Darden, R. Kaestner

引用次数: 1

Revisiting the diagnosis of intertemporal preference reversals 对跨期偏好逆转诊断的再认识

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09369-w

Zhihua Li, G. Loomes

引用次数: 0

A behavioral decomposition of willingness to pay for health insurance 支付健康保险意愿的行为分解

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09371-2

A. Baillon, Aleli D Kraft, O. O’Donnell, K. van Wilgenburg

引用次数: 4

Intertemporal choice as a tradeoff between cumulative payoff and average delay 跨期选择是累积收益和平均延迟之间的权衡

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-01-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09370-3

Pavlo R. Blavatskyy

{"title":"Intertemporal choice as a tradeoff between cumulative payoff and average delay","authors":"Pavlo R. Blavatskyy","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09370-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-022-09370-3","url":null,"abstract":"Intertemporal choice involves outcomes that are received in different moments of time. This paper presents a new framework for analyzing intertemporal choice as a tradeoff between the cumulative payoff of a stream of intertemporal outcomes and its average delay (similar to the mean–variance approach in modelling risk preferences). Ceteris paribus, a decision maker prefers a stream of intertemporal payoffs with a higher cumulative payoff and a lower average delay. A decision maker with such time preferences always dislikes a partial delay in consumption (splitting one payoff into two, one of which is slightly delayed in time). In contrast, many existing models (e.g. discounted utility, quasi-hyperbolic discounting, generalized hyperbolic discounting or liminal discounting) imply a preference for partial delay. Our proposed model is compatible with the common difference effect (corresponding to a horizontal fanning-out of indifference curves) and the absolute magnitude effect (corresponding to a vertical fanning-in of indifference curves). The proposed model is applied to the standard consumption-savings problem with a constant interest rate. A simple experimental test of the proposed model vs. discounted utility and quasi-hyperbolic discounting is presented.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"246 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

How serious is the measurement-error problem in risk-aversion tasks? 风险规避任务中的测量误差问题有多严重?

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-01-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09366-5

Fabien Perez, Guillaume Hollard, Radu Vranceanu

{"title":"How serious is the measurement-error problem in risk-aversion tasks?","authors":"Fabien Perez, Guillaume Hollard, Radu Vranceanu","doi":"10.1007/s11166-021-09366-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-021-09366-5","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes within-session test/retest data from four different tasks used to elicit risk attitudes. Maximum-likelihood and non-parametric estimations on 16 datasets reveal that, irrespective of the task, measurement error accounts for approximately 50% of the variance of the observed variable capturing risk attitudes. The consequences of this large noise element are evaluated by means of simulations. First, as predicted by theory, the coefficient on the risk measure in univariate OLS regressions is attenuated to approximately half of its true value, irrespective of the sample size. Second, the risk-attitude measure may spuriously appear to be insignificant, especially in small samples. Unlike the measurement error arising from within-individual variability, rounding has little influence on significance and biases. In the last part, we show that instrumental-variable estimation and the ORIV method, developed by Gillen et al. (2019), both of which require test/retest data, can eliminate the attenuation bias, but do not fully solve the insignificance problem in small samples. Increasing the number of observations to N=500 removes most of the insignificance issues.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"247 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19大流行期间的宿命论、信仰和行为

IF 1.3 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09375-y

Jesper Akesson, Sam Ashworth-Hayes, Robert Hahn, Robert Metcalfe, Itzhak Rasooly

引用次数: 0

Risky choice: Probability weighting explains independence axiom violations in monkeys. 风险选择：概率加权解释了猴子违反独立性公理的原因。

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-07-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7

Simone Ferrari-Toniolo, Leo Chi U Seak, Wolfram Schultz

{"title":"Risky choice: Probability weighting explains independence axiom violations in monkeys.","authors":"Simone Ferrari-Toniolo, Leo Chi U Seak, Wolfram Schultz","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7","url":null,"abstract":"Expected Utility Theory (EUT) provides axioms for maximizing utility in risky choice. The Independence Axiom (IA) is its most demanding axiom: preferences between two options should not change when altering both options equally by mixing them with a common gamble. We tested common consequence (CC) and common ratio (CR) violations of the IA over several months in thousands of stochastic choices using a large variety of binary option sets. Three monkeys showed consistently few outright Preference Reversals (8%) but substantial graded Preference Changes (46%) between the initial preferred gamble and the corresponding altered gamble. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) indicated that gamble probabilities predicted most Preference Changes in CC (72%) and CR (88%) tests. The Akaike Information Criterion indicated that probability weighting within Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) explained choices better than models using Expected Value (EV) or EUT. Fitting by utility and probability weighting functions of CPT resulted in nonlinear and non-parallel indifference curves (IC) in the Marschak-Machina triangle and suggested IA non-compliance of models using EV or EUT. Indeed, CPT models predicted Preference Changes better than EV and EUT models. Indifference points in out-of-sample tests were closer to CPT-estimated ICs than EV and EUT ICs. Finally, while the few outright Preference Reversals may reflect the long experience of our monkeys, their more graded Preference Changes corresponded to those reported for humans. In benefitting from the wide testing possibilities in monkeys, our stringent axiomatic tests contribute critical information about risky decision-making and serves as basis for investigating neuronal decision mechanisms.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"65 3","pages":"319-351"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9840594/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10548409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0