Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance最新文献

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A novel credit model risk measure: Do more data lead to lower model risk? 一种新的信用模型风险度量:数据越多,模型风险越低吗?
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.101960
Valter T. Yoshida Junior , Rafael Schiozer , Alan de Genaro , Toni R.E. dos Santos
{"title":"A novel credit model risk measure: Do more data lead to lower model risk?","authors":"Valter T. Yoshida Junior ,&nbsp;Rafael Schiozer ,&nbsp;Alan de Genaro ,&nbsp;Toni R.E. dos Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101960","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Large databases and Machine Learning enhance our capacity to develop models with many observations and explanatory variables. While the literature has primarily focused on optimizing classifications, little attention has been given to model risk, especially originating from inadequate use. To address this gap, we introduce a new metric for assessing model risk in credit applications. We test the metric using cross-section LASSO default models, each incorporating 200 thousand loan observations from several banks and more than 100 explanatory variables. The results indicate that models that use loans from a single bank have lower model risk than models using loans from the entire financial system. Therefore, adding loans from different banks to increase the number of observations in a model is suboptimal, challenging the widely accepted assumption that more data leads to better predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101960"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143130277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time-varying impacts of monetary policies on state-level housing markets: Evidence from the Covid-19 period 货币政策对国家级住房市场的时变影响:来自2019冠状病毒病期间的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.101961
MeiChi Huang
{"title":"Time-varying impacts of monetary policies on state-level housing markets: Evidence from the Covid-19 period","authors":"MeiChi Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2025.101961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the time-varying influences of monetary policies on state-level housing markets, utilizing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV). The results suggest that time-varying state-level volatilities in housing price returns and permits growths are evident, and some of them are higher in the Covid-19 period 2020–22 than the 2007–09 housing crisis. Monetary policies exert less persistent but stronger effects on housing quantities than housing prices. The findings provide supportive evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic enhances monetary-policy influences, and aggressive contractionary monetary policies in 2022 play vital roles in driving state-level housing markets. The differences and commonalities across state-level housing markets yield new implications for policy-making and risk diversification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101961"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143130271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Natural disasters and bank liquidity creation in Sub-Saharan African countries: Evidence from banks panel data 撒哈拉以南非洲国家的自然灾害和银行流动性创造:来自银行面板数据的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.101959
Joseph Attila , Jean-Louis Combes , Rasmané Ouedraogo
{"title":"Natural disasters and bank liquidity creation in Sub-Saharan African countries: Evidence from banks panel data","authors":"Joseph Attila ,&nbsp;Jean-Louis Combes ,&nbsp;Rasmané Ouedraogo","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the effects of natural disasters on bank liquidity creation in sub-Saharan African during the period 1988–2018. Using bank-level data from more than 30 countries, we find that natural disasters affect negatively the liquidity creation in the region. The cumulative effect over the three years following a disaster is economically significant, amounting to a total reduction of 4 % in the average liquidity generated. This impact is mainly channeled through the asset-side activities of banks. We also find heterogeneous impact of natural disasters on bank liquidity creation based on the size of banks, the magnitude of disasters and the income level of countries. Moreover, these effects are mainly observed when disasters strike on a large-scale. On the contrary, there is no significant difference depending on whether or not the disaster is climatic in origin. Additional tests show that foreign ownership of banks as well as monetary policy change do not qualitatively alter our primary findings. These results support bank regulation policies taking into the specificities of banks operating in environments prone to frequent natural disasters. Specifically, we recommend that central banks implement targeted regulatory measures such as stress-testing or resilience programs. As natural disasters are likely to increase in the coming years due to climate change, we suggest that microprudential policies be further strengthened and adapted to incorporate climate change considerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101959"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143129718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robust non-zero-sum investment–consumption games under multivariate stochastic covariance models 多元随机协方差模型下的稳健非零和投资-消费博弈
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.101949
Yumo Zhang , Huainian Zhu
{"title":"Robust non-zero-sum investment–consumption games under multivariate stochastic covariance models","authors":"Yumo Zhang ,&nbsp;Huainian Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper discusses a non-zero-sum stochastic differential game involving multiple players and model ambiguity. Each economic agent is concerned about the relative performance of other agents in terms of their average terminal wealth and intermediate consumption. The goal is to find the optimal investment–consumption strategy that is robust under the worst-case scenario of adverse probability measures. The competitive and ambiguity-averse agents can invest in an incomplete financial market composed of a risk-free asset, an equity index, and a single equity depicted by a class of generically non-Markovian multivariate stochastic covariance models, under which the market prices of risks hinge on a multivariate affine-diffusion factor process. The unified modeling framework includes some state-of-the-art stochastic covariance models as particular cases. A backward stochastic differential equation approach coupled with the martingale optimality principle addresses the robust non-Markovian stochastic differential game. Closed-form solutions are derived to the robust Nash equilibrium investment–consumption policies, the probability perturbation processes associated with the well-defined worst-case scenarios, and the corresponding value functions. Under certain technical conditions, we verify the admissibility of the solutions. Finally, we performed numerical experiments to showcase the impact of model parameters on robust investment–consumption strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101949"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143130273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quality differentiation and optimal pricing strategy in multi-sided markets 多面市场中的质量差异和最优定价策略
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.101900
Soo Jin Kim , Pallavi Pal
{"title":"Quality differentiation and optimal pricing strategy in multi-sided markets","authors":"Soo Jin Kim ,&nbsp;Pallavi Pal","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101900","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101900","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the generalized quality differentiation model in multi-sided markets with positive externalities, which leads to new insights into the optimal pricing structure of the firm. We find that quality differentiation for buyers affects not only the side involving differentiation but also the other side due to cross-side network externalities, thereby affecting the pricing structure of multi-sided firms. In addition, quality differentiation affects the strategic relationships among all the choice variables for the platform, enabling the platform to strategically use quality differentiation to increase its profits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101900"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142182828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Language as a trade barrier in public procurement: Evidence from Georgia's policies on English language documentation 语言是公共采购中的贸易壁垒:来自格鲁吉亚英语文件政策的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.101898
George Deltas , Simon J. Evenett
{"title":"Language as a trade barrier in public procurement: Evidence from Georgia's policies on English language documentation","authors":"George Deltas ,&nbsp;Simon J. Evenett","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101898","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101898","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Foreign firm access to the public procurement markets—valued at some $13 trillion worldwide—is not governed by standard trade policies and multilateral trade accords. In trade policy circles, failure to publish procurement tenders in a global language is said to impede foreign market access. Exploiting the nature of Georgia’s public procurement regime, and changes in that regime during 2011–2015 that differed both across tender categories and over time, we use tender-level data to estimate the causal impact of a requirement to publish tenders in the English language on the likelihood a foreign firm wins a state contract, the total value of the winning bid, and the amount of cross-border trade induced. We find that provision of documentation in English doubled awards to foreign firms, and likely more so for small contracts. Finally, we convert our microdata-based estimates into the equivalent values that would have been obtained in gravity-style regressions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101898"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143152261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Make or buy for public services: Culture matters for efficiency considerations 为公共服务制造或购买:文化对效率的考虑很重要
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.101899
Laure Athias, Pascal Wicht
{"title":"Make or buy for public services: Culture matters for efficiency considerations","authors":"Laure Athias,&nbsp;Pascal Wicht","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What determines the share of public employment in countries of similar levels of economic development, at a given size of the State? A standard answer from the public choice literature points to non-benevolent states, emphasizing the importance of constraints on their power. This paper challenges this view by investigating the role of culture and examining whether the relative cost-efficiency of public versus private provision varies across cultures. We build a representative database for contracting choices of municipalities in Switzerland and exploit the discontinuity at the Swiss language border at <em>identical</em> actual set of policies and institutions to analyze the causal effect of culture on the choice of how public services are provided. We find that French-speaking border municipalities are 60% less likely to contract with the private sector than their adjacent German-speaking counterparts. Technical dimensions are much smaller by comparison and their effects do not vary with culture, ruling out cultural bias in municipality choices. We further document that public provision, compared to private provision, increases cost-efficiency within French-speaking Swiss municipalities. These results resonate with the literature emphasizing that public bureaucracies are mission-oriented organizations whose organizational efficiency is enhanced through mission matching, but they also unveil that this mission matching is culturally determined.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101899"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143152262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Control contestability, large shareholder identity, and corporate risk-taking: International evidence 控制权可竞争性、大股东认同与企业风险承担:国际证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.101957
Carlos Cid-Aranda , Félix López-Iturriaga
{"title":"Control contestability, large shareholder identity, and corporate risk-taking: International evidence","authors":"Carlos Cid-Aranda ,&nbsp;Félix López-Iturriaga","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyse the relationship between ownership structure and corporate risk-taking in a sample of 271 listed firms from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru between 2005 and 2020. We find that contesting the largest shareholder increases corporate risk-taking. We also show that the influence of largest shareholders on corporate risk-taking is conditional on shareholder identity; whereas family and government control is associated with lower corporate risk-taking, foreign control has the opposite influence. Finally, our results show that when the two largest shareholders are families, they align their interests to support conservative decisions and that when the largest shareholder is a family but the second is an institutional investor, contesting control attenuates suboptimal risk policies. Our results contribute to the literature by reporting evidence to disentangle the heterogeneity within blockholders and the bivalent relationship between controlling and non-controlling large owners. We provide valuable results to policymakers, investors, and practitioners alike vis-à-vis discussing how specific ownership structures encourage risk-taking attitudes and –presumably– value-increasing policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101957"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disclosure in corporate pension plans using a regression discontinuity design 采用回归不连续设计的企业养老金计划披露
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.101936
Yuree Lim
{"title":"Disclosure in corporate pension plans using a regression discontinuity design","authors":"Yuree Lim","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101936","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101936","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disclosure affects corporate pension plans’ shrouded fees. Using a 2009 disclosure regulation of pension service providers’ fees and a regression discontinuity (RD) design, we show that pension plans subject to the disclosure requirement are more likely to report increased total administrative fees. The source of these increased fees is an increase in investment advisory and management fees. Our results are robust to various identification tests. Our evidence suggests sizable shrouded fees of approximately $27 per participant in a corporate pension plan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101936"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143152263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Who’s more efficient and drives others? Profit sharing rates vs. deposit rates 谁更有效率,能驱动别人?利润分成率和存款利率
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.101950
Remzi Gök , Shawkat Hammoudeh , Ahdi Noomen Ajmi
{"title":"Who’s more efficient and drives others? Profit sharing rates vs. deposit rates","authors":"Remzi Gök ,&nbsp;Shawkat Hammoudeh ,&nbsp;Ahdi Noomen Ajmi","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the existence of the explosive behavior, long memory and causal impacts for the Islamic and conventional banking sectors in Türkiye during the 2012–2023 period. The procedure detects multiple bubble episodes in all maturities of profit-sharing rates and shorter maturities of deposit rates, mostly intensified after 2017, Islamic banking has longer-lived bubble episodes than conventional banking, and the duration decreases as the maturity increases. We find that the Hurst exponent is significantly greater than 0.50 for Islamic banking, while its magnitude decreases and goes below 0.50 for the maturity longer than 3 months in the conventional banking as the maturity increases in the full sample period. Conventional banking rates are more efficient, and the level of efficiency rises as maturity increases. We find bidirectional causalities between the 1-month maturities and report one-way short-run causal flows from the conventional banking rates for other three maturities. Multifaceted implications for investors and policymakers are discussed in detail.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101950"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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