Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献_第6页

Bank lending policies and green transition 银行贷款政策与绿色转型

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.04.006

Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera , Germana Giombini , Giorgio Calcagnini

引用次数: 0

Gains or losses: Can grassland ecological compensation policy alleviate the decoupling of welfare from wealth? 得失：草原生态补偿政策能否缓解福利与财富的脱钩？

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.022

Hui Peng , Huanqin Ying , Xuerui Wang , Yaobin Lu , Shouyang Wang

{"title":"Gains or losses: Can grassland ecological compensation policy alleviate the decoupling of welfare from wealth?","authors":"Hui Peng , Huanqin Ying , Xuerui Wang , Yaobin Lu , Shouyang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Implementing the Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy (GECP) to address the decoupling of welfare from wealth is a crucial strategy for achieving sustainable development goals. However, how the GECP alleviates the decoupling trend remains underexplored. Using panel data from prefecture-level cities in Qinghai Province from 2011 to 2021, this study assesses the decoupling trend between welfare and wealth. Employing a Difference-in-Differences model, we delve into the GECP’s impact on the decoupling trend for the first time and analyze the underlying mechanisms. Our findings indicate that the GECP significantly alleviates the decoupling trend, with effects varying by natural, social, economic, and environmental characteristics. Furthermore, while the GECP alleviates the decoupling trend by promoting industrial structure optimization and reducing ecological footprint, it exacerbates this trend by increasing income inequality. This study provides policy insights to enhance the harmonious coexistence between humans and nature in China’s modernization and global sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 538-555"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analyzing the environmental and economic impact of carbon pricing policy based on an improved dynamic CGE model: Incorporating demographic characteristics of resident 基于改进的动态CGE模型的碳定价政策环境经济影响分析：考虑居民人口特征

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.021

Xiaoyu Li , Ye Yao , Zhenni Chen , Huibin Du

{"title":"Analyzing the environmental and economic impact of carbon pricing policy based on an improved dynamic CGE model: Incorporating demographic characteristics of resident","authors":"Xiaoyu Li , Ye Yao , Zhenni Chen , Huibin Du","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Narrowing income inequality while ensuring emission reduction efficiency is essential for achieving social equity and enhancing feasibility of carbon reduction policies. Using China's carbon pricing policy as a case study, this paper evaluates the environmental and economic impacts of various carbon pricing strategies under different carbon market coverage scopes and revenue recycling schemes. To conduct this analysis, we employ an improved dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that classifies residents based on five distinct categories, i.e. gender, age, education level, registration status, and income level. The findings reveal that while carbon pricing reduces emissions, it negatively impacts social welfare and energy-intensive industries. Moreover, it exacerbates income inequality across different age groups, education levels, and registration status, despite contributing to a reduction in gender income inequality. From an efficiency perspective, prioritizing the inclusion of the building materials industry in the carbon market maximizes emission reduction effectiveness. In contrast, to mitigate income inequality, the petrochemical industry should be the first to be integrated into the carbon market. Additionally, the study finds that expanding industry coverage within the carbon market enhances overall emission reduction efficiency. Under the optimal efficiency scenario, redistributing carbon revenue to rural, low-income female residents aged 20–59 with junior high or associate degrees proves to be the most effective strategy for reducing income inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 630-644"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

China’s impact on global commodity returns: A time-varying perspective 中国对全球大宗商品回报的影响：一个时变视角

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.018

Leqin Chen

引用次数: 0

Industrial robots and employment change in manufacturing: A decomposition analysis 工业机器人与制造业就业变化：一个分解分析

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.014

Andreas Eder , Wolfgang Koller , Bernhard Mahlberg

{"title":"Industrial robots and employment change in manufacturing: A decomposition analysis","authors":"Andreas Eder , Wolfgang Koller , Bernhard Mahlberg","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the contribution of industrial robots to employment change in manufacturing in a sample of 17 European countries and the USA over the period 2004 to 2019. We combine index decomposition analysis (IDA) and production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA). First, we use IDA to decompose employment change in the manufacturing industry into changes in (aggregate) manufacturing output, changes in the sectoral structure of the manufacturing industry, and changes in labour intensity (the inverse of labour productivity) which is a composite index of labour intensity change within each of the nine sub-sectors of total manufacturing. Second, we use PDA to further decompose labour intensity change to isolate the contribution of technical efficiency change, technological change, human capital change, change in non-robot capital intensity and change in robot capital intensity to employment change. In almost all of the countries considered, labour intensity is falling in entire manufacturing, exerting a dampening effect on employment. Robotisation contributes to this development by reducing labour intensities and employment in all countries and sub-sectors, though to varying degrees. Manufacturing output, in turn, grows in all countries except Greece, Spain and Italy, which increases employment and counteracts or in some countries even more than offsets the dampening effect of declining labour intensities. The structural change within manufacturing has an almost neutral effect in many countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 591-602"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The natural experiment of sanctioning a big economy: Who wins comparative advantages? 制裁一个大经济体的自然实验：谁赢得了比较优势？

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.020

Svetlana Golovanova, Ekaterina Krekhovets

引用次数: 0

Identifying critical EU carbon emissions risk through global value chains 通过全球价值链识别关键的欧盟碳排放风险

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.016

María-Ángeles Tobarra, Luis A. López, Ángela García-Alaminos, María-Ángeles Cadarso

{"title":"Identifying critical EU carbon emissions risk through global value chains","authors":"María-Ángeles Tobarra, Luis A. López, Ángela García-Alaminos, María-Ángeles Cadarso","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global value chains (GVC) are a key element in discussions about trade dependencies/bottlenecks and recent EU policy proposals. Similarly, carbon-emissions reduction measures feature predominantly in the design of EU strategies and require sector-detailed knowledge about where emissions are generated along GVC.</div><div>We use input-output techniques to identify carbon upstream and downstream sectoral hotspots within EU’s GVC and classify industries according to their exposure to changes in carbon-related and trade policy. We introduce a novel (climate-reshoring, CRI) index to measure carbon dependency and apply it to sectors currently targeted by EU policy for potential backshoring.</div><div>Our results show that sectors demanding and supplying high-carbon-emissions goods are different, implying that EU countries' differences in exposure depend on their industrial structure and trade patterns. Top downstream-imported emissions come from Russian refined petroleum products, while upstream-emissions EU hotspots include Electricity & gas, Basic metals from China and Russia, and Chinese Chemical and Other non-metallic products. Regarding CRI, the sectors most at risk by carbon dependencies and trade disruptions are Computer, electronic and optical equipment; Pharmaceutical; and Electrical equipment, all identified as critical by EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy. Core-EU economies and large Southern countries show the highest levels of CRI, mainly due to their dependence on critical foreign sectors rather than a high imported emissions risk index.</div><div>These findings highlight the need to consider sectoral-level carbon exposure in policy-making. Specific measures aimed at increasing the UE production in sectors and countries with high CRI would be beneficial both in terms of resilience and climate-change fight.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 660-676"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global value chains, structural change and growth dynamics in South Korea and Spain: Costs and benefits of globalization 韩国和西班牙的全球价值链、结构变化和增长动态：全球化的成本和收益

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.017

Keun Lee , Isabel Álvarez , Ángel Valarezo

{"title":"Global value chains, structural change and growth dynamics in South Korea and Spain: Costs and benefits of globalization","authors":"Keun Lee , Isabel Álvarez , Ángel Valarezo","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper revisits structural change, economic complexity, and Global Value Chain (GVC) participation in long-term growth dynamics of South Korea and Spain. The findings reveal both similarities and differences in their growth patterns, despite comparable economic size and income levels. First, we confirm the importance of capital formation, along with structural change at different intensities across the two countries. Second, we confirm the heterogeneous effects of economic complexity across two countries, which is because Korea exports high-tech and high complexity goods whereas Spain exports a mix of complex manufactured goods and low-complexity agricultural products. Third, and most importantly, we find a negative effect of forward GVC participation on economic growth, particularly in certain industries, highlighting the perils of globalization. Lastly, while some positive effects of backward GVC participation are observed in specific Spanish subsectors, negative effects on growth and structural change persist in Korea, underscoring the variability in growth outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 517-537"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stress-testing Inflation Exposure: Systemically significant prices and asymmetric shock propagation in the EU 压力测试通胀风险：欧盟具有系统重要性的价格和不对称冲击传播

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.010

Leonhard Ipsen , Armin Aminian , Jan Schulz

引用次数: 0

Determinants of export diversification in resource-dependent economies: The role of product relatedness and macroeconomic conditions 资源依赖型经济体出口多样化的决定因素：产品相关性和宏观经济条件的作用

IF 5 2区经济学

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.019

Beatriz Calzada Olvera , Danilo Spinola

{"title":"Determinants of export diversification in resource-dependent economies: The role of product relatedness and macroeconomic conditions","authors":"Beatriz Calzada Olvera , Danilo Spinola","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Export diversification is crucial for economic development, yet many resource-rich countries have struggled to achieve significant progress in expanding their export structure beyond extractive products. While the lack of capabilities is often highlighted as a primary barrier to diversification, the literature frequently underestimates the significant impact of macroeconomic conditions on export diversification potential. This study seeks to bridge the gap between the capabilities literature and macroeconomic factors, particularly in economies heavily dependent on extractive industries. In order to address our question, we initially introduce a novel measure of product relatedness, expanding on the framework developed by Nomaler and Verspagen (2022), and econometrically estimate its relationship with key macroeconomic variables such as international prices, exchange rates, energy and mineral dependency, and GDP per capita. The analysis spans over 5000 products across multiple countries from 1995 to 2019, with the objective of determining the relative significance of these factors in predicting diversification patterns and assessing how macroeconomic conditions either facilitate or impede diversification, particularly in non-extractive sectors. Our results indicate that while product relatedness is a strong predictor of diversification, particularly in extractive industries where path dependence is highly pronounced, macroeconomic factors play an even more decisive role. These factors not only determine the feasibility of diversification but also shape the conditions under which industries expand and evolve. Depending on their dynamics, macroeconomic variables can either reinforce existing patterns of specialisation or create new opportunities for diversification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 578-590"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144123234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0