Population Research and Policy Review最新文献

{"title":"From the Rainbow to the Sunset: Anticipated Availability of Informal Care for Older Sexual Minorities in the United States.","authors":"Kent Jason Cheng","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-10008-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-10008-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Anticipatory support-defined as the perceived availability of future care-functions as a psychological safety net that promotes mental well-being and is predictive of actual support received. Yet, little is known about how it varies by sexual identity. Using data of older adults without current ADL limitations from the 2022 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (n = 11,828), I conducted descriptive analyses, modified Poisson regressions, and pairwise comparisons of predicted probabilities of anticipated support by sexual identity. While there is no strong evidence of sexual identity disparities in the overall availability of future ADL support, the sources of such support varied by sexual identity. Among those with at least one child, the probability of lesbian/gay individuals counting on children/grandchildren were about 27 percentage points lower than that of heterosexual individuals. Additionally, the predicted probability of anticipating support from non-kin or someone else outside of a spouse, descendants, or other relatives was about 10 percentage points higher for lesbian/gay older adults compared to their heterosexual counterparts. These findings underscore both the vulnerability and resilience of sexual minority older adults-who may be less able to rely on kin-based care due to strained or absent family ties, yet more likely to turn to chosen family networks for future support. As formal care systems become increasingly strained, future research is needed to understand how chosen families function as caregiving structures and what barriers sexual minorities face in accessing both formal and informal long-term care.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13455151/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148707969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adolescent Migration Goals: An Application of the Aspirations-capabilities Framework.","authors":"Melissa Alcaraz, Erick Axxe, Jennifer E Glick","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-09993-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-09993-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Migration often requires significant monetary and physiological resources. Drawing on the aspirations-capabilities framework, we ask whether these resources are also important in the formation of adolescents' own migration goals and aspirations. Access to resources could be a means for young people to form ambitions to migrate because they expect to have the capability to follow through on these goals. Resources could also allow youth to withstand pressures to migrate so that those with fewer resources face greater needs and are the most likely to form migration aspirations. Using data from the Family Migration and Early Life Outcomes (FAMELO) project, we assess three indicators of the capability to migrate - health, education, and household resources - and the permanent migration aspirations among adolescents in three distinct migration contexts: Jalisco, Mexico; Gaza province, Mozambique; and Chitwan Valley, Nepal. In general, those with greater capability to migrate have higher migration aspirations, but this varies across contexts. Higher educational aspirations and household wealth are less predictive of migration aspirations in Mozambique (i.e., the lowest resourced setting) whereas higher educational aspirations are positively associated with adolescents' desire to permanently settle outside of their home communities - internationally or internally - in the Mexico and Nepal contexts. Self-rated health is not significantly associated with permanent migration aspirations in any of the study contexts. Household resources are most predictive of aspirations to move internationally rather than internally or remaining in the home community. Collectively, these results suggest important variations in the way migration becomes incorporated into adolescents' life goals.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13089907/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147724158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Brief Report: State Policy Contexts and Disability Risks Among Midlife Working-Age Latino Adults in the U.S.: Variation by Nativity and Citizenship Status.","authors":"Marc A Garcia, Blakelee R Kemp, Catherine García, Courtney E Boen, Rogelio Sáenz","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-10022-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-10022-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Disability risks among midlife Latino adults in the United States are strongly patterned along axes of stratification such as nativity and citizenship status. Another increasingly salient axis of inequality in disability risk is geographic context, such as U.S. state political environments. While prior research highlights the importance of specific state policies, such as Medicaid, in shaping health-related outcomes, few studies have examined how broader policy contexts and ideologies, such as policy liberalism, influence disability risk, particularly among Latino adults. This study combines data from the 2008-2019 American Community Survey (ACS) with state-level measures of overall, economic, and social policy liberalism to examine how these dimensions of policy context influence disability risks among a diverse sample of midlife working-age Latino adults ([Formula: see text] = 1,103,993). Using logistic regression models, we evaluate the associations between state policy liberalism (overall, economic, and social domains) and disability and assess differences by nativity and citizenship status. Results indicate that greater overall and economic policy liberalism were associated with lower probabilities of disability among midlife Latino adults. The magnitude of this association varied by nativity and citizenship, with U.S.-born Latino adults experiencing greater declines in disability across more liberal policy contexts compared to foreign-born Latino adults. Additionally, compared to the naturalized and non-citizens, citizens experienced greater declines in disability across more liberal policy contexts. These results suggest that state policy contexts that promote and protect social and economic supports, such as improving access to labor protections, can reduce the burden of disability, particularly among U.S.-born and citizen Latino adults.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-026-10022-6.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 4","pages":"38"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13290800/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148333397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Women's Reproductive Health Conditions and Fertility Goals.","authors":"Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Kathleen Broussard","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-09996-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-09996-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>There is a large body of research examining women's fertility decision-making. Yet this work rarely considers how women's experiences with reproductive health conditions may be linked to their fertility goals, a problematic oversight given the growing emphases on reproductive careers and childbearing biographies that highlight the need to take a life course approach to fertility. Using the 2015-2019 National Survey of Family Growth (<i>N</i> = 8867), this paper examines how reproductive health conditions are associated with women's fertility goals among women who are not surgically sterile or meet the medical definition of infertility. Slightly more than one in five women report at least one reproductive health condition. Multivariable logistic regressions show that women who report a diagnosis of any reproductive health condition are 34% more likely to desire a child than their peers with no such diagnoses. However, conditional on desiring a child, women with such diagnoses are 35% less likely to intend to have a child. These findings suggest that reproductive health conditions might be perceived as barriers to fulfilling fertility goals.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-026-09996-0.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 2","pages":"10"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12935700/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147327742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Precise Geographic Adjustments on the Supplemental Poverty Measure.","authors":"J Tom Mueller, Darcy L Sullivan, Matthew M Brooks, Regina S Baker","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-09995-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-09995-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The official poverty measure of the United States remains unequipped to appropriately capture poverty across America. As a result, the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) has increasingly supplanted the official measure in policy analysis and statistics. A primary point of conflict among poverty-focused scholars regarding the SPM is its current geographic adjustment, which adjusts poverty thresholds at three spatial scales: identified metropolitan areas, unidentified metropolitan areas by state, and nonmetropolitan areas by state. Pooling all nonmetropolitan counties within each state into a single adjustment is believed to be responsible for the 'flip' in the rural-urban poverty differential between the official measure and the SPM. Using federally restricted data, we address this conflict and generate novel estimates of the SPM using county-specific, hybrid, and commuting-zone geographic adjustments. Our estimates illustrate the role of the current adjustment in our understanding of rural-urban poverty, while also demonstrating the utility of our preferred commuting-zone-level adjustment.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-026-09995-1.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 2","pages":"12"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12948913/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147327767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in Fertility Trends and Women's Fertility Desires in the Wake of the Homicide Surge in Mexico.","authors":"Ginevra Floridi, Maria Gargiulo, José Manuel Aburto","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-09999-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-09999-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since 2006, Mexico has experienced a surge in homicides due to national policies and international influences on drug trafficking activities. Although the effects of the so-called \"Drug War\" have been extensively studied in demography and social science research, whether and how the increase in homicides has affected fertility is poorly understood. This study provides a comprehensive account of the association between homicides and changes in fertility rates and desires in Mexico. Using population-level administrative data on births, deaths, and homicides for 2443 municipalities, we apply fixed-effects models and a staggered difference-in-differences estimator to study the effect of homicidal violence on total fertility rate (TFR), crude birth rate (CBR), and birth counts across Mexican municipalities between 2000 and 2020. Then, using random-intercept and fixed-effects models, we analyze the association between changes in homicide rates and fertility desires for 6341 women from the Mexican Family Life Survey (2002-2012). Our findings show very small negative associations, and no overall effect of homicides on fertility for the period considered. Similarly, we find no association between municipality-level homicide rates and fertility desires, consistently by education, age, and parity. Our results show remarkable continuity in the Mexican fertility decline despite the rapid escalation of violence.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-026-09999-x.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 2","pages":"17"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12992446/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147482121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Brief Report: Are Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Apprehensions a Reliable Proxy for Undocumented Migration? New Evidence on Migration from Guatemala.","authors":"Matthew Blanton","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-10012-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-10012-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Researchers have long relied on United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) apprehension data as a proxy for undocumented migration, yet the last time their validity was assessed was in 1995. Significant changes in the composition of migrants and border crossings since then raise questions about their continued validity. In this study, I provide an updated analysis using two independent data sources: the 2018 Guatemalan Census and annual estimates of undocumented Guatemalan arrivals to the United States from the Center for Migration Studies (CMS). Descriptive and regression analyses reveal a strong alignment between apprehensions, household migrations reported in the census, and estimated undocumented entries, suggesting that CBP apprehension data remained a reliable indicator of undocumented migration trends at both national and subnational levels during this period. These findings underscore the continued relevance of apprehensions and the need for regular empirical updates as migration dynamics evolve.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-026-10012-8.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 3","pages":"29"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13157390/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147876137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Future Availability of Family Caregivers: Implications for Late-Life Care Gaps.","authors":"Vicki A Freedman, Rachel Margolis, Ashton M Verdery, Emily M Agree, Esther M Friedman","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-10016-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-10016-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Discussions about future care needs of U.S. older adults have frequently called attention to ongoing changes in families as the harbinger of a looming family care shortfall. To explore this premise, we paired estimates from the National Health and Aging Trends Study with projections of kinship patterns by age, sex, race through 2040. We defined care gaps in two complementary ways: the number of older adults with care needs who have (1) no family caregivers and (2) unmet care needs, whether they have caregivers or not. We projected outcomes for the overall older adult population and by sex, marital status, and racial groups, accounting first for only population growth and then allowing shifts in age structure, family structure, and family size. We projected that because of population growth alone, by 2040 the number of U.S. older adults with care needs but no family caregivers will reach 7.7 million and the number with unmet care needs will reach 14 million, up 22.9% from 2022 figures. Population growth and aging together resulted in a 32.5% and 33.9% increase, respectively, in these numbers. Impending changes in family structure and family size did not appreciably increase these estimates. Patterns for subgroups were substantially similar. We conclude that care gaps are projected to grow substantially in the United States by 2040, but contrary to prevailing concerns, population growth and changes in the age structure of the older population are primarily responsible, rather than shifts in family structure and family size.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-026-10016-4.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 3","pages":"33"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13226366/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148158626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Ongoing Gender Revolution in Europe: Women's Stable Employment as a Precondition for Partnered First Births.","authors":"Angela Greulich, Michael S Rendall","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-09990-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-09990-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The literature on the micro-level gendered associations between employment and fertility in couples has presented a mixed picture, contrasting a uniformly positive association of employment and first birth for men with negative, zero, or positive associations for women. Differences in period, country context, and women's educational level have been proposed as explanations for the ambiguous findings. We attempted to resolve these differences and explanations by estimating the employment associations for co-residential different-sex couples' first birth in 24 European countries using the 2004-2017 waves of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) panel survey. We paid particular attention to the stability of women's pre-conception employment. We found that having both the woman and man full-time, full-year employed was associated with a higher first-birth risk relative to only the man full-time, full-year employed (\"male-breadwinner\") and relative to neither the woman nor the man full-time, full-year employed. Women's full-time, full-year employment across two pre-conception years was strongly positively associated with the risk of first birth for women's low-, medium-, and high-educational-attainment groups. The association of women's full-time, full-year employment with first birth was positive not only overall, but also separately for Western-, Eastern-, and Southern-European country groups. These findings suggest that women's stable full-time employment may be a general precondition for initiating parenthood among European couples.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at10.1007/s11113-026-09990-6.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 1","pages":"8"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12886254/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146167303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Immigrant Fertility in Canada 2001-2021: A Brief Report.","authors":"Yue Teng, Rachel Margolis, Yoko Yoshida, Howard Ramos","doi":"10.1007/s11113-026-10032-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-026-10032-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Canada has low fertility and relies on immigration to support the labor force and population growth. However, if recent waves of immigrants have the same or lower rates of fertility than native-born Canadians, then immigration becomes a demographic revolving door rather than long-term solution for the country's population pressures. This paper provides estimates for immigrant fertility in Canada 2001-2021, examining heterogeneity by age at migration, immigration streams, and country of origin. We use the long-form Canadian census (2001, 2006, 2016, 2021) and the National Household Survey (2011). Using the \"Own Infant Method\", we estimate total fertility rates for different population subgroups for the period prior to each census. Immigrants to Canada have higher fertility than native-born Canadians, but the gap is narrowing, from 0.24 births in 2001 to 0.11 in 2021. Within immigrant categories, there is great variation. First-generation immigrants have the highest TFR, while 1.5-generation immigrants have even lower fertility than both first-generation immigrants and those who are native-born. Among immigration streams, family stream immigrants have the highest fertility, followed by refugees, and then economic immigrants. Fertility rates of immigrants from almost all of the top ten source countries declined substantially between 2001 and 2021, with most being below replacement level in Canada and much lower than the fertility in the source country. These findings are essential for policymakers as they debate the right levels of immigration, and which immigration streams and source countries best promote long-term population growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"45 4","pages":"47"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13379414/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148498153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}