The natural experiment of sanctioning a big economy: Who wins comparative advantages?

This paper is aimed at quantitatively assessing the short-run impact of the recent sanctions against Russia on the position of the target, sanctioning and sanctions-neutral states in world trade. We analyze data on yearly trade flows by countries and 2-digit HS product groups. Statistical and econometrics methods are applied. Alternative comparative advantage indicators are used to measure changes in specialization and competitiveness of the three groups of countries. We get empirical evidence that confirms that both sides of the conflict are affected by the trade restrictions with a stronger negative impact on the target country, at least in the analyzed short run period. Some findings let us conclude that structural changes in production and consumption were an important factor that supported the economy under sanctions. Sanctioning states also seem to lose their export positions and/or strengthen their import dependence more than neutral economies of the same size.