Journal of Risk and Uncertainty最新文献_第7页

Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19大流行期间的宿命论、信仰和行为

IF 1.3 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09375-y

Jesper Akesson, Sam Ashworth-Hayes, Robert Hahn, Robert Metcalfe, Itzhak Rasooly

引用次数: 0

Risky choice: Probability weighting explains independence axiom violations in monkeys. 风险选择：概率加权解释了猴子违反独立性公理的原因。

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-07-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7

Simone Ferrari-Toniolo, Leo Chi U Seak, Wolfram Schultz

{"title":"Risky choice: Probability weighting explains independence axiom violations in monkeys.","authors":"Simone Ferrari-Toniolo, Leo Chi U Seak, Wolfram Schultz","doi":"10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7","url":null,"abstract":"Expected Utility Theory (EUT) provides axioms for maximizing utility in risky choice. The Independence Axiom (IA) is its most demanding axiom: preferences between two options should not change when altering both options equally by mixing them with a common gamble. We tested common consequence (CC) and common ratio (CR) violations of the IA over several months in thousands of stochastic choices using a large variety of binary option sets. Three monkeys showed consistently few outright Preference Reversals (8%) but substantial graded Preference Changes (46%) between the initial preferred gamble and the corresponding altered gamble. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) indicated that gamble probabilities predicted most Preference Changes in CC (72%) and CR (88%) tests. The Akaike Information Criterion indicated that probability weighting within Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) explained choices better than models using Expected Value (EV) or EUT. Fitting by utility and probability weighting functions of CPT resulted in nonlinear and non-parallel indifference curves (IC) in the Marschak-Machina triangle and suggested IA non-compliance of models using EV or EUT. Indeed, CPT models predicted Preference Changes better than EV and EUT models. Indifference points in out-of-sample tests were closer to CPT-estimated ICs than EV and EUT ICs. Finally, while the few outright Preference Reversals may reflect the long experience of our monkeys, their more graded Preference Changes corresponded to those reported for humans. In benefitting from the wide testing possibilities in monkeys, our stringent axiomatic tests contribute critical information about risky decision-making and serves as basis for investigating neuronal decision mechanisms.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-022-09388-7.","PeriodicalId":48066,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty","volume":"65 3","pages":"319-351"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9840594/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10548409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Choice uncertainty and the endowment effect. 选择不确定性与禀赋效应。

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-06-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09387-8

Christina McGranaghan, Steven G Otto

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引用次数: 2

Correction to: Insurance decisions under nonperformance risk and ambiguity 修正:不履约风险和模糊性下的保险决策

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-022-09372-1

Timo R Lambregts, Paul van Bruggen, H. Bleichrodt

引用次数: 0

Intransitivity in the small and in the large 小和大的不敏感

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09367-4

S. Bikhchandani, Uzi Segal

引用次数: 0

Gender differences in the stability of risk attitudes 风险态度稳定性的性别差异

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09361-w

A. Bandyopadhyay, Lutfunnahar Begum, P. Grossman

引用次数: 3

Crowded out: Heterogeneity in risk attitudes among poor households in the US 拥挤：美国贫困家庭风险态度的异质性

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09363-8

A. Galliera, E. Rutström

引用次数: 5

The value of statistical life in the context of road safety: new evidence on the contingent valuation/standard gamble chained approach 道路安全背景下统计寿命的价值：偶然估价/标准赌博链方法的新证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-09-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09360-x

F. Sánchez-Martínez, J. Martínez-Pérez, J. Abellan-Perpiñan, J. Pinto-Prades

引用次数: 2

Optimality of winner-take-all contests: the role of attitudes toward risk 赢家通吃竞赛的最优性:对风险态度的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09355-8

Liqun Liu, Nicolas Treich

引用次数: 2

When risky decisions generate externalities 当风险决策产生外部性时

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-021-09357-6

Angela C. M. de Oliveira

引用次数: 2