From Conflict to Prosperity: The Economic Impact of the Colombian Peace Agreements

IF 1.7 4区经济学 Q3 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Journal of International Development Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI:10.1002/jid.3981

Fernando Martin Mayoral, Carlos Andrés Rivera Lasso

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The peace negotiations between the FARC-EP and the Colombian government from 2013 to 2016 aimed to end years of violence, loss of life, destruction of infrastructure and social fragmentation. This study uses the synthetic control method to analyse the impact on Colombia's real GDP per capita growth, controlling for economic, demographic and institutional aspects. The main results show that since 2014, Colombia has experienced a higher growth rate than its synthetic counterpart, reflecting a permanent change in the expectations of economic agents since the beginning of the peace process.

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从冲突到繁荣：哥伦比亚和平协议的经济影响

2013年至2016年，哥伦比亚革命武装力量-人民军与哥伦比亚政府之间的和平谈判旨在结束多年的暴力、生命损失、基础设施破坏和社会分裂。本研究采用综合控制方法来分析对哥伦比亚实际人均GDP增长的影响，控制经济，人口和制度方面。主要结果显示，自2014年以来，哥伦比亚经历了比其合成对手更高的增长率，反映了自和平进程开始以来经济主体预期的永久变化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Development DEVELOPMENT STUDIES-

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

109

期刊介绍： The Journal aims to publish the best research on international development issues in a form that is accessible to practitioners and policy-makers as well as to an academic audience. The main focus is on the social sciences - economics, politics, international relations, sociology and anthropology, as well as development studies - but we also welcome articles that blend the natural and social sciences in addressing the challenges for development. The Journal does not represent any particular school, analytical technique or methodological approach, but aims to publish high quality contributions to ideas, frameworks, policy and practice, including in transitional countries and underdeveloped areas of the Global North as well as the Global South.