Purba Bhattacherjee , Sibanjan Mishra , Sang Hoon Kang
{"title":"Extreme frequency connectedness, determinants and portfolio analysis of major cryptocurrencies: Insights from quantile time-frequency approach","authors":"Purba Bhattacherjee , Sibanjan Mishra , Sang Hoon Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study examines the extreme time-frequency connectedness among 12 major cryptocurrencies for the period from February 26, 2018, to February 6, 2024. We employ the novel TVP-VAR approach proposed by Chatziantoniou et al. (2022), and three portfolio construction methods (i.e., MVP, MCP and MCoP). The results reveal interesting insights. First, it unveils the diverse sensitivities of individual cryptocurrencies to total return shocks, with short-term events exerting a predominant influence compared to long-term shocks. Notably, most cryptocurrencies act as net transmitters of shocks, reflecting their susceptibility to external market fluctuations. Second, the variations in the behavior of cryptocurrencies are observed during extreme market conditions and crisis periods, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, the outcomes of the portfolio construction process provide light on the efficacy of hedging as well as the performance of the portfolio. Notably, the minimum correlation portfolio (MCP) strategy outperforms other techniques, highlighting its superiority in terms of optimizing portfolio performance. Lastly, we report that macroeconomic factors and asset-based volatility are the significant drivers of cryptocurrency contagion. However, the degree and direction of their impact vary across market conditions and time-frequency horizons. These findings have important policy ramifications since they point to the necessity of strong regulatory frameworks and risk management techniques to reduce systemic risks and protect the financial stability of the bitcoin market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101974"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do foreign bank investors promote acquirer bank value in Asia-Pacific countries?","authors":"Yoko Shirasu , Yukihiro Yasuda","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mergers and acquisitions play a crucial part in global investment, particularly in the banking sector. We use comprehensive data on banks’ mergers and acquisitions in Asia-Pacific countries to investigate the performance implications of different types of foreign institutional investors holding equity stakes in acquirer banks. We find that acquirer banks with higher equity stakes from foreign bank investors experience an increase in their Q ratios, a proxy for bank value, and loan ratios in the three years post-acquisition when their income streams are diversified. By contrast, acquirer banks in which investment advisors or fund-type investors hold significant ownership stakes fail to expand their core business in the long run despite short-term cost reductions. Our findings suggest that bank-type foreign investors in Asia’s opaque banking industry improve acquirer bank performance through influential advisory functions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101963"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Markowitz portfolios under transaction costs","authors":"Olivier Ledoit, Michael Wolf","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Markowitz portfolio selection is a cornerstone in finance, in academia as well as in the industry. Most academic studies either ignore transaction costs or account for them in a way that is both unrealistic and suboptimal by (i) assuming transaction costs to be constant across stocks and (ii) ignoring them at the portfolio-selection state and simply paying them after the fact. Our paper proposes a method to fix both shortcomings. As we show, if transaction costs are accounted for (properly) at the portfolio-selection stage, net performance in terms of the Sharpe ratio often increases, in particular for high-turnover strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101962"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143130275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Valter T. Yoshida Junior , Rafael Schiozer , Alan de Genaro , Toni R.E. dos Santos
{"title":"A novel credit model risk measure: Do more data lead to lower model risk?","authors":"Valter T. Yoshida Junior , Rafael Schiozer , Alan de Genaro , Toni R.E. dos Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101960","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Large databases and Machine Learning enhance our capacity to develop models with many observations and explanatory variables. While the literature has primarily focused on optimizing classifications, little attention has been given to model risk, especially originating from inadequate use. To address this gap, we introduce a new metric for assessing model risk in credit applications. We test the metric using cross-section LASSO default models, each incorporating 200 thousand loan observations from several banks and more than 100 explanatory variables. The results indicate that models that use loans from a single bank have lower model risk than models using loans from the entire financial system. Therefore, adding loans from different banks to increase the number of observations in a model is suboptimal, challenging the widely accepted assumption that more data leads to better predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101960"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143130277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Time-varying impacts of monetary policies on state-level housing markets: Evidence from the Covid-19 period","authors":"MeiChi Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the time-varying influences of monetary policies on state-level housing markets, utilizing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV). The results suggest that time-varying state-level volatilities in housing price returns and permits growths are evident, and some of them are higher in the Covid-19 period 2020–22 than the 2007–09 housing crisis. Monetary policies exert less persistent but stronger effects on housing quantities than housing prices. The findings provide supportive evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic enhances monetary-policy influences, and aggressive contractionary monetary policies in 2022 play vital roles in driving state-level housing markets. The differences and commonalities across state-level housing markets yield new implications for policy-making and risk diversification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101961"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143130271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joseph Attila , Jean-Louis Combes , Rasmané Ouedraogo
{"title":"Natural disasters and bank liquidity creation in Sub-Saharan African countries: Evidence from banks panel data","authors":"Joseph Attila , Jean-Louis Combes , Rasmané Ouedraogo","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effects of natural disasters on bank liquidity creation in sub-Saharan African during the period 1988–2018. Using bank-level data from more than 30 countries, we find that natural disasters affect negatively the liquidity creation in the region. The cumulative effect over the three years following a disaster is economically significant, amounting to a total reduction of 4 % in the average liquidity generated. This impact is mainly channeled through the asset-side activities of banks. We also find heterogeneous impact of natural disasters on bank liquidity creation based on the size of banks, the magnitude of disasters and the income level of countries. Moreover, these effects are mainly observed when disasters strike on a large-scale. On the contrary, there is no significant difference depending on whether or not the disaster is climatic in origin. Additional tests show that foreign ownership of banks as well as monetary policy change do not qualitatively alter our primary findings. These results support bank regulation policies taking into the specificities of banks operating in environments prone to frequent natural disasters. Specifically, we recommend that central banks implement targeted regulatory measures such as stress-testing or resilience programs. As natural disasters are likely to increase in the coming years due to climate change, we suggest that microprudential policies be further strengthened and adapted to incorporate climate change considerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101959"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143129718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Robust non-zero-sum investment–consumption games under multivariate stochastic covariance models","authors":"Yumo Zhang , Huainian Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper discusses a non-zero-sum stochastic differential game involving multiple players and model ambiguity. Each economic agent is concerned about the relative performance of other agents in terms of their average terminal wealth and intermediate consumption. The goal is to find the optimal investment–consumption strategy that is robust under the worst-case scenario of adverse probability measures. The competitive and ambiguity-averse agents can invest in an incomplete financial market composed of a risk-free asset, an equity index, and a single equity depicted by a class of generically non-Markovian multivariate stochastic covariance models, under which the market prices of risks hinge on a multivariate affine-diffusion factor process. The unified modeling framework includes some state-of-the-art stochastic covariance models as particular cases. A backward stochastic differential equation approach coupled with the martingale optimality principle addresses the robust non-Markovian stochastic differential game. Closed-form solutions are derived to the robust Nash equilibrium investment–consumption policies, the probability perturbation processes associated with the well-defined worst-case scenarios, and the corresponding value functions. Under certain technical conditions, we verify the admissibility of the solutions. Finally, we performed numerical experiments to showcase the impact of model parameters on robust investment–consumption strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101949"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143130273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quality differentiation and optimal pricing strategy in multi-sided markets","authors":"Soo Jin Kim , Pallavi Pal","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101900","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101900","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the generalized quality differentiation model in multi-sided markets with positive externalities, which leads to new insights into the optimal pricing structure of the firm. We find that quality differentiation for buyers affects not only the side involving differentiation but also the other side due to cross-side network externalities, thereby affecting the pricing structure of multi-sided firms. In addition, quality differentiation affects the strategic relationships among all the choice variables for the platform, enabling the platform to strategically use quality differentiation to increase its profits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101900"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142182828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Language as a trade barrier in public procurement: Evidence from Georgia's policies on English language documentation","authors":"George Deltas , Simon J. Evenett","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101898","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101898","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Foreign firm access to the public procurement markets—valued at some $13 trillion worldwide—is not governed by standard trade policies and multilateral trade accords. In trade policy circles, failure to publish procurement tenders in a global language is said to impede foreign market access. Exploiting the nature of Georgia’s public procurement regime, and changes in that regime during 2011–2015 that differed both across tender categories and over time, we use tender-level data to estimate the causal impact of a requirement to publish tenders in the English language on the likelihood a foreign firm wins a state contract, the total value of the winning bid, and the amount of cross-border trade induced. We find that provision of documentation in English doubled awards to foreign firms, and likely more so for small contracts. Finally, we convert our microdata-based estimates into the equivalent values that would have been obtained in gravity-style regressions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101898"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143152261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Make or buy for public services: Culture matters for efficiency considerations","authors":"Laure Athias, Pascal Wicht","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What determines the share of public employment in countries of similar levels of economic development, at a given size of the State? A standard answer from the public choice literature points to non-benevolent states, emphasizing the importance of constraints on their power. This paper challenges this view by investigating the role of culture and examining whether the relative cost-efficiency of public versus private provision varies across cultures. We build a representative database for contracting choices of municipalities in Switzerland and exploit the discontinuity at the Swiss language border at <em>identical</em> actual set of policies and institutions to analyze the causal effect of culture on the choice of how public services are provided. We find that French-speaking border municipalities are 60% less likely to contract with the private sector than their adjacent German-speaking counterparts. Technical dimensions are much smaller by comparison and their effects do not vary with culture, ruling out cultural bias in municipality choices. We further document that public provision, compared to private provision, increases cost-efficiency within French-speaking Swiss municipalities. These results resonate with the literature emphasizing that public bureaucracies are mission-oriented organizations whose organizational efficiency is enhanced through mission matching, but they also unveil that this mission matching is culturally determined.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101899"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143152262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}