巴西的国际成本推动型通货膨胀和货币政策

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.003

Guilherme Spinato Morlin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

汇率和商品价格通常被认为是巴西通货膨胀的主要驱动因素。然而，对中间投入的国际成本冲击的研究较少。我们估计了一个包含外国生产者价格指数的结构性VAR模型，测量了1999-2020年期间巴西贸易伙伴的成本变化。估计数据显示，国外PPI对巴西消费者价格指数（cpi）产生了积极影响，为国内通胀提供了相关解释。与实证文献一致，我们的结果强调汇率是CPI的主要决定因素。我们的研究结果强调了与外部部门（汇率、国外PPI和商品价格）相关的冲击在解释巴西通胀方面的主导地位。由于国际冲击和国外PPI超出了中央银行的直接影响，我们的研究结果证实，巴西的通货膨胀目制制主要依赖于利率变化后的汇率效应。

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International cost-push inflation and monetary policy in Brazil

Exchange rate and commodity prices are often considered primary drivers of inflation in Brazil. However, international cost shocks from intermediate inputs are less studied. We estimate a Structural VAR model including a Foreign Producer Price Index, measuring cost changes of Brazilian trade partners in the period 1999–2020. Estimates show a positive effect of the Foreign PPI on the Brazilian Consumer Price Index, providing a relevant explanation for domestic inflation. Consistently with the empirical literature, our results underscore the Exchange Rate as the main determinant of the CPI. Our findings highlight the predominance of shocks related to the external sector (Exchange Rate, Foreign PPI, and Commodity Prices) in explaining inflation in Brazil. Since the international shocks and Foreign PPI are beyond the direct influence of the Central Bank, our results confirm that the inflation targeting regime in Brazil relied mainly on the exchange rate effect following changes in the interest rate.

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来源期刊

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.60

自引率

4.90%

发文量

159

期刊介绍： Structural Change and Economic Dynamics publishes articles about theoretical, applied and methodological aspects of structural change in economic systems. The journal publishes work analysing dynamics and structural breaks in economic, technological, behavioural and institutional patterns.