Population Research and Policy Review最新文献

{"title":"Perceptions of the Future and Pregnancy Avoidance in the U.S.","authors":"Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Anna Belykh, Wendy Manning, Monica Longmore, Peggy Giordano, Sara Roza","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09962-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-025-09962-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite low U.S. fertility rates since the Great Recession, two-child norms remain pervasive, suggesting individuals are unable to achieve their goals. To understand what may be driving the apparent mismatch between goals and behavior, we focus on pregnancy avoidance, as individuals may be deciding against births in the short term rather than deciding not to have any, or any more, children. Further, we incorporate subjective evaluations of the future related to economic and relational factors as well as objective socioeconomic indicators, drawing from the Narratives of the Future framework and Easterlin's theory about expected standard of living. We use data from the 2018-2020 wave of the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (<i>N</i> = 880), a population-based dataset, to examine short-term pregnancy avoidance among adults aged 29-36. We find that higher levels of personal economic pessimism and concerns about having a good relationship in the future are associated with greater importance of avoiding a pregnancy in the short term, even when controlling for objective characteristics such as economic hardship, relationship status, and other sociodemographic covariates. The results highlight the need to incorporate both subjective and objective statuses in research on fertility decision-making, and the implications of these findings point to short-term pregnancy avoidance and fertility postponement as a potential mechanism underlying contemporary low birth rates in the U.S.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-025-09962-2.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 3","pages":"36"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12152052/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144286831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Millennials as a Demographic Bridge to Diversity? Segregation and Diversity of Young Adult Neighborhoods.","authors":"Noli Brazil, Jennifer Candipan","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09954-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-025-09954-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As young adults, the Millennial generation emerged as the largest and most racially and ethnically diverse generation in U.S. history. These unique demographic characteristics, along with more progressive self-reported views on racial and ethnic issues, prompted some to label this generation as a demographic bridge to America's diverse future. This article examines whether these unique characteristics translate into greater neighborhood racial diversity and integration. Specifically, this study sets out to answer whether the neighborhoods where Millennial young adults live are more racially and ethnically diverse and situated in less segregated metropolitan areas than those where young adults from prior generations resided. Using 1990-2020 Census data, we find that young adult Millennials are living in less segregated neighborhoods than their counterparts from previous generations. This pattern holds whether examining the segregation of White young adults from the total population or restricting the analysis to segregation solely among young adults. We further find that a greater presence of White young adult Millennials is positively associated with neighborhood diversity. However, our decomposition analysis, which disaggregates segregation to the agegroup level, suggests that increased uneven sorting among Late Millennial young adults is also driving racial imbalances within neighborhoods among younger and older age groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 3","pages":"32"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12069491/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144081024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geographic Realities of Abortion Access in Texas: Exploring the Heterogeneous Effects of Texas Senate Bill 8 with Mobile Phone Data.","authors":"Jessica Miller, Guangqing Chi","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09948-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-025-09948-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Restrictive abortion policies have generated reductions in abortion access, increased travel distance to abortion clinics as a result of clinic closures, and produced declines in maternal health outcomes. This study explores the effects of Texas Senate Bill 8 (SB8), the most restrictive bill prior to the overturning of <i>Roe v. Wade</i>, on abortion access in Texas. We used a difference-in-differences approach to explore the heterogeneous effects of SB8 on abortion access for communities of varying socioeconomic statuses and travel distances using 16 months of SafeGraph Inc. mobile phone pattern data for 21 Texas and four Oklahoma abortion clinics between January 1, 2021, and April 30, 2022. Implementation of SB8 was associated with 34% fewer abortion clinic visits in Texas than in Oklahoma. The effects of SB8 on access to abortion care across state borders had a disproportionately greater impact on women in low-income communities. This study provides further evidence of the discriminatory impacts of SB8 in Texas.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-025-09948-0.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 3","pages":"29"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12053199/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144002791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of Despair in Predicting Self-Destructive Behaviors.","authors":"Lauren Gaydosh, Audrey Kelly, Iliya Gutin, Lilly Shanahan, Jennifer Godwin, Kathleen Mullan Harris, William Copeland","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09952-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-025-09952-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Working age (25-64) mortality in the US has been increasing for decades, driven in part by rising deaths due to drug overdose, as well as increases in suicide and alcohol-related mortality. These deaths have been hypothesized by some to be due to despair, but this has rarely been empirically tested. For despair to explain mortality due to alcohol-related liver disease, suicide, and drug overdose, it must first predict the behaviors that lead to such causes of death. To that end, we aim to answer two research questions. First, does despair predict the behaviors that are antecedent to the \"deaths of despair\"? Second, what measures and domains of despair are most important? We use data from over 6000 individuals at five waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and apply supervised machine learning to assess the role of despair in predicting self-destructive behaviors associated with these causes of death. Comparing predictive performance within each outcome using measures of despair to benchmark models of clinical and prior behavioral predictors, we evaluate the added predictive value of despair above and beyond established risk factors. We find that despair underperforms compared to clinical risk factors for suicidal ideation and heavy drinking, but over performs compared to clinical risk factors and prior behaviors for illegal drug use and prescription drug misuse. We also compare model performance and feature importance across outcomes; our ability to predict thoughts of suicide, drug abuse and misuse, and heavy drinking differs depending on the behavior, and the relative importance of different indicators of despair varies across outcomes as well. Our findings suggest that the self-destructive behaviors are distinct and the pathways from despair to self-destructive behavior varied. The results draw into question the relevance of despair as a unifying framework for understanding the current crisis in midlife health and mortality.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 3","pages":"33"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12075290/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144081318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Parenthood and Women's Subjective Well-being in a Low-income, High-fertility Context: A Case Study from Rural Gaza Province, Mozambique.","authors":"Sarah R Hayford, Luca Badolato, Victor Agadjanian","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09978-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-025-09978-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In rural high-fertility settings where people depend on subsistence agriculture, children are expected to provide material support to their parents in later life, with implications for physical health and material well-being of parents. Substantial research has examined these material consequences. Fewer studies have examined the implications of parenthood for subjective well-being in these contexts, in contrast to a larger body of research in low-fertility contexts. The existing studies of parenthood and subjective well-being in high-fertility contexts suggest that this relationship depends on parents' gender and age, but do not distinguish between the impact of parent life stage and the impact of child age and other child characteristics. In this study, we draw on data from a population-based survey of ever-married women in rural Gaza Province, Mozambique, to show how mid-life women's subjective well-being, measured as life satisfaction, is related to the number, age, and residential status of children. We also investigate whether the association between children's characteristics and mother's life satisfaction is mediated by other domains related to anticipated returns to childbearing, such as household economic conditions and mother's physical and mental health. Results show that having young children in the household is negatively associated with life satisfaction, while having older children living outside the country is positively associated with life satisfaction. These associations are not fully explained by potential mechanisms such as economic conditions. We reflect on the implications of these findings in a context of changing livelihood strategies.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-025-09978-8.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 6","pages":"57"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12578741/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145432794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variation Between LGBT Estimates and State Policy Context.","authors":"Lee A Brady, Christopher A Julian, Wendy D Manning","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09938-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-025-09938-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>State-level social policy and LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender) population concentration are key measures that are often used as indicators reflecting geographic social climate. Still, research has yet to investigate how they may be interrelated, including the degree to which the LGBT population are subject to certain policies. Using population-based experimental data from the Household Pulse Survey and policy measures from the Movement Advancement Project, we compared measures of state-level policy and concentration of the LGBT population for 2022. After calculating the correlation between these two constructs, the authors identified state-level variation in these measures for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC. With a correlation of 0.58, the findings revealed variation at the state level and indicated that LGBT population concentration and state-level LGBT policy do not necessarily reflect synonymous social phenomena and constitute distinct but complementary measures for use in constructing indices of structural heterosexism and social climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 1","pages":"11"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11861240/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143524990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evidence of Decreasing Prenatal Sex-Selection Practice in a Context of Liberal Abortion Rights.","authors":"Sylvie Dubuc","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09974-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-025-09974-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Son preference and prenatal sex-selection against females (PSS) among British Asian communities, raised considerable media attention, leading to parliamentary debates on abortion laws in Britain in 2015. PSS among India-born mothers in the 1990s was indirectly evidenced in past UK study by analysing sex-ratios at birth. However, we lack reliable quantitative evidence to document the practice in Britain since 2005 and regulations remained unchanged, offering a unique opportunity to test the need (or not) for abortion regulation to curtail PSS practice. Using annual sex ratio at birth counts from 1969 to 2018 and applying novel indicators, I found that sex-selection prevalence among India-born mothers is reduced in recent years, from its peak at about 4% in the 1990-2005 period. This decline is independent of specific legislation on sex-selective abortion and suggests a weakening of son preference. A reduction in prenatal sex-selection prevalence in Britain, shows that curbing the practice does not request stricter (sex-selection) abortion law. The findings support policy approaches addressing root-causes of gender preference to reduce PSS, while preserving current abortion rights.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-025-09974-y.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 6","pages":"55"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12549414/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145379292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sex Differences in U.S. Adolescent and Young Adult Mortality.","authors":"Elizabeth M Lawrence, Richard G Rogers, Robert A Hummer","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09916-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-024-09916-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>U.S. females live longer than males due to a range of social, psychological, behavioral, and health factors. Prior research has underscored unhealthy behaviors as particularly risky for males and lower socioeconomic status as a risk factor for females in shaping sex differences in adult mortality. But this research has largely examined mortality during mid- and older-adulthood, with most deaths occurring at older ages. Our study focuses on sex differences in mortality among a cohort of U.S. adolescents followed into adulthood, ages 12-46 (N=18,921). We employ Cox proportional hazard models and data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), which was recently linked to mortality records through December of 2021. The hazard of dying is much greater (HR=1.69; p<.001) for male compared to female adolescents and young adults, with larger disparities for external compared to internal causes of death. Sex differences in mortality are reduced but persist when controlling for childhood experiences, health behaviors, risky behaviors, and social ties. The relatively poor mental and physical health of females suppresses the differences; that is, sex differences in mortality would be even larger were it not for the poorer mental and physical health of young females compared with males. The findings point to risk factors that if improved could reduce mortality for both U.S. males and females, while reducing sex differences in mortality among younger adults. Such improvements could increase life expectancy of the U.S. population and reduce mortality and sex differences at older ages.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"43 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12551678/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145379371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro-Level Conditions Matter?","authors":"Zsolt Spéder, Lajos Bálint","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09913-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09913-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This is the first large-scale comparative study to search for macro-level determinants of the realization of short-term fertility intentions across European countries. Using the unique follow-up feature of the Generations and Gender Survey and adopting rigorous definitions of intentions and outcomes, it reports on the level of fulfilment and finds clear heterogeneity across European countries. Using a multilevel, multivariate approach, it examines the nature of macro-level factors that may explain differences in the realization of fertility intentions. Based on our analysis, we conclude that labour market stability (as measured by fluctuations in the unemployment rate), price stability, heavy welfare state involvement, and the dominance of certain attitudinal conditions all support the greater realization of short-term fertility intentions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142249166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perceived Spousal Concordance on Desired Family Size and Birth Intendedness Among Second and Higher-Order Births in Pakistan","authors":"Saima Bashir, Karen Benjamin Guzzo","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09914-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09914-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Regardless of intentions to stop or space childbearing, women in many countries experience unintended fertility (having more children than desired or having children when they do not want to do so). In Pakistan, around one-fifth of all pregnancies are unintended, which can reflect limited reproductive autonomy. Using the Pakistan Demographic Health Surveys of 1990–1991 and 2017–2018, we examine whether perceived spousal concordance on desired family size and women’s education influence how women characterize the intendedness of second and higher-order births. Compared to women with perceived concordance, women who perceive their husbands have a higher desired family size are less likely to characterize a recent birth as unwanted than intended, and women who are unaware of their husbands’ desired family size are also less likely to characterize births as mistimed or unwanted. The relative risk of reporting an unwanted birth decreased across all categories of perceived spousal concordance between 1990–1991 and 2017–2018 except for women who reported that their husbands want fewer children than them. Compared to women with no formal education, women with a primary or secondary education are more likely to have mistimed than intended or unwanted fertility, and this link has not changed significantly over time. The results suggest all women continue to face challenges in implementing preferences about birth timing and spacing for second and higher-order births. Although better-educated women do not appear to face issues in exerting stopping preferences, they appear to have greater difficulty exerting timing preferences. This paper extends research on the fertility transition in Pakistan, and continued work is needed to understand why rising levels of education among women are not translating into fewer mistimed births.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142180193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}