Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance最新文献

{"title":"Banking on technology: Does FinTech improve bank performance?","authors":"Dongwei He ,&nbsp;Yumeng Wang ,&nbsp;Siyao Wu ,&nbsp;Xiaoyue Wang ,&nbsp;Jiacai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Financial technology (FinTech) has significantly affected the financial sector. Using a sample of Chinese banks, this study investigates FinTech’s impact on bank performance. We find that FinTech use improves bank profitability and solvency but reduces liquidity. Examining the impact of FinTech heterogeneity on bank performance reveals that banks with FinTech subsidiaries or divisions are not only more likely to improve capital adequacy but also suffer from more non-performing loans. Next, small and medium-sized banks benefit from greater profitability but experience lower capital adequacy and loan quality improvement when using FinTech. Notably, FinTech has the greatest effect on profitability and risk in banks with the highest systemic importance. Banks with better managerial abilities are also more capable of effectively using FinTech. Finally, channel analysis reveals that FinTech affects banks’ performance by improving operational efficiency and business growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102102"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does mining activity drive crash risks in bitcoin?","authors":"Matteo Bonato ,&nbsp;Riza Demirer ,&nbsp;Rangan Gupta ,&nbsp;Abeeb Olaniran","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the role of mining activity, proxied by growth rates of electricity consumption and cost of mining, as a driver of pricing inefficiencies in Bitcoin. Utilizing alternative measures of crash risk proxied by the realized negative coefficient of skewness and realized down-to-up volatility, derived from 5-minute intraday Bitcoin data, causality tests, along with sign analysis, captured by the estimates of partial average derivatives, provide evidence that mining activity can, in general, predict an increase in the entire conditional distribution of crash risk, with the strongest impact associated over the normal (median) to moderately high (upper quantiles) levels of risk. Despite the emergence of cryptocurrencies in international transactions and as an investment vehicle, our results suggest that decentralized mining process can contribute to inefficiencies in the pricing of Bitcoin, putting further doubt into the role of these assets as a medium of exchange, alternative to conventional assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102082"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Timing commonality in stock market misvaluation – Evidence from hedge funds","authors":"Yao Zheng ,&nbsp;Eric Osmer ,&nbsp;Dingding Zu","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the ability of hedge fund managers to exploit systematic stock market misvaluation through dynamic adjustments of market exposure. Our findings reveal that managers increase exposure during periods of widespread underpricing, capitalizing on valuation anomalies to enhance returns. The out-of-sample analysis demonstrates a 4 % annual performance gap between top and bottom misvaluation timers, which is robust across subperiods and excluding crisis periods. Additional analysis finds that misvaluation-timing ability is primarily driven by incentive structures, such as high incentive fees and high-water mark provisions, and that younger funds demonstrate superior timing capabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102085"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Knightian uncertainty on short- and long-termism of firm investment: From the perspective of dynamic financial contract","authors":"Chen Fei ,&nbsp;Liang Li ,&nbsp;Renzhong Li ,&nbsp;Weiyin Fei","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agency conflicts can affect a firm’s investment of short- and long-termism, while both the decision-making of the principal and the agent can be affected by Knightian uncertainty (KU). Thus, this paper constructs a dynamic contract model under KU and analyzes the influence of KU on the firm’s investment of short- and long-termism. First, the dynamic equations for cash flow and capital stock evolution are described based on the sublinear expectation theory, and the principal’s and agent’s expected return functions are defined. Second, using the first-order conditions, we derive the first-best (<span><math><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>B</mi></mrow></math></span>) short- and long-term investment (<span><math><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>B</mi></mrow></msup></math></span> and <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>l</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>B</mi></mrow></msup></math></span>) as a benchmark scenario (without agency conflicts). Third, the <span><math><mi>G</mi></math></span>-Hamilton–Jacobi-Bellman (<span><math><mi>G</mi></math></span>-HJB) equation satisfied by the value function of optimization problem is derived by using the nonlinear dynamic programming principle, and the optimal short- and long-term investment (<span><math><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> and <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>l</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup></math></span>) are solved. Then, the characteristics of the firm’s optimal investment of short- and long-termism (represented by <span><math><mrow><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup><mo>/</mo><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>B</mi></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><msup><mrow><mi>l</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup><mo>/</mo><msup><mrow><mi>l</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>F</mi><mi>B</mi></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>) are analyzed by numerical simulation, and the corresponding economic explanation is given. Finally, this paper takes the A-share listed firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2017 to 2022 as the research object for the empirical test, and the empirical results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. The results show that the optimal investment of short- and long-termism should be adjusted accordingly with the changes of KU and financial slack degree, so as to adapt to the realistic environment filled with uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102089"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sentiment, uncertainty, and bond return predictability","authors":"Hankil Kang ,&nbsp;Doojin Ryu","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102083","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102083","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether sentiment and uncertainty predict bond excess returns, with a particular focus on their interaction. Individually, both sentiment and uncertainty exhibit limited predictive power. While the interaction term between news-based sentiment and uncertainty does not predict bond excess returns, the interaction term constructed with market-based sentiment significantly enhances predictability. These findings indicate that the market-based sentiment–uncertainty interaction captures the dynamics of behavioral mispricing corrections, whereas the news-based measure primarily reflects macroeconomic confidence rather than behavioral sentiment, explaining its limited forecasting relevance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102083"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does peers’ valuation matter? Evidence from corporate cash holdings","authors":"Xin Li ,&nbsp;Zhenzhen Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine how peer firm valuations influence corporate cash holdings. Our analysis shows that firms hold more cash when their industry peers are highly valued. Specifically, a one-standard deviation increase in peer valuation is associated with a 3.35% rise in a firm’s cash holdings, corresponding to approximately 13.51% of the sample’s average cash ratio. This relationship remains robust after accounting for firm-level determinants of cash policy. The effect is particularly pronounced among financially constrained firms with strong governance. We argue that financially constrained firms respond more strongly to peer valuations because of their higher cost of external financing, while well-governed firms are more inclined to adjust their cash policies in response to market signals, reflecting stronger oversight and a greater capacity for forward-looking decisions. Overall, these findings suggest that managers incorporate peer valuation information into cash policy decisions, consistent with learning or benchmarking behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102084"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Board composition, private sector development, and corporate crime: Evidence from China","authors":"Xinxin Ma ,&nbsp;Ichiro Iwasaki","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using individual firm data from the Orbis and Global Risk Information Database and regional level data, this study investigates the influence of corporate board composition and the regional development of private sector on corporate crimes in China during the period from January 2020 to September 2023. The empirical results indicate that board size and board gender diversity significantly influence the crime rate, whereas the effect of board independence is insignificant. This study first finds that private sector development significantly reduces corporate crime. These findings are robust across various samples and estimation models. Furthermore, the effects of board composition and private sector development differ by corporate crime type.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102081"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial literacy, cognitive abilities and gender gap","authors":"Stephen Agnew ,&nbsp;Patrick Roger ,&nbsp;Tristan Roger","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how cognitive abilities explain variation in financial literacy among teenagers. We consider three dimensions of cognition: cognitive reflection, fluid intelligence, and approximate numeracy. Together, these measures account for nearly half of the variance in financial literacy scores and help explain the observed gender gap. While we find that the gender gap in financial literacy is entirely accounted for by differences in cognitive reflection, we do not find a similar result for approximate numeracy or fluid intelligence. These findings suggest that the gap is not driven by general cognitive differences across gender but by specific features that are shared by the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) and the financial literacy test and that disproportionately penalize girls.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102098"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Credit risk contagion across China’s real-estate industrial chain","authors":"Ran Huang,&nbsp;Qi Zhou,&nbsp;Yingxin Chang,&nbsp;Die Hu,&nbsp;Yongmin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines credit-risk contagion across China’s real-estate industrial chain and investigates how state transitions in external economic variables reshape the structural features of risk contagion. Results show that upper-midstream and midstream industries are the primary risk-transmission layers, while real-estate development, cement, glass and household-appliance industries act as the main contagion hubs. Furthermore, as economic-policy uncertainty rises from low to high, or as external financing conditions move from tight to loose, or as real-estate market activity shifts from high to low, the contagion network becomes denser and more bidirectional, amplifying both the speed and complexity of credit-risk propagation. Notably, the real-estate development industry remains a pivotal multi-path multi-directional transmitter regardless of the state transitions of these external economic variables. These findings provide regulators with a crucial reference for targeted oversight of credit risk contagion across industries and offer investors guidance for the dynamic optimization of real-estate-linked portfolio risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102103"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Information disclosure and bidding structure: Evidence from the London bus market","authors":"Michael Waterson ,&nbsp;Jian Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.102105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does providing more information impact bidding structure in repeated procurement? We empirically examine the effects on a set of bidding outcomes after provision of increased information to participants in the London bus market, using an event study approach. We find that (i) The highest bid and the lowest bid move closer; (ii) There is a lesser tendency for the incumbent to win; (iii) Firms with a nearer garage that are not incumbents have a greater chance of winning, so more routes move to new operators; (iv) However, the tendency for incumbents to win does not change when their garages are some distance from the route; and (v) Winning prices rise, other things equal, with respect to the Transport for London inflation adjuster, a factor we investigate further. These results are consistent with more information release improving bidders’ decision making and mitigating incumbents’ advantage, but additionally they led to higher prices overall.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 102105"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}