{"title":"The Impact of Health Information and Communication Technology on Clinical Quality, Productivity, and Workers","authors":"Ari Bronsoler, J. Doyle, J. Van Reenen","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-080921-101909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080921-101909","url":null,"abstract":"The adoption of health information and communication technology (HICT) has surged over the past two decades. We survey the medical and economic literature on HICT adoption and its impact on clinical outcomes, productivity, and the health care workforce. We find that HICT improves clinical outcomes and lowers health care costs; however, ( a) the effects are modest so far, ( b) it takes time for these effects to materialize, and ( c ) there is much variation in the impact. More evidence on the causal effects of HICT on productivity is needed to improve our analytical understanding and to guide further adoption. There is little econometric work directly investigating the impact of HICT on labor market outcomes, but the existing literature suggests that there are no substantial negative effects on employment and earnings. Overall, although health care is in many ways exceptional, we are struck by the similarities of our conclusions to the wider findings on the relationship between productivity and information and communication technologies, which stress the importance of complementary factors (e.g., management and skills) in determining the impact of these new technologies. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 14 is August 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2022-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43294584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Managing retirement incomes","authors":"Rowena Crawford, J. Banks","doi":"10.1920/wp.ifs.2022.0522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/wp.ifs.2022.0522","url":null,"abstract":"In this article we discuss the state of the literature relating to the decumulation of retirement wealth and the management of retirement incomes. On the one hand, life-cycle models that allow for strong bequest motives and for the effects of medical expense risks have been shown to be able to rationalize retirees’ wealth, income, and consumption trajectories. On the other, studies of individual asset choices and portfolio decisions seem to suggest low levels of financial literacy and engagement as well as non-negligible consequences of age-related cognitive decline on financial decision making. We argue that future work should try to reconcile these two sets of conflicting findings into a coherent and holistic evidence base to inform policy, because issues concerning the management of retirement incomes, and insurance against different risks in retirement more generally, will become increasingly important for future cohorts of retirees. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 14 is August 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43646971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiaowei Xu, Thomas Wernham, T. Waters, R. Joyce, Jonathan Cribb, Monica Costa Dias, R. Blundell
{"title":"Inequality and the Covid crisis in the United Kingdom","authors":"Xiaowei Xu, Thomas Wernham, T. Waters, R. Joyce, Jonathan Cribb, Monica Costa Dias, R. Blundell","doi":"10.1920/wp.ifs.2022.0122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/wp.ifs.2022.0122","url":null,"abstract":"We review the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequalities in education, the labor market, household living standards, mental health, and wealth in the United Kingdom. The pandemic has pushed up inequalities on several dimensions. School closures, in particular, disrupted the learning of poorer children, leading to lower attainment. Mental health worsened for those groups (women and younger adults) who had poorer mental health pre-pandemic. Lockdowns and social distancing particularly reduced the ability of younger, lower-earning, and less educated people to work. However, job-support programs combined with the expanded welfare system meant that, if anything, disposable income inequality fell. Rising house prices have benefited people around the middle of the wealth distribution. In the longer term, lower work experience for the less educated and missed schooling could push up some inequalities. Increased rates of working from home seem likely to persist, which may increase some inequalities and decrease others. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 14 is August 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42847311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Econometric Model for Causal Policy Analysis.","authors":"James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-015456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-015456","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper discusses the econometric model of causal policy analysis and two alternative frameworks that are popular in statistics and computer science. By employing the alternative frameworks uncritically, economists ignore the substantial advantages of an econometric approach, resulting in less informative analyses of economic policy. We show that the econometric approach to causality enables economists to characterize and analyze a wider range of policy problems than alternative approaches.</p>","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":"14 1","pages":"893-923"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9894266/pdf/nihms-1856437.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9759050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Great Divide: Education, Despair, and Death.","authors":"A. Case, A. Deaton","doi":"10.3386/w29241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29241","url":null,"abstract":"Deaths of despair, morbidity and emotional distress continue to rise in the US, largely borne by those without a college degree, the majority of American adults, for many of whom the economy and society are no longer delivering. Concurrently, all-cause mortality in the US is diverging by education in a way not seen in other rich countries. We review the rising prevalence of pain, despair, and suicide among those without a BA. Pain and despair created a baseline demand for opioids, but the escalation of addiction came from pharma and its political enablers. We examine the \"politics of despair,\" how less-educated people have abandoned and been abandoned by the Democratic Party. While healthier states once voted Republican in presidential elections, now the less-healthy states do. We review deaths during COVID, finding mortality in 2020 replicated existing relative mortality differences between those with and without college degrees.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":"14 1","pages":"1-21"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47655257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regression Discontinuity Designs","authors":"M. D. Cattaneo, J. Escanciano","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-021409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-021409","url":null,"abstract":"The regression discontinuity (RD) design is one of the most widely used nonexperimental methods for causal inference and program evaluation. Over the last two decades, statistical and econometric methods for RD analysis have expanded and matured, and there is now a large number of methodological results for RD identification, estimation, inference, and validation. We offer a curated review of this methodological literature organized around the two most popular frameworks for the analysis and interpretation of RD designs: the continuity framework and the local randomization framework. For each framework, we discuss three main topics: ( a) designs and parameters, focusing on different types of RD settings and treatment effects of interest; ( b) estimation and inference, presenting the most popular methods based on local polynomial regression and methods for the analysis of experiments, as well as refinements, extensions, and alternatives; and ( c) validation and falsification, summarizing an array of mostly empirical approaches to support the validity of RD designs in practice.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42903292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy","authors":"Kristin J. Forbes","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-081020-051248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-081020-051248","url":null,"abstract":"Countries are making more active use of macroprudential tools than in the past with the goal of improving the resilience of their broader financial systems. A growing body of evidence suggests that these tools can accomplish specific domestic goals and should reduce a country's vulnerability to many domestic and international shocks. The evidence also suggests, however, that these policies are not an elixir. They will not insulate economies from volatility, and they generate leakages to the nonbank financial system and spillovers through international borrowing, lending, and other cross-border exposures. Some of these unintended consequences can mitigate the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and generate new vulnerabilities and risks. The COVID-19 crisis provides a lens to evaluate the effectiveness of current macroprudential regulations during a period of extreme market volatility and economic stress. The experience to date suggests that macroprudential tools provide some benefits and should remain a focus of macroeconomic policy, but with realistic expectations about what they can accomplish.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":"661 ","pages":"203-228"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138515129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation","authors":"Alp Simsek","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-092120-050543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-092120-050543","url":null,"abstract":"I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, speculation can generate overvaluation and speculative bubbles. Leverage can substantially inflate speculative bubbles, and leverage limits depend on perceived downside risks. Shifts in beliefs about downside tail scenarios can explain the emergence and the collapse of leveraged speculative bubbles. Speculative bubbles are related to rational bubbles, but they match better the empirical evidence on the predictability of asset returns. Even without short-selling constraints, speculation induces procyclical asset valuation. When speculation affects the price of aggregate assets, it also influences macroeconomic outcomes such as aggregate consumption, investment, and output. Speculation in the boom years reduces asset prices, aggregate demand, and output in the subsequent recession. Macroprudential policies that restrict speculation in the boom can improve macroeconomic stability and social welfare.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"335-369"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138515141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Uncertainty Spillovers for Markets and Policy","authors":"Lars Peter Hansen","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-082020-054645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-082020-054645","url":null,"abstract":"We live in a world filled with uncertainty. In this essay, I show that featuring this phenomenon more in economic analyses adds to our understanding of how financial markets work and how best to design prudent economic policy. This essay explores methods that allow for a broader conceptualization of uncertainty than is typical in economic investigations. These methods draw on insights from decision theory to engage in uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty quantification in economics differs from uncertainty quantification in most sciences because there is uncertainty from the perspective both of an external observer and of people and enterprises within the model. I illustrate these methods in two example economies in which the understanding of long-term growth is limited. One example looks at uncertainty ramifications for fluctuations in financial markets, and the other considers the prudent design of policy when the quantitative magnitude of climate change and its impact on economic opportunities are unknown.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":"52 1","pages":"371-396"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138519865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Systemic Risk in Financial Networks: A Survey","authors":"Matthew O. Jackson,Agathe Pernoud","doi":"10.1146/annurev-economics-083120-111540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-083120-111540","url":null,"abstract":"We provide an overview of the relationship between financial networks and systemic risk. We present a taxonomy of different types of systemic risk, differentiating between direct externalities between financial organizations (e.g., defaults, correlated portfolios, fire sales), and perceptions and feedback effects (e.g., bank runs, credit freezes). We also discuss optimal regulation and bailouts, measurements of systemic risk and financial centrality, choices by banks regarding their portfolios and partnerships, and the changing nature of financial networks.","PeriodicalId":47891,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Economics","volume":"21 1","pages":"171-202"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138519866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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