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Annual Review of Economics最新文献

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Empirical Models of Industry Dynamics with Endogenous Market Structure 基于内生市场结构的产业动态实证模型
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-081720-120019
Steven T. Berry,Giovanni Compiani
{"title":"Empirical Models of Industry Dynamics with Endogenous Market Structure","authors":"Steven T. Berry,Giovanni Compiani","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-081720-120019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-081720-120019","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews recent developments in the study of firm and industry dynamics, with a special emphasis on the econometric endogeneity of market structure. The endogeneity of market structure follows from the presence of serially correlated unobservable shocks to the profitability of firms’ dynamic decisions, a feature common to many empirical settings. Methods that ignore endogeneity can lead to misleading parameter estimates and misleading counterfactual results. We pay particular attention to extensions of standard two-step methods that leverage instrumental variables to address endogeneity in both single-agent and oligopoly models. A first step set-identifies dynamic policy functions together with serial correlation parameters, and a second step quickly solves for profit function parameters using an extension of existing forward-simulation methods. We discuss how these new methods provide a general solution to initial-conditions problems and how they can yield practical estimation strategies.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138519877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Story of the Real Exchange Rate 真实汇率的故事
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-025532
Oleg Itskhoki
{"title":"The Story of the Real Exchange Rate","authors":"Oleg Itskhoki","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-025532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-025532","url":null,"abstract":"The real exchange rate (RER) measures relative price levels across countries, capturing deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). RER is a key variable in international macroeconomic models as it is central to equilibrium conditions in both goods and asset markets. It is also one of the most starkly behaving variables empirically, tightly comoving with the nominal exchange rate and virtually uncorrelated with most other macroeconomic variables, nominal or real. This review lays out an equilibrium framework of RER determination, focusing separately on each building block and discussing corresponding empirical evidence. We emphasize home bias and incomplete pass-through into prices with expenditure switching and goods market clearing, imperfect international risk sharing, country budget constraint, and monetary policy regime. We show that RER is inherently a general equilibrium variable that depends on the full model structure and policy regime, and therefore partial theories like PPP are insufficient to explain it. We also discuss issues of stationarity and predictability of exchange rates.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138515128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism 全球化为何助长民粹主义?经济、文化与右翼民粹主义的兴起
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-070220-032416
Dani Rodrik
{"title":"Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism","authors":"Dani Rodrik","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-070220-032416","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-070220-032416","url":null,"abstract":"There is compelling evidence that globalization shocks, often working through culture and identity, have played an important role in driving up support for populist movements, particularly of the right-wing kind. I start with an empirical analysis of the 2016 presidential election in the United States to show that globalization-related attitudinal variables were important correlates of the switch to Trump. I then provide a conceptual framework that identifies four distinct channels through which globalization can stimulate populism, two each on the demand and supply sides of politics. I evaluate the empirical literature with the help of this framework, discussing trade, financial globalization, and immigration separately. I conclude the review by discussing some apparently anomalous cases in which populists have been against, rather than in favor of, trade protection.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138519871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Economics of Currency Risk 货币风险经济学
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-092220-103354
Tarek A. Hassan,Tony Zhang
{"title":"The Economics of Currency Risk","authors":"Tarek A. Hassan,Tony Zhang","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-092220-103354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-092220-103354","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews the literature on currency and country risk with a focus on their macroeconomic origins and implications. A growing body of evidence shows that countries with safer currencies enjoy persistently lower interest rates and a lower required return to capital. As a result, they accumulate relatively more capital than countries with currencies that international investors perceive as risky. Whereas earlier research focused mainly on the role of currency risk in generating violations of uncovered interest parity and other financial anomalies, more recent evidence points to important implications for the allocation of capital across countries, the efficacy of exchange rate stabilization policies, the sustainability of trade deficits, and the spillovers of shocks across international borders.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138515132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Econometrics of Early Childhood Human Capital and Investments 幼儿人力资本与投资的计量经济学
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053409
Flávio Cunha, Eric R. Nielsen, Benjamin Williams
{"title":"The Econometrics of Early Childhood Human Capital and Investments","authors":"Flávio Cunha, Eric R. Nielsen, Benjamin Williams","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053409","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews recent developments in the econometrics of early childhood human capital and investments. We start with a discussion about the lack of cardinality in test scores, the reasons it matters for empirical research on human capital, and the approaches researchers have used to address this problem. Next, we discuss how the literature has accounted for the errors in human capital measurements and investments. Then, we focus on the estimation of production functions of human capital. We present two different specifications of the production function and discuss when to use one versus the other. We describe how researchers have addressed cardinality, measurement errors, and endogeneity of inputs to estimate the technology of skill formation. Finally, we take stock of the work to date, and we identify opportunities for new research directions in this field.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41412175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Large Games: Robustness and Stability 分析大型游戏的稳健性和稳定性
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-08-02 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-072720-042303
R. Gradwohl, E. Kalai
{"title":"Large Games: Robustness and Stability","authors":"R. Gradwohl, E. Kalai","doi":"10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-072720-042303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-072720-042303","url":null,"abstract":"This review focuses on properties related to the robustness and stability of Nash equilibria in games with a large number of players. Somewhat surprisingly, these equilibria become substantially more robust and stable as the number of players increases. We illustrate the relevant phenomena through a binary-action game with strategic substitutes, framed as a game of social isolation in a pandemic environment.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43847197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Theoretical Foundations of Relational Incentive Contracts 关系激励合同的理论基础
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-090820-110736
Joel Watson
{"title":"Theoretical Foundations of Relational Incentive Contracts","authors":"Joel Watson","doi":"10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-090820-110736","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-090820-110736","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes the emerging game-theoretic framework for modeling long-term contractual relationships with moral hazard. The framework combines self-enforcement and external enforcement, accommodating alternative assumptions regarding how actively the parties initially set and renegotiate the terms of their contract. A progression of theoretical components is reviewed, building from the recursive formulation of equilibrium continuation values in repeated games. A principal-agent setting serves as a running example.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48836854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Emmanuel Farhi, Economist Par Excellence 杰出经济学家伊曼纽尔·法希
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-032621-030422
J. Tirole
{"title":"Emmanuel Farhi, Economist Par Excellence","authors":"J. Tirole","doi":"10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-032621-030422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-032621-030422","url":null,"abstract":"Undoubtedly one of the best economists of his generation, Emmanuel Farhi transformed the theories of taxation, macroeconomics, and international finance. This essay describes his itinerary and his research style and attempts to pay tribute to his immense contribution to economics.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48928702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation Inequality: Measurement, Causes, and Policy Implications 通货膨胀不平等:测量、原因和政策含义
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-05-26 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-091520-082042
Xavier Jaravel
{"title":"Inflation Inequality: Measurement, Causes, and Policy Implications","authors":"Xavier Jaravel","doi":"10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-091520-082042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-091520-082042","url":null,"abstract":"Does inflation vary across the income distribution? This article reviews the growing literature on inflation inequality, describing recent advances and opportunities for further research in four areas. First, new price index theory facilitates the study of inflation inequality. Second, new data show that inflation rates decline with household income in the United States. Accurate measurement requires granular price and expenditure data because of aggregation bias. Third, new evidence quantifies the impacts of innovation and trade on inflation inequality. Contrary to common wisdom, empirical estimates show that the direction of innovation is a significant driver of inflation inequality in the United States, whereas trade has similar price effects across the income distribution. Fourth, inflation inequality and non-homotheticities have important policy implications. They transform cost-benefit analysis, optimal taxation, the effectiveness of stabilization policies, and our understanding of secular macroeconomic trends—including structural change, the decline in the labor share and interest rates, and labor market polarization.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46222560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 35
The Blossoming of Economic Epidemiology 经济流行病学的蓬勃发展
IF 5.6 2区 经济学
Annual Review of Economics Pub Date : 2021-05-24 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-082120-122900
David McAdams
{"title":"The Blossoming of Economic Epidemiology","authors":"David McAdams","doi":"10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-082120-122900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/ANNUREV-ECONOMICS-082120-122900","url":null,"abstract":"Infectious diseases, ideas, new products, and other infectants spread in epidemic fashion through social contact. The COVID-19 pandemic, the proliferation of fake news, and the rise of antimicrobial resistance have thrust economic epidemiology into the forefront of public policy debate and reinvigorated the field. Focusing for concreteness on disease-causing pathogens, this review provides a taxonomy of economic-epidemic models, emphasizing both the biology/immunology of the disease and the economics of the social context. An economic epidemic is one whose diffusion through the agent population is generated by agents’ endogenous behavior. I highlight properties of the equilibrium epidemic trajectory and discuss ways in which public health authorities can change the game for the better by ( a) imposing restrictions on agent activity to reduce the harm done during a viral outbreak and ( b) enabling diagnostic-informed interventions to slow or even reverse the rise of antibiotic resistance.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43243467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
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