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Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Debt by rules: Recrafting impact of infrastructure investments and business cycles on debt sustainability
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.009
Olatunji A. Shobande , Lawrence Ogbeifun
{"title":"Debt by rules: Recrafting impact of infrastructure investments and business cycles on debt sustainability","authors":"Olatunji A. Shobande ,&nbsp;Lawrence Ogbeifun","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For decades, economists have advocated for growth initiatives, including the debt-growth hypothesis, which suggests that leveraging debt for infrastructure investments can spur growth. However, past generations often supported deficit spending to finance wars, social programs, and economic stimuli without fully considering the long-term consequences. While not entirely to blame, their policy choices, consumption habits, and resistance to necessary reforms have significantly contributed to the current debt crisis. This has resulted in future generations facing higher taxes, reduced public investment, economic instability, and inequity. This paper offers three critical contributions. First, it explores how infrastructure investments and business cycles influence debt sustainability within the context of fiscal rules. Second, it develops and estimates a robust macroeconomic model to evaluate the fundamental drivers of debt sustainability using advanced dynamic analysis. Third, it investigates asymmetric effects through Quantile-Quantile regression. The findings reveal that the relationship between infrastructure investment, business cycles, and debt sustainability varies across continents. Moreover, past debt sustainability emerges as a powerful and statistically significant predictor of current debt stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 282-306"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does smart city construction exacerbate capital misallocation? Spatial spillovers, digital transformation, and robotics application
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.008
Haotian Luo
{"title":"Does smart city construction exacerbate capital misallocation? Spatial spillovers, digital transformation, and robotics application","authors":"Haotian Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to examine the impact of Smart City Construction on capital misallocation in China from a spatial perspective. The findings reveal that Smart City Construction generates significant negative spatial spillover effects on capital misallocation in neighboring cities, with these effects gradually diminishing beyond a 300-kilometer radius. The spillover effects are particularly pronounced in eastern regions, medium-sized cities, and cities with higher administrative status. Furthermore, at the firm level, Smart City Construction tends to exacerbate internal financial misallocation, yet digital transformation and robotics application can partially alleviate these inefficiencies. However, these technological interventions may intensify inter-firm capital misallocation. These findings suggest a dual effect of Smart City Construction and associated technological advancements: while they enhance internal capital efficiency, they may disrupt broader regional capital allocation patterns. Therefore, this study underscores the need to balance internal optimization with external regional impacts, promoting coordinated and sustainable regional development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 328-344"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143360361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing the earned income tax credit and universal basic income in a heterogeneous agent model
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.002
Ryo Hasumi , Tetsuaki Takano
{"title":"Comparing the earned income tax credit and universal basic income in a heterogeneous agent model","authors":"Ryo Hasumi ,&nbsp;Tetsuaki Takano","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study quantitatively evaluates two redistributive policies: the earned income tax credit (EITC) and universal basic income (UBI). We construct a continuous time heterogeneous agent model calibrated to the US economy and compare the expansion of the EITC with the introduction of UBI. Both policy changes encourage low-income households’ labor force participation and improve social welfare measured by consumption equivalents. Meanwhile, output declines as the policies discourage precautionary savings and reduce capital stock. Furthermore, they may widen wealth inequality because redistribution lowers income dispersion, and the marginal increase in the value of holding additional assets flattens out, as do consumption and savings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 238-247"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating climate change impacts into power system planning for achieving carbon neutrality in China
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.003
Baojun Tang , Yun Wu , Biying Yu , Robert Harmsen , Jing Hu , Wina Crijns-Graus , Yi-Ming Wei
{"title":"Integrating climate change impacts into power system planning for achieving carbon neutrality in China","authors":"Baojun Tang ,&nbsp;Yun Wu ,&nbsp;Biying Yu ,&nbsp;Robert Harmsen ,&nbsp;Jing Hu ,&nbsp;Wina Crijns-Graus ,&nbsp;Yi-Ming Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the oversight in the climate change impacts on power system planning for carbon neutrality. We enhance the China's Climate Change Integrated Assessment/National Energy Technology (C<sup>3</sup>IAM/NET) Power model with meteorological big data, and model climate change impacts on power demand and supply. The regional power technology pathways and dispatching strategies under the RCP2.6 scenario is re-optimized by considering evolving weather patterns. Findings reveal a necessity for expanding renewable power to 9.8 TW by 2060, with wind and solar power contributing 4.2 TW and 5.0 TW, respectively, and storage capacity to 0.9 TW. 56 % of wind power, 42 % of solar power, and 48 % of storage concentrate in the North and Northwest, respectively. The Northwest needs to export up to 395 GWh of power per hour. Coping with climate fluctuations, the annual system cost by 2060 is estimated at 4.1 trillion RMB, an 8 % rise compared to the scenario without further climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 248-261"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labour, unions and R&D in Italian firms
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.004
Armanda Cetrulo , Valeria Cirillo , Fabio Landini
{"title":"Labour, unions and R&D in Italian firms","authors":"Armanda Cetrulo ,&nbsp;Valeria Cirillo ,&nbsp;Fabio Landini","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How and to what extent does organized labour contribute to shaping firms’ competitive strategies by fostering innovation and investments in R&amp;D? Drawing on insights from evolutionary theories and industrial relations studies, this paper empirically investigates how firm-level collective bargaining impacts firms’ investments in intangible assets, including R&amp;D. The paper underlines how in the workplace context, where workers and managers pursue conflicting interests, the presence of a strong trade union able to bargain can empower workers’ voice and persuade management to invest in innovation related assets rather than compete through cost cutting strategies. We leverage a comprehensive and representative survey of Italian non-agricultural companies conducted by the National Institute for Public Policy Analysis to test these predictions. Baseline estimates indicate that firm-level bargaining, particularly in highly unionized firms, is linked to investments in R&amp;D and other intangibles. Further analysis suggests that work organization clauses are key drivers of this positive relationship.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 262-281"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does the “Braking” of China's land finance facilitate economic “Shift Gears”? Evidence from investment decisions of real firms
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.006
Wenbo Shao, Yufan Chen, Huan Zhu
{"title":"Does the “Braking” of China's land finance facilitate economic “Shift Gears”? Evidence from investment decisions of real firms","authors":"Wenbo Shao,&nbsp;Yufan Chen,&nbsp;Huan Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2015, China introduced the New Budget Law and Document No.43, which were designed to regulate land finance. Utilizing a difference-in-differences (DID) model, this study examines how these land finance regulations influence the investment decisions of real firms in China. The findings reveal that land finance regulations stimulate increased investments by real firms. Moreover, these regulations enhance firms' investments in production upgrading by easing financing constraints, and heighten risk awareness, ultimately driving investments in R&amp;D. Cross-sectional analyses also reveal that these effects are particularly pronounced in regions with low levels of financial development and fiscal transparency. Additionally, they are more pronounced in industries that are capital-intensive and technology-intensive, as well as among non-state-owned, small firms, firms with high financing constraints and government subsidies. Therefore, China's targeted governance of land finance effectively fosters the advancement of real firms, aligning with the objective of achieving \"high-quality development\".</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 223-237"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143360359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investment accelerations
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.007
Jakob de Haan , Kersten Stamm , Shu Yu
{"title":"Investment accelerations","authors":"Jakob de Haan ,&nbsp;Kersten Stamm ,&nbsp;Shu Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Following earlier studies on accelerations of output and the capital stock growth, we propose an adjusted method to identify accelerations in investment. The method ensures that the identified episodes are characterized by sustained increases in per capita investment growth to a relatively high rate. We identify 192 investment accelerations in 93 economies (34 advanced economies and 59 emerging and developing economies) over 1950–2022. Output growth is about 2 percentage points higher during investment accelerations than in other years. Our evidence also suggests that economic policy reform and institutional quality are positively associated with the likelihood that such an acceleration occurs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 196-210"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Emergence of chaotic dynamics in the Goodwin model with disequilibrium in the goods market
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.005
Giovanni Bella
{"title":"Emergence of chaotic dynamics in the Goodwin model with disequilibrium in the goods market","authors":"Giovanni Bella","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the conditions for the emergence of chaotic dynamics in the Goodwin economy studied in Sordi and Vercelli (2014), where the economic fluctuations occur in the presence of a class struggle in the labor force while assuming disequilibrium in the produced goods market. Applying the Shilnikov theorem, we derive a parametric configuration leading to a chaotic region that sets the economy on an undesired indeterminate equilibrium path. We also apply a standard stabilizing algorithm to determine a solution for ending the chaos. Implications of this study are noteworthy, as may produce a more powerful instrument to detect the emergence of unregular (chaotic) cycles and the possible path-dependence of equilibrium trajectories from the initial endowments of an economy, which remain instead hidden when the standard Hopf bifurcation theorem is uniquely applied.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 170-180"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does corruption really matter for the structure of public expenditures?
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.019
Itchoko Motande Mwa Ndjokou Mondjeli , Martin Ambassa
{"title":"Does corruption really matter for the structure of public expenditures?","authors":"Itchoko Motande Mwa Ndjokou Mondjeli ,&nbsp;Martin Ambassa","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Corruption significantly distorts the allocation of public expenditures, yet systematic evidence on its effects on current and capital expenditures is limited. This study analyzes panel data from 45 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1996 to 2022. Using fixed effects and instrumental variables models, we find that corruption reduces capital expenditures while increasing current expenditures. Additionally, mediation analysis reveals that income inequality, conflict, and the rule of law are key channels through which corruption impacts public expenditure structures in SSA. We recommend enhancing accountability and transparency in public expenditures and prioritizing good governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 181-195"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143360360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Costs and CO2 emissions of technological transformation in China's power industry: The impact of market regulation and assistive technologies
IF 5 2区 经济学
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.001
Yingnan Zhang , Guanqi Wu , Bin Zhang
{"title":"Costs and CO2 emissions of technological transformation in China's power industry: The impact of market regulation and assistive technologies","authors":"Yingnan Zhang ,&nbsp;Guanqi Wu ,&nbsp;Bin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the transformation pathways of China's power industry from 2020 to 2060 using the \"Dynamic System and Low Emissions Analysis Platform\" (SD-LEAP) model. The analysis assumes market regulation mechanisms include the carbon emission trading (CET) and the tradable green certificate (TGC) market, while assistive technologies encompass Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) and energy storage. The study evaluates costs and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions under these influences. Our findings indicate higher CET prices reduce fossil and biomass energy capacity, while higher TGC prices boost clean energy capacity. CCUS implementation and increased CET prices lower fossil power generation costs. Conversely, higher TGC prices and advances in energy storage raise renewable energy capacity and costs by 2060. Combined market regulations and assistive technologies are projected to reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 509.3 to 1466.3 million tons by 2060, with policy recommendations for supporting China's power system development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 211-222"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143345740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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