Population Research and Policy Review最新文献

{"title":"Addressing Abortion Underreporting in Surveys with the List Experiment: Lifetime and Five-Year Abortion Incidence with Multivariate Estimation of Socio-demographic Associations in two U.S. States.","authors":"Heide M Jackson, Michael S Rendall","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09925-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-024-09925-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Limited data are available on the characteristics and outcomes both of people who have and who have not had an abortion. Administrative data sources contain information on aggregate abortion counts and some demographic characteristics describing individuals who had an abortion but not on those who did not have an abortion. They are therefore of limited use for analyzing the characteristics, reproductive behaviors, and attitudes associated with abortion risk. Direct questions in population representative surveys yield downwardly biased estimates of abortion and likely differential underreporting of abortion by socio-demographic characteristics. In the present study, we evaluate the effectiveness of an indirect survey method, the list experiment, for improving estimates of abortion risk and differentials in population-representative surveys. We estimate cumulative-lifetime abortion incidence in 2017 and five-year incidence in 2021 using two cross-sectional surveys administered in Delaware and Maryland and evaluate the five-year estimates against external benchmarks from administrative data. We use multivariate regression with the list-experiment data to examine abortion incidence by socio-demographic predictors. We find that list-experiment estimates of five-year abortion incidence are similar to estimates calculated from external data: that cumulative lifetime abortion incidence increases monotonically with age, and that five-year incidence is inverse U-shaped. Black adults are found to be much more likely to have had an abortion both in the past five-years and over the reproductive lifetime, before and after controlling for age, parity, relationship status, education, and household income. We conclude positively about the validity and utility of the list experiment method.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12101614/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144144015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Millennials as a Demographic Bridge to Diversity? Segregation and Diversity of Young Adult Neighborhoods.","authors":"Noli Brazil, Jennifer Candipan","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09954-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-025-09954-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As young adults, the Millennial generation emerged as the largest and most racially and ethnically diverse generation in U.S. history. These unique demographic characteristics, along with more progressive self-reported views on racial and ethnic issues, prompted some to label this generation as a demographic bridge to America's diverse future. This article examines whether these unique characteristics translate into greater neighborhood racial diversity and integration. Specifically, this study sets out to answer whether the neighborhoods where Millennial young adults live are more racially and ethnically diverse and situated in less segregated metropolitan areas than those where young adults from prior generations resided. Using 1990-2020 Census data, we find that young adult Millennials are living in less segregated neighborhoods than their counterparts from previous generations. This pattern holds whether examining the segregation of White young adults from the total population or restricting the analysis to segregation solely among young adults. We further find that a greater presence of White young adult Millennials is positively associated with neighborhood diversity. However, our decomposition analysis, which disaggregates segregation to the agegroup level, suggests that increased uneven sorting among Late Millennial young adults is also driving racial imbalances within neighborhoods among younger and older age groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 3","pages":"32"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12069491/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144081024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geographic Realities of Abortion Access in Texas: Exploring the Heterogeneous Effects of Texas Senate Bill 8 with Mobile Phone Data.","authors":"Jessica Miller, Guangqing Chi","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09948-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-025-09948-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Restrictive abortion policies have generated reductions in abortion access, increased travel distance to abortion clinics as a result of clinic closures, and produced declines in maternal health outcomes. This study explores the effects of Texas Senate Bill 8 (SB8), the most restrictive bill prior to the overturning of <i>Roe v. Wade</i>, on abortion access in Texas. We used a difference-in-differences approach to explore the heterogeneous effects of SB8 on abortion access for communities of varying socioeconomic statuses and travel distances using 16 months of SafeGraph Inc. mobile phone pattern data for 21 Texas and four Oklahoma abortion clinics between January 1, 2021, and April 30, 2022. Implementation of SB8 was associated with 34% fewer abortion clinic visits in Texas than in Oklahoma. The effects of SB8 on access to abortion care across state borders had a disproportionately greater impact on women in low-income communities. This study provides further evidence of the discriminatory impacts of SB8 in Texas.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-025-09948-0.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 3","pages":"29"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12053199/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144002791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of Despair in Predicting Self-Destructive Behaviors.","authors":"Lauren Gaydosh, Audrey Kelly, Iliya Gutin, Lilly Shanahan, Jennifer Godwin, Kathleen Mullan Harris, William Copeland","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09952-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-025-09952-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Working age (25-64) mortality in the US has been increasing for decades, driven in part by rising deaths due to drug overdose, as well as increases in suicide and alcohol-related mortality. These deaths have been hypothesized by some to be due to despair, but this has rarely been empirically tested. For despair to explain mortality due to alcohol-related liver disease, suicide, and drug overdose, it must first predict the behaviors that lead to such causes of death. To that end, we aim to answer two research questions. First, does despair predict the behaviors that are antecedent to the \"deaths of despair\"? Second, what measures and domains of despair are most important? We use data from over 6000 individuals at five waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and apply supervised machine learning to assess the role of despair in predicting self-destructive behaviors associated with these causes of death. Comparing predictive performance within each outcome using measures of despair to benchmark models of clinical and prior behavioral predictors, we evaluate the added predictive value of despair above and beyond established risk factors. We find that despair underperforms compared to clinical risk factors for suicidal ideation and heavy drinking, but over performs compared to clinical risk factors and prior behaviors for illegal drug use and prescription drug misuse. We also compare model performance and feature importance across outcomes; our ability to predict thoughts of suicide, drug abuse and misuse, and heavy drinking differs depending on the behavior, and the relative importance of different indicators of despair varies across outcomes as well. Our findings suggest that the self-destructive behaviors are distinct and the pathways from despair to self-destructive behavior varied. The results draw into question the relevance of despair as a unifying framework for understanding the current crisis in midlife health and mortality.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 3","pages":"33"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12075290/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144081318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variation Between LGBT Estimates and State Policy Context.","authors":"Lee A Brady, Christopher A Julian, Wendy D Manning","doi":"10.1007/s11113-025-09938-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11113-025-09938-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>State-level social policy and LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender) population concentration are key measures that are often used as indicators reflecting geographic social climate. Still, research has yet to investigate how they may be interrelated, including the degree to which the LGBT population are subject to certain policies. Using population-based experimental data from the Household Pulse Survey and policy measures from the Movement Advancement Project, we compared measures of state-level policy and concentration of the LGBT population for 2022. After calculating the correlation between these two constructs, the authors identified state-level variation in these measures for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC. With a correlation of 0.58, the findings revealed variation at the state level and indicated that LGBT population concentration and state-level LGBT policy do not necessarily reflect synonymous social phenomena and constitute distinct but complementary measures for use in constructing indices of structural heterosexism and social climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 1","pages":"11"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11861240/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143524990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Realization of Short-Term Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro-Level Conditions Matter?","authors":"Zsolt Spéder, Lajos Bálint","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09913-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09913-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This is the first large-scale comparative study to search for macro-level determinants of the realization of short-term fertility intentions across European countries. Using the unique follow-up feature of the Generations and Gender Survey and adopting rigorous definitions of intentions and outcomes, it reports on the level of fulfilment and finds clear heterogeneity across European countries. Using a multilevel, multivariate approach, it examines the nature of macro-level factors that may explain differences in the realization of fertility intentions. Based on our analysis, we conclude that labour market stability (as measured by fluctuations in the unemployment rate), price stability, heavy welfare state involvement, and the dominance of certain attitudinal conditions all support the greater realization of short-term fertility intentions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142249166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perceived Spousal Concordance on Desired Family Size and Birth Intendedness Among Second and Higher-Order Births in Pakistan","authors":"Saima Bashir, Karen Benjamin Guzzo","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09914-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09914-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Regardless of intentions to stop or space childbearing, women in many countries experience unintended fertility (having more children than desired or having children when they do not want to do so). In Pakistan, around one-fifth of all pregnancies are unintended, which can reflect limited reproductive autonomy. Using the Pakistan Demographic Health Surveys of 1990–1991 and 2017–2018, we examine whether perceived spousal concordance on desired family size and women’s education influence how women characterize the intendedness of second and higher-order births. Compared to women with perceived concordance, women who perceive their husbands have a higher desired family size are less likely to characterize a recent birth as unwanted than intended, and women who are unaware of their husbands’ desired family size are also less likely to characterize births as mistimed or unwanted. The relative risk of reporting an unwanted birth decreased across all categories of perceived spousal concordance between 1990–1991 and 2017–2018 except for women who reported that their husbands want fewer children than them. Compared to women with no formal education, women with a primary or secondary education are more likely to have mistimed than intended or unwanted fertility, and this link has not changed significantly over time. The results suggest all women continue to face challenges in implementing preferences about birth timing and spacing for second and higher-order births. Although better-educated women do not appear to face issues in exerting stopping preferences, they appear to have greater difficulty exerting timing preferences. This paper extends research on the fertility transition in Pakistan, and continued work is needed to understand why rising levels of education among women are not translating into fewer mistimed births.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142180193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Health Care Access Among Children in Latinx Families Across U.S. Destinations","authors":"Elizabeth Ackert, Stephanie Potochnick","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09902-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09902-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Latinx children now live in a wider array of U.S. geographic areas than in the past, including both established and new areas of Latinx settlement. This geographic heterogeneity could be consequential for Latinx children’s health care access, with prior research suggesting increased health access barriers for Latinx children in new versus established areas of settlement. Merging public-use county-level data with restricted individual-level health data from the National Health Interview Survey (2010–2014), we quantitatively examine how three health access indicators—health insurance coverage, delayed care, and usual place of care—differ among children (ages 4–17) in Latinx immigrant, Latinx U.S.-born, White U.S.-born, and Black U.S.-born families (<i>n</i> = 89,994) across established, fast-growing hub, new, and minor Latinx destination counties. We also examine the potential roles of local immigrant hostilities and health care resources in contributing to health access differences across destinations. In fully adjusted models, children in new destinations are less likely to have health insurance than peers in established destinations, and this disparity is even wider for Latinx children of immigrants. Adjusted model results also show that children in new destinations are more likely to have delayed care than those in established destinations, and children in these four groups in new destinations, fast-growing hubs, and minor destinations are more likely to have no usual place of care than peers in established destinations. Our results are consistent with prior work suggesting that more health care access barriers exist for children, particularly Latinx children of immigrants, in new versus established Latinx destinations.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142180195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State-Level LGBTQ + Policies and Experiences of Interpersonal Discrimination among Sexual and Gender Minority People","authors":"Alex J. Bates, Claire M. Kamp Dush, Wendy D. Manning","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09907-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09907-1","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Objectives</h3><p>To quantify the role of state-level lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ+)-related policies on experiences of discrimination in a population-representative sample of partnered individuals.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>An adjusted multilevel random-intercept logistic regression model with individuals (level-1) nested within states (level-2) and a cross-level interaction term between gender/sexual identity and policy score was used to estimate the predicted probability of any experiences of discrimination for cisgender heterosexual, transgender and non-binary, and cisgender sexual minority respondents.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>Experiences of discrimination in the past month were more common amongst transgender and non-binary (90.2%) respondents compared to their cisgender sexual minority (74.0%) or cisgender heterosexual (73.2%) counterparts. When compared to cisgender heterosexual respondents, the interaction term was found to be statistically significant for only transgender and non-binary (OR = 0.93, 95% CI [0.88, 0.98]) but not cisgender sexual minority respondents (OR = 0.99, 95% CI [0.97, 1.01]). Indicating that as state policy environments became more protective the odds of experiencing discrimination decreased at a more substantial rate for transgender and non-binary respondents when compared to cisgender sexual minority or cisgender heterosexual respondents.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusions</h3><p>Transgender and non-binary individuals experience more discrimination compared to their cisgender sexual minority or cisgender heterosexual counterparts. State-level LGBTQ + policy protections amplified the relationship between gender identity and experiences of discrimination.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142180190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Infant Mortality in Mother and Baby Homes in 20th Century Ireland","authors":"Liam Delaney, Mark E. McGovern, James P. Smith","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09901-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09901-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>During the first half of the 20th century, infant mortality in the general population fell by more than 50% in higher income countries. Despite accounting for a disproportionately high share of deaths in these countries during this period, few quantitative studies have examined the experiences of infants who were born or raised in an institutional context. In this paper, we quantify mortality rates in Mother and Baby Homes in Ireland, institutions that were aimed primarily at unmarried mothers and their infants. Using information on over 40,000 infants born in the 6 largest of these insitutions in Ireland, we assess how this risk of mortality changed over the course of the 20th century relative to the general population, and assess variation in death rates by observed characteristics. The mortality penalty for these institutions was greatly elevated, reaching four times the national mortality rate in the 1930s and 1940s. By comparing the outcomes of infants from the Mother and Baby Homes with the rest of the population using large-scale quantitative data, this study documents the scale of the disadvantage faced by marginalised communities born outside public hospital systems, and highlights the potential role of nutrition-related causes in these disparities.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142180194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}