Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance最新文献

Anticipated vs. realized stock price reactions to M&A announcements: The effect of investor beliefs on abnormal returns and event study inferences 预期与实现股价对并购公告的反应：投资者信念对异常收益的影响及事件研究推论

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102209

Jörg Prokop, Christopher Wilksen

{"title":"Anticipated vs. realized stock price reactions to M&A announcements: The effect of investor beliefs on abnormal returns and event study inferences","authors":"Jörg Prokop, Christopher Wilksen","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how investors’ anticipation of future mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and their prior beliefs about the potential wealth effects of such deals, influence acquirors’ abnormal returns around M&A announcement dates. Based on firm-level and industry-specific information, we construct a measure of prior beliefs by estimating the probability that a company will engage in value-enhancing or value-destroying M&A deals. When comparing predicted deal probabilities and value impacts with actual deal occurrence, we find that our model is effective in predicting future M&A activity. In addition, we demonstrate that it can more accurately predict the value implications of deals initiated by acquirors with higher deal probabilities. Despite this predictive ability, there is mixed evidence regarding whether investors trade on positive prior beliefs before the announcement of a deal, and no evidence of pre-announcement trading activity associated with negative prior beliefs. However, we find asymmetric belief adjustments upon announcement. Investors exhibit a significantly stronger reaction to unexpected value-destroying deals, while underreacting to unexpected value-enhancing deals. These findings are in line with prospect theory, suggesting that loss aversion and reference point dependence shape investor reactions to anticipated M&A activity. In this regard, our study highlights a behavioural channel through which deal anticipation and prior beliefs may introduce systematic bias in short-term event studies, with important implications for the interpretation of abnormal returns and the design of empirical tests in corporate finance research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102209"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148958664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial asymmetries in green finance: Central bias in urban carbon mitigation across Chinese cities 绿色金融的空间不对称：中国城市碳减排的中心偏差

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102214

Langang Feng, Lixia Shen, Jin Hu, Muhammad Irfan, Kaiya Wu

{"title":"Spatial asymmetries in green finance: Central bias in urban carbon mitigation across Chinese cities","authors":"Langang Feng, Lixia Shen, Jin Hu, Muhammad Irfan, Kaiya Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The spatial dynamics of green finance (GF) is crucial to understanding the effective path of urban decarbonization. This study explores the “central bias” caused by China’s Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zone (GFRIPZ) in terms of carbon emission reduction, focusing on the differences between urban centers and surrounding areas. By analyzing the panel data of 278 cities from 2011 to 2022 and using the difference-in-differences (DID), we have provided strong causal evidence that the implementation of GFRIPZ has significantly reduced carbon emissions, and the impact is most significant in urban central areas. Three main conclusions were drawn from this study: (1) The spatial imbalance caused by GFRIPZ to reduce carbon emissions supports the existence of central bias; (2) These effects are most pronounced in cities in the central and eastern regions, small cities, and non-resource-based cities; (3) Mechanism analysis shows that the improvement of energy utilization efficiency, green technological innovation and governmental ecological concern to ecological issues are the main driving factors. Our findings highlight the policy relevance of spatially differentiated carbon reduction and provide new empirical evidence for improving green finance initiatives to achieve sustainable urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102214"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148958662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating systemic shocks: Does financial literacy empower rural households to protect wealth? 应对系统性冲击：金融知识是否使农村家庭有能力保护财富？

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102215

Chuna Chen, Dongju Li, Jiaxing Wang

{"title":"Navigating systemic shocks: Does financial literacy empower rural households to protect wealth?","authors":"Chuna Chen, Dongju Li, Jiaxing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102215","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102215","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to clarify the mechanism through which financial literacy converts into economic resilience during systemic crises, particularly in environments with varying levels of institutional support. Exploiting the pandemic as a quasi-natural experiment and utilizing panel data from the China Household Finance Survey (2015–2021), we identify the causal effect of financial literacy on wealth preservation through difference-in-differences and triple-difference models. Our findings reveal that while the pandemic hindered wealth accumulation, financial literacy provided a critical shield, significantly mitigating wealth losses. Two distinct channels for this protective effect are evidenced: financial literacy facilitates the adoption of digital financial tools and encourages portfolio diversification, thereby reducing household financial vulnerability. Crucially, heterogeneity analysis uncovers a significant substitution effect: the wealth-protective role of financial literacy is most potent in regions with underdeveloped financial infrastructure. In these resource-constrained environments, financial literacy acts as a cognitive surrogate for physical banking access, effectively offsetting institutional voids during systemic uncertainty. By characterizing financial literacy as a compensatory mechanism and a strategic substitute for physical infrastructure, this study provides forward-looking insights into how intangible human capital fosters household resilience. These findings underscore the need for targeted financial education as a strategic tool for economic stability, particularly for vulnerable groups in remote areas, to prevent the financial literacy gap from evolving into permanent economic inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102215"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148958666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When safe havens fail: Time-scale dependent hedging dynamics in commodity-dependent emerging markets 当安全港失败：依赖大宗商品的新兴市场中依赖时间尺度的对冲动态

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102216

Abdullah AlGhazali, Rim El Khoury, Walid Mensi, Remzi Gök, Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee

{"title":"When safe havens fail: Time-scale dependent hedging dynamics in commodity-dependent emerging markets","authors":"Abdullah AlGhazali, Rim El Khoury, Walid Mensi, Remzi Gök, Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102216","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102216","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines why conventional safe havens often fail in commodity-dependent markets by analyzing the dynamic connectedness between Oman’s equity sectors and key global assets—oil, gold, green bonds, and renewable energy. Using weekly data from 2010 to 2025 and a framework combining Quantile-on-Quantile Frequency Connectedness (QQ-FC), Wavelet Quantile Correlation (WQC), and Minimum Connectedness Portfolios (MCoP), we assess hedging performance across market states and investment horizons. The results show that safe-haven properties are strongly time-scale dependent. Gold serves as a long-term hedge but offers little short-term protection. Green bonds provide long-run diversification benefits, whereas renewable energy equities behave as pro-cyclical risk assets rather than defensive instruments. Connectedness is also asymmetric, strengthening during bullish conditions and reducing diversification when investor sentiment is strongest. Portfolio results further show that connectedness-aware strategies outperform conventional approaches. Overall, the findings challenge static diversification rules and highlight the need for dynamic, horizon-specific hedging strategies in commodity-dependent markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"109 ","pages":"Article 102216"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148958665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Extension of marginal conditional stochastic dominance to prospect and Markowitz stochastic dominance rules 边际条件随机优势在勘探和马科维茨随机优势规则中的推广

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102159

Kazuki Nakamura

{"title":"Extension of marginal conditional stochastic dominance to prospect and Markowitz stochastic dominance rules","authors":"Kazuki Nakamura","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102159","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102159","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The more recent studies of prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory challenge expected utility theory and stochastic dominance (SD) rules which have been developed within the expected utility paradigm. Specifically, prospect stochastic dominance (PSD) is appropriate for all S-shape preferences while Markowitz stochastic dominance (MSD) corresponds to all reverse S-shape preferences. The use of these rules allows one to determine whether some investors have S-shape or reverse S-shape preferences because one has a deal of freedom in specifying partial information. However, these rules cannot identify in a simple way all SD efficient diversification strategies, while marginal conditional stochastic dominance (MCSD) considers marginal changes in the shares of two assets in a portfolio and can determine whether the portfolio is SD efficient relative to all other possible portfolios constructed from available assets. In this paper, we extend MCSD to PSD and MSD so that the concept of PSD and MSD can be applied more readily to financial markets. One can use these criteria to partially characterize the set of investors with S-shape or reverse S-shape preferences who choose the dominating asset over the dominated asset via the marginal changes in the shares of assets, given a portfolio. We also extend the analysis to allow for changes in many assets of a portfolio so that it is possible to find no portfolios which dominate a given portfolio by PSD or MSD. Thus, this extension deals with the question whether a portfolio is PSD or MSD efficient relative to the other possible portfolios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"108 ","pages":"Article 102159"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148542560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analytically pricing commodity futures options within a multi-layered stochastic financialization framework 多层次随机金融化框架下商品期货期权的分析定价

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102175

Wenting Chen, Fangzhao Zhou, Wei Xu, Xin-Jiang He

引用次数: 0

Corporate venture capital and CEO risk incentives: Evidence from venture capital-backed initial public offerings 企业风险资本与CEO风险激励：来自风险资本支持的首次公开募股的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102180

Yun-Chi Lee, Robin K. Chou

引用次数: 0

Corporate tax cuts, the cost of capital, and economic activity 企业减税、资本成本和经济活动

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102162

Alessandro Piergallini

{"title":"Corporate tax cuts, the cost of capital, and economic activity","authors":"Alessandro Piergallini","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102162","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2026.102162","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Several real-world patterns of tax structures since the 1980s exhibit reductions in corporate income tax rates—most notably exemplified by the 2017 U.S. fiscal reform and the current U.S. government tax policy agenda. This paper provides a general equilibrium model of production and financial choices by firms under distortionary taxation and characterizes the long-run and dynamic effects of corporate tax cuts. It shows that these effects depend not only on production decisions, as set forth by the existing literature, but also on the mode of corporate finance and the stance of monetary policy. It establishes conditions under which, contrary to what is commonly believed, corporate tax cuts can dampen — rather than boost — the capital-labor ratio and real wages. A key underlying mechanism is the negative pass-through from the corporate tax rate to the equilibrium weighted average cost of capital, driven by the tax shield effect of nominal interest deductibility. The results derived in this paper lend analytical support to the view that accounting for both the capital structure employed by firms and the monetary variables pinned down by the central bank’s interest rate policy is essential when evaluating theoretically and empirically the properties of corporate tax policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"108 ","pages":"Article 102162"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148542558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The windfall-income donation norm 意外收入捐赠标准

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102166

Michalis Drouvelis, Adam Isen, Benjamin M. Marx

引用次数: 0

Policy discontinuity and the efficiency of environmental investment: Evidence from China 政策不连续与环境投资效率：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学

Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2026.102179

Kai Wan , Xiaolin Yu

引用次数: 0