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Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Digital transformation, employment change and the adaptation of regions in Germany
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.014
Uwe Neumann
{"title":"Digital transformation, employment change and the adaptation of regions in Germany","authors":"Uwe Neumann","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital change is often said to lead to large-scale job losses. Using data from administrative sources in Germany, this study examines the extent to which adaptation to digital change has affected regional employment growth and disparities over the past decade. The analysis confirms previous research according to which increases in productivity coincide with regional job growth rather than decline. Incorporating various indicators of digitalisation and automation into a model of industry-specific regional job growth shows that local labour markets with very different characteristics – regions with strong manufacturing clusters on the one hand and large cities on the other – have achieved employment growth despite high automation exposure. While the study highlights regional differentials with respect to the adaptation to technological change, less prosperous regions may face a much greater challenge in realising job creation potentials. The results argue against policy efforts aimed at “protecting” jobs from digitalisation and automation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 37-50"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Minsky in Peru-unveiling the hidden financial fragility at a sectoral level
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.013
Samuele Bibi , Pankaj Avinash Chandorkar
{"title":"Minsky in Peru-unveiling the hidden financial fragility at a sectoral level","authors":"Samuele Bibi ,&nbsp;Pankaj Avinash Chandorkar","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the beginning of the new millennium Peru has often been described as the Latin American economic miracle for its sustained achieved growth and stability results. However, recent works highlighted the potential hidden financial fragility that Peru might be subject to, especially at the institutional level, considering the non financial private sector. To investigate such a phenomenon in more details, we build Minskyan indicators to study a sample of 59 companies listed in the Peruvian stock market. Our analysis detects different financial fragility exposures of those firms at a sectoral level and it empirically studies the drivers of indebtedness growth at an aggregate level during the 2003–2023 period. In the context of the detected financial fragility, this paper serves as an academic ground in enquiring theoretical key questions and providing relevant highlights for the policymakers of Peru.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 77-88"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143345796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
More technology, more loans? How advanced digital technologies influence firms’ financing conditions
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.011
Raffaello Bronzini , Anna Giunta , Eleonora Pierucci , Marco Sforza
{"title":"More technology, more loans? How advanced digital technologies influence firms’ financing conditions","authors":"Raffaello Bronzini ,&nbsp;Anna Giunta ,&nbsp;Eleonora Pierucci ,&nbsp;Marco Sforza","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper investigates the effects of the adoption of advanced digital technologies (i.e., Industry 4.0) on firms’ credit conditions through a signaling effect. The empirical analysis exploits microdata from the Bank of Italy’s “Survey on Manufacturing and Service Firms” available for the period 2015–2019, integrated with balance sheet information provided by Cerved. We use a binary endogenous treatment effect model and IV estimation strategy to determine the average effect of digital technology adoption on firms’ financing variables. The results can be summarized as follows: (i) the adoption of digital technologies (DT) lowers the likelihood of being credit rationed; (ii) the adoption of DT is associated with a higher level of leverage but with a lower cost of debt; (iii) the increased firm’s debt is associated with a composition effect resulting in an expansion of bank debt and a reduction in financial debt. These results, which are robust to a number of checks, suggest that digital technology adoption improves firms’ financial conditions, with lower constraints and lower costs, and also influences the relationship between the firm and the financial institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"72 ","pages":"Pages 47-66"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143326161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Diverging paths: AI exposure and employment across European regions
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.010
Dario Guarascio , Jelena Reljic , Roman Stöllinger
{"title":"Diverging paths: AI exposure and employment across European regions","authors":"Dario Guarascio ,&nbsp;Jelena Reljic ,&nbsp;Roman Stöllinger","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and employment patterns in Europe. First, we provide a thorough mapping of European regions focusing on the structural factors—such as sectoral specialisation, R&amp;D capacity, productivity and workforce skills—that may shape diffusion as well as economic and employment effects of AI. To capture these differences, we conduct a cluster analysis which group EU regions in four distinct clusters: high-tech service and capital centres, advanced manufacturing core, southern and eastern periphery. We then discuss potential employment implications of AI in these regions, arguing that while regions with strong innovation systems may experience employment gains as AI complements existing capabilities and production systems, others are likely to face structural barriers that could eventually exacerbate regional disparities in the EU, with peripheral areas losing further ground.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 11-24"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The rise and fall of inflation in the Euro Area (2021-2024): A heterodox perspective
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.004
Vicente Ferreira , Alexandre Abreu , Francisco Louçã
{"title":"The rise and fall of inflation in the Euro Area (2021-2024): A heterodox perspective","authors":"Vicente Ferreira ,&nbsp;Alexandre Abreu ,&nbsp;Francisco Louçã","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the period of 2021–2024, inflation has resurged and then retreated in most industrialized countries. Economists were divided into two main camps: team transitory, which argued that inflationary pressures were primarily cost-push and would tend to fade away as supply disruptions eased, and team permanent, which viewed it as a predominantly demand-pull process and warned about the risks of persistent second-round effects associated with an overheated labor market. This paper covers this theoretical debate on the origins of inflation and contrasts it to the available empirical evidence for the Euro Area, laying out several inconsistencies in the New Keynesian argument proposed by team permanent. Since that was, nevertheless, the predominant interpretation among central bankers, including the ECB, this paper also discusses the impacts of monetary policy decisions informed by the New Keynesian view, arguing that there is good reason to believe that it has had regressive consequences in terms of the functional distribution of income as well as differentiated impacts across Euro Area core and periphery countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"72 ","pages":"Pages 103-110"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143326157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of green finance on energy transition and carbon emission targets: Exploring the double threshold and spatial spillover effects among the regions
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.012
Chonghui Zhang , Cong Wang , Huanhuan Jin , Mo Xu , Tomas Balezentis , Leonardo Agnusdei
{"title":"The impact of green finance on energy transition and carbon emission targets: Exploring the double threshold and spatial spillover effects among the regions","authors":"Chonghui Zhang ,&nbsp;Cong Wang ,&nbsp;Huanhuan Jin ,&nbsp;Mo Xu ,&nbsp;Tomas Balezentis ,&nbsp;Leonardo Agnusdei","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green finance, by adding environmental considerations into financial products, guides industries toward low-carbon transformation and quickens the decline of carbon emissions across society. However, existing studies fail to identify the spatial correlation effects and the driving mechanisms of their impact, so in order to further clarify the causal pathways of the impact of green finance on carbon emissions, this paper investigates the influence of green finance on carbon emissions through the application of the double threshold model and the spatial Durbin model. By drawing on provincial-level data from China covering 2012 to 2021, this paper uncovers regional heterogeneity in the influence of green finance on carbon emissions. Particularly, while green finance in the eastern and western regions substantially limits carbon emissions, it ironically fuels carbon emissions in the central region. Based on this finding, the double threshold model is used to investigate further the abrupt process of green finance on carbon emissions from “nonsignificant inhibition - significant promotion - significant inhibition.” In addition, this work verifies that green finance employs a spatial inhibitory influence on carbon emissions, where an improvement in the level of green finance in the vicinity controls carbon emissions within the region. Through mechanism testing, this paper recognizes the upgrade of the industrial structure in the region as an intermediary factor favorable to attaining carbon emission reduction. By supplying empirical evidence, this paper facilitates a more accurate assessment of the influence of green finance on carbon emissions and provides a quantitative basis for green finance policies to help China meet its dual carbon goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
IT liberalization, trade expansion, and firm innovation: Evidence from China
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.011
Chao Fang , Peng Wu , Xiaoyan Yu , Chao Zhang
{"title":"IT liberalization, trade expansion, and firm innovation: Evidence from China","authors":"Chao Fang ,&nbsp;Peng Wu ,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Yu ,&nbsp;Chao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trade liberalization is often a contentious policy for developing countries. This paper investigates how China successfully integrated into global IT production and fostered innovation through trade liberalization under the Information Technology Agreement. Empirical results indicate that the reduction in tariffs on IT products had an asymmetric impact on China's trade, significantly increasing imports of capital and intermediate goods while modestly boosting exports, primarily of consumer goods. Firms in the IT sector, as well as those in upstream and downstream sectors, have increased their R&amp;D intensity following the liberalization of IT products. Further analysis indicates that the growth in R&amp;D intensity stems from high-productivity firms, followed by medium-productivity firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 25-36"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Structural change in Morocco: Rethinking industrial policies
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.008
Wissal Sahel, Idriss El Abbassi
{"title":"Structural change in Morocco: Rethinking industrial policies","authors":"Wissal Sahel,&nbsp;Idriss El Abbassi","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article examines Morocco's structural transformation from 1960 to 2018, utilizing a longer time frame and a more detailed sectoral breakdown than previous studies. Our methodology combines the decomposition of labor productivity growth and structural decomposition analysis to assess the intensity and efficiency of sectoral shifts. Our findings indicate a significant increase in productivity from 2000 onward, primarily driven by within-sector productivity, unlike earlier decades where between-sector changes played a larger role. Since 2010, the manufacturing sector has emerged as the main driver of structural change. Additionally, both approaches highlight the overall slow pace of structural transformation in Morocco, predominantly due to the negative impact of foreign trade. In contrast, domestic demand and technological change have positively impacted sectoral growth. While sectors like automotive, aerospace, and service subsectors have shown growth potential, industries such as textiles, and agriculture remain vulnerable to external shocks and global competition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"72 ","pages":"Pages 412-426"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143326283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Structural change and its discontents
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.009
Marco Rodolfo Di Tommaso , Elena Prodi , Dante Di Matteo , Elisa Barbieri
{"title":"Structural change and its discontents","authors":"Marco Rodolfo Di Tommaso ,&nbsp;Elena Prodi ,&nbsp;Dante Di Matteo ,&nbsp;Elisa Barbieri","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the relationship between social discontent and labour market dynamics, particularly with respect to the creation and destruction of stable jobs. By bridging studies on discontent with the literature on structural dynamics, the paper conceives the former as a signal that some countries or regions are experiencing a trajectory of structural change characterized by economic deprivation and social inequality, rooted into limited access to secure and quality jobs. If not properly addressed by policymakers to achieve greater cohesion, this trajectory may lead to irreversible economic decline. Focusing on Italy, results show that jobs destruction amplifies support for anti-elite parties while the creation of secure jobs mitigates social discontent. Policy implications highlight the need for labour market, welfare and education measures fostering structural change trajectories that are sustainable, i.e., where the interests of both vulnerable and well-off socio-economic groups are reconciled in the definition of societal policy goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"72 ","pages":"Pages 438-455"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143326276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Roof or real estate? An agent-based model of housing affordability in The Netherlands
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.014
Ruben Tarne, Dirk Bezemer
{"title":"Roof or real estate? An agent-based model of housing affordability in The Netherlands","authors":"Ruben Tarne,&nbsp;Dirk Bezemer","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Housing shortages in monetary economies are defined by affordability, which is the balance between income, savings and borrowing to access housing on one hand and purchase prices and rents, providing access, on the other. Yet analysis often confuses (monetary) affordability with (real) supply shortages. In a heterogeneous-agent housing market model calibrated on survey data, we analyse the housing affordability crisis in the Netherlands since around 2015. We find trade-offs between shocks to the housing supply, to interest rates and to banks’ loan-to-value norms by estimating their effects on house prices. Financial and monetary policies are alternatives to supply responses in reducing cyclical house price peaks and average house prices and increasing affordability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"72 ","pages":"Pages 163-178"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143357452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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