{"title":"Economic Drivers of China's Declining Fertility: The Role of Digital Inclusive Finance and Household Debt","authors":"Fei Yang, Zhenlin Zhang","doi":"10.1002/jid.3983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3983","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The declining birth rate in China has resulted in a decrease in the labour force, increased ageing of the population and constrained economic growth potential, making the increase in the birth rate a priority. This study explores the connections among digital inclusive finance, household debt and fertility rates using microdata from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) for the years 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2019, along with data on digital financial inclusion in China. The baseline study finds that both digital inclusive finance and household debt are negatively correlated with fertility rates, though there exists a positive association between digital inclusive finance and household debt. Heterogeneity studies show that the impacts of household debt and digital inclusive finance on fertility rates vary by region and household income level. In both the eastern and central-western regions, digital inclusive finance significantly affects family fertility decisions, whereas household debt significantly negatively affects family fertility decisions in central-western areas. High-income families are more positively influenced by digital inclusive finance, whereas low-income families are primarily negatively affected by household debt. Specific types of debt, such as housing and education, have a significant negative impact on fertility rates. Policy research also found that targeted reserve requirement ratio policies for inclusive finance are beneficial for increasing the birth rate. This paper provides empirical evidence for policymakers, helping them design more effective policies to reduce the economic burden on families, enhance family welfare and promote an increase in birth rates.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 3","pages":"675-696"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Attention Versus Handshakes: Pathways of Influence in China's Foreign Aid and Loans","authors":"Lucie Lu, Miles Williams","doi":"10.1002/jid.3980","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3980","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Numerous studies show that China uses its ODA-like overseas development financing to promote soft power and improve its international image. In this study, we seek to understand how. We examine the role of Chinese state-sponsored media and diplomacy as complements to Chinese foreign aid. We propose that the coverage of aid recipients in <i>Xinhua</i> articles targeted at foreign audiences, as well as the number of diplomatic visits from Beijing hosted by a recipient government, increase in proportion to the amount of aid these countries receive from China. In contrast, we propose either a null or reverse relationship in the case of OOF-like flows from China, which tend to be more associated with loans and business-oriented interests. To test these hypotheses, we use AidData's Chinese development finance dataset and its recently released diplomacy dataset, along with meta-data from millions of Xinhua news articles between 2002 and 2017. The analysis provides partial support for our argument, but the results deviate from our expectations in interesting ways. First, while aid (ODA) recipients receive more coverage in <i>Xinhua</i>, they are not disproportionately more likely to host missions from Beijing. Conversely, while loan (OOF) recipients are not more likely to receive coverage in <i>Xinhua</i>, they are more likely to host diplomatic visits. These results suggest that China likes to publicize its role as a donor for image building, but seeks closer ties with its debtors to further bilateral relationships.</p>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 3","pages":"655-674"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jid.3980","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Money Talks: How Remittances Contribute to Wealth Creation in Post-conflict Communities","authors":"Narayani Sritharan, Kritika Jothishankar","doi":"10.1002/jid.3974","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3974","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the impact of remittances on household wealth in post-conflict Sri Lanka, a country that endured a prolonged conflict from 1983 to 2009. Utilizing data from the Secure Livelihood Consortium (SLRC) conducted in 2012/2013 and in 2015, we employ a difference-in-difference (DiD) approach to analyse the wealth trajectories of households that receive remittances compared to those that do not. Our findings indicate that although remittances are often targeted at poorer households, they have a positive impact on wealth accumulation over time. This suggests that remittances can play an important role in the economic recovery of post-conflict communities. The results have three policy implications. First, leveraging remittances as a tool for economic recovery could enhance the effectiveness of development strategies in post-conflict regions. Second, policymakers should consider initiatives that facilitate the formalization of remittance channels to maximize their positive impact on household wealth. Third, financial literacy programmes could help remittance-receiving households make more productive use of these funds, further promoting sustainable development. By providing empirical evidence from a post-conflict setting, this study contributes to the broader discourse on remittances and economic development, offering insights that are both academically relevant and practically valuable for policymakers and development practitioners.</p>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 3","pages":"633-654"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jid.3974","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global Frictions: Foreign Aid, Donor–Recipient Relations and LGBT+ Rights in Tanzania","authors":"Stephen Brown","doi":"10.1002/jid.3978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3978","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In 2018, a Tanzanian government official announced a crackdown on homosexuality. International actors rapidly expressed their disapproval and temporarily suspended some foreign aid, which elicited a negative response from the Tanzanian government and soured donor–recipient relations. The incident was short-lived, however, and expressed mainly at the symbolic level and does not appear to have achieved any change in policies or practices either among the donors or in Tanzania. How should one interpret this sudden eruption of frictions and its lack of impact and what are its implications? I argue that international actors felt pressure to take quick, visible action, regardless of how ineffective those steps could be expected to be. Politicians from Tanzania's ruling party seized this occasion to ramp up anti-LGBT+ and anti-donor rhetoric, attempting to strengthen their standing domestically. Both sides used the opportunity to express their identity as either defenders or opponents of LGBT+ rights. This case shows how donor–recipient frictions can be primarily performative and reflect both sides' desire to please their own constituencies without implementing any lasting changes to aid flows or domestic policy in the recipient country.</p>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 3","pages":"621-632"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jid.3978","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Agnes Andersson, Heather Mackay, Paul Isolo Mukwaya
{"title":"Translocal Livelihoods, Socio-Economic Differentiation and Lower Level Urbanisation in Uganda","authors":"Agnes Andersson, Heather Mackay, Paul Isolo Mukwaya","doi":"10.1002/jid.3970","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3970","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In sub-Saharan Africa, more than a quarter of the urban population lives in small towns, with rapid lower level urbanisation being driven largely by lacking rural opportunities. A growing interest in translocality considers relationships that position livelihoods within multiple spatial contexts. Terms of inclusion in translocal relationships vary, and the socio-economic differentiation emerging out of these relationships is understudied. We use a mixed-methods approach, combining survey data with qualitative data collected in seven small towns in Uganda to shed light on their translocal livelihood dynamics and to elucidate the empirical and theoretical linkages between translocality and socio-economic differentiation.</p>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 2","pages":"607-619"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jid.3970","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating the Evolving Trade Effect of Foreign Aid in the Context of Aid Competition: Evidence From European Countries","authors":"Hongyi Xu, Zesheng Sun, Hao Chen","doi":"10.1002/jid.3976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3976","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper explores the evolving trade effect of foreign aid using data from European countries from 1962 to 2020 in the context of multidonor competition. Our varying-coefficient panel shows a significant country- and time-heterogeneous trade effect of European donors' aid; however, aid competition can produce a mix of trade promotion and inhibitory effects. Estimations of aid's evolving trade effect reveal that donors' aid scale and (export) industrial concentration have a positive effect on promoting the trade–aid relationship with aid scale showing a reverse U-shaped effect; the share of Aid for Trade (AfT) exerts a negative effect, and the donor's trade deficit demonstrates a positive impact on aid–trade effect.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 2","pages":"584-606"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transforming Trade and Environment: Digital Trade's Impact on Carbon Emissions in the European Union","authors":"Meng Cai","doi":"10.1002/jid.3977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3977","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The rapid expansion of digital trade is reshaping global economies, offering promising opportunities to mitigate carbon emissions. This study investigates the impact of digital trade on carbon emissions across 27 European Union countries from 2009 to 2023, presenting new insights into the environmental benefits of digital trade. The empirical findings reveal that digital trade significantly reduces emissions by optimizing industrial structure, promoting technological innovation and enhancing human capital. The heterogeneity analysis shows that this reduction effect is more pronounced in Northern, Western and Central Europe, where digital infrastructure and regulatory support may be more robust, and it is also stronger in highly innovative countries compared to less innovative ones. These results underscore the potential of digital trade as a driver of sustainable economic growth, providing valuable insights for policymakers aiming to leverage digitalization to enhance environmental sustainability, align with climate targets and foster a more efficient, low-carbon economy.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 2","pages":"570-583"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact of Sanctions Policy Shifts: A Case Study of the United States and Cuba, 1994–2020","authors":"Pavel Vidal","doi":"10.1002/jid.3973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3973","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article offers new evidence to aid the discussion on the economic consequences of easing or tightening sanctions, with Cuba serving as a case study. Even with the persistent sanction regime, a level of trade, remittances and visitors has been sustained between the United States and Cuba, notably since the 1990s, fluctuating with the political climate. This study consolidates data from various sources to gauge the magnitude of this exchange relative to Cuba's GDP and calculates the susceptibility of economic indicators to shifts in sanctions (either easing or tightening) over the past three decades. Econometric findings demonstrate the impact of sanctions on Cuban economic growth. The findings suggest that tight sanctions negatively impact household consumption and Cuba's private sector. However, the data do not show a decline in the value of Cuban government consumption.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 2","pages":"540-553"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dunstan Matekenya, Francis Mulangu, David Newhouse
{"title":"Malnourished but Not Destitute: The Spatial Interplay Between Nutrition and Poverty in Madagascar","authors":"Dunstan Matekenya, Francis Mulangu, David Newhouse","doi":"10.1002/jid.3975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3975","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Hidden hunger is a global issue that affects an astounding 2 billion people, demanding targeted interventions for better resource allocation. However, conventional methods for identifying high-prevalence areas often prove impractical in developing countries. This study introduces a cost-effective and practical approach to detecting hidden hunger, combining household budget data with health surveys and applying these methods to Madagascar. By using small-area estimation techniques, the study achieves precise commune-level estimates, addressing the limitations of survey data representativeness. The findings challenge poverty-based targeting, revealing that 17.9% of stunted children belong to non-poor households. Additionally, 21.3% of non-stunted children are found in impoverished households, supporting Sen's argument that malnutrition extends beyond destitution. The analysis further highlights key commune-level determinants of hidden hunger, including access to healthcare, improved roads, telecommunication networks and productive agricultural activities.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 2","pages":"554-569"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Aspirational Revolution or Aspiration Failure? Gendered Effect of Household Wealth on Educational Aspirations in China","authors":"In Hyee Hwang, Semee Yoon","doi":"10.1002/jid.3971","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3971","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the gendered impact of household wealth on children's educational aspirations in China. Using two waves of longitudinal survey data of Chinese households from 2012 and 2016, we find that household assets have a differential impact on girls' and boys' educational aspirations. Household assets have a significant and positive impact on girls' aspirations for higher education, especially for graduate school, whereas boys' aspirations remain relatively stable across asset levels. We also demonstrate that this positive impact of household assets on girls' educational aspirations is limited to girls with same-sex siblings. Girls with sisters are more likely to report an increase in aspirations for higher education with increasing levels of household assets. Conversely, for girls with brothers, household assets have a negative impact on their aspirations for higher education. Our findings suggest that traditional gender norms and family investment strategies play a critical role in shaping educational aspirations, particularly in families with both sons and daughters.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 2","pages":"521-539"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}