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Conflict and Girl Child Marriage: Global Evidence 冲突与女童婚姻:全球证据
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09905-3
Caroline Krafft, Diana Jimena Arango, Amalia Hadas Rubin, Jocelyn Kelly
{"title":"Conflict and Girl Child Marriage: Global Evidence","authors":"Caroline Krafft, Diana Jimena Arango, Amalia Hadas Rubin, Jocelyn Kelly","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09905-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09905-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Child marriage has lasting negative health, human capital, and welfare consequences. Conflict settings are characterized by a number of complex changes that can potentially increase the risk of child marriage, but there has been limited population-based research directly estimating the relationship between conflict and child marriage. Using data from 19 conflict-affected countries, this paper estimates the relationship between conflict and child marriage. It identifies the relationship based on variation over space and time in conflict intensity. The findings are mixed; in some countries conflict is associated with an increase in child marriage, in others it is associated with a decrease in child marriage, and in some cases there is not a statistically significant relationship. These findings underscore how efforts to reduce child marriage need to consider conflict as a potential risk factor, but also one that is likely to interact with local economic, social, and demographic environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141886386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Population Change in Wildfire-Affected Areas in the United States: Evidence from U.S. Postal Service Residential Address Data 美国受野火影响地区的人口变化:来自美国邮政局住宅地址数据的证据
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09904-4
Jack DeWaard, Alexander M. Din, Kathryn McConnell, Elizabeth Fussell
{"title":"Population Change in Wildfire-Affected Areas in the United States: Evidence from U.S. Postal Service Residential Address Data","authors":"Jack DeWaard, Alexander M. Din, Kathryn McConnell, Elizabeth Fussell","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09904-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09904-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the utility of data on active and vacant residential addresses to inform local and timely monitoring and assessments of how areas impacted by wildfires and extreme weather events more broadly lose (or not) and subsequently recover (or not) their populations. Provided by the U.S. Postal Service to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and other users, these data are an underutilized and potentially valuable tool to study population change in disaster-affected areas for at least three reasons. First, as they are aggregated to the ZIP + 4 level, they permit highly local portraits of residential and, indirectly, of population change. Second, they are tabulated on a quarterly basis starting in 2010 through the most recent quarter, thereby allowing for timely assessments than other data sources. Third, one mechanism of population change—namely, underlying changes in residential occupancies and vacancies—is explicit in the data. Our findings show that these data are sufficient for detecting signals of residential and, indirectly, of population change during and after particularly damaging wildfires; however, there is also noticeable variation across cases that requires further investigations into, for example, the guidance the U.S. Postal Services provides its postal offices and carriers to classify addresses as vacant.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Future Process of Japan’s Population Aging: A Cluster Analysis Using Small Area Population Projection Data 日本人口老龄化的未来进程:利用小地区人口预测数据的聚类分析
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09903-5
Takashi Inoue, Nozomu Inoue
{"title":"The Future Process of Japan’s Population Aging: A Cluster Analysis Using Small Area Population Projection Data","authors":"Takashi Inoue, Nozomu Inoue","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09903-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09903-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Japan’s population aging is the most advanced in the world today. No nationwide study has been conducted using small area population projection data on Japan’s aging population. This is because such projection data was unavailable for Japan before the 2016 launch of the website ‘The Web System of Small Area Population Projections for the Whole Japan’ (SAPP for Japan). SAPP for Japan opened the small-area and long-term projected population of Japan for the first time on the World Wide Web. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively analyze the future aging process using data from the SAPP for Japan and, based on this analysis, to attempt to present the standard aging process that developed countries will experience after the demographic transition, taking advantage of the fact that Japan has the most aged population in the world. Subsequently, a non-hierarchical cluster analysis was performed using two statistics on aging: the elderly population proportion and the elderly population change index, and the small areas were classified into seven clusters. Furthermore, this study examined the demographic and geographical features of the clusters, introduced a new concept of the stage in the population aging process, and analyzed the relationship between the features and the stages. To conclude, the following findings were obtained regarding the future process of Japan’s population aging. In each area of Japan, first, the total population begins to decline, second, the elderly population begins to decrease, and finally, its proportion begins to decrease. These stage shifts generally proceed earlier in areas with a higher elderly population proportion and are attributed to the reduced size of younger cohorts owing to long-term fertility decline. This process would be the norm in many developed countries after the demographic transition.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"25 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141614710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modelling and Forecasting Interregional Migration for Multiregional Population Projections 为多区域人口预测建立区域间移民模型并进行预测
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09892-5
Michael P. Cameron, Jacques Poot
{"title":"Modelling and Forecasting Interregional Migration for Multiregional Population Projections","authors":"Michael P. Cameron, Jacques Poot","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09892-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09892-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper we focus on modelling and forecasting gross interregional migration in a way that can be embedded within multiregional population projections. We revisit, and apply, a family of spatial interaction models first formulated during the 1970s. The classic gravity model—in which migration is positively related to the populations of sending and receiving areas, but inversely related to various types of spatial friction associated with migrating between them—is a special case that is nested within this family of models. We investigate which member of the family of models gives the best fit when modelling five-year migration flows between the 66 Territorial Authorities (TAs) of Aotearoa New Zealand, using 2013 and 2018 census data. We find that predicting migration between two TAs can be improved by taking into account, firstly, an index of the ‘draw’ from all other TAs when modelling out-migration of any TA and, secondly, an index of the ‘competitiveness’ of a TA vis-à-vis all other TAs when modelling in-migration of any TA. We highlight the properties of the statistically-preferred model by simulating the impact on internal migration of an exogenous increase in Auckland’s population. In this model, such a population change affects not only migration flows from and to Auckland, but also migration between other TAs. The usefulness of this approach for population projections is assessed by forecasting the 2013–18 migration matrix by means of 2013 census data only. In this specific case, the model outperforms the classic gravity model in terms of forecasting gross migration, but not net migration.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Housing Attainment of Interracial Couples in the United States 美国跨种族夫妇的住房获得情况
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09900-8
Kate H. Choi, Arabella Soave
{"title":"Housing Attainment of Interracial Couples in the United States","authors":"Kate H. Choi, Arabella Soave","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09900-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09900-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Over the past few decades, interracial and interethnic marriages have increased significantly. The rise in intermarriages has been celebrated for their potential to reduce ethnoracial distinctions and ethnoracial inequality. Whether the increase in interracial and interethnic unions can reduce disparities in homeownership across ethnoracial groups is unknown. Using data on the 2008–2021 American Community Survey (ACS), we compare the homeownership rates of Millennials in intermarriages with those of couples in endogamous unions and identify the factors contributing to differences in homeownership rates between interracial and couples in ethnoracial endogamy. Our results show that the homeownership rates of interracial couples fall somewhere between those of endogamous couples belonging to the husband’s or wife’s ethnoracial groups. These differences emerge primarily due to variations in nativity composition, educational attainment, family income, average value of homes, and proportion of rentals. The intermediary homeownership rates of interracial couples suggest that the rise in intermarriages will reduce ethnoracial inequality in homeownership rates. Nonetheless, couples in marriages involving an ethnoracial minority spouse have lower homeownership rates than endogamous White couples. This White/non-White divide in homeownership rates highlights the need for a housing policy that enhances opportunities for homeownership among interracial and endogamous minority couples.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141566807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unequal Access to Primary Care Providers at the Intersection of Race/Ethnicity, Sexual Orientation, and Gender 在种族/族裔、性取向和性别交叉点上获得初级保健提供者服务的不平等现象
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09898-z
Ning Hsieh, Deirdre Shires, Hui Liu, Sam Safford, Kryssia J. Campos
{"title":"Unequal Access to Primary Care Providers at the Intersection of Race/Ethnicity, Sexual Orientation, and Gender","authors":"Ning Hsieh, Deirdre Shires, Hui Liu, Sam Safford, Kryssia J. Campos","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09898-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09898-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Not all U.S. populations have equal access to a primary care provider (PCP). This study presents one of the first population-based evidence of inequities in access to PCPs at the intersection of race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, and gender. We analyzed pooled data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System from 2016 to 2021 across 42 states and 1 territory in the United States. The final sample encompassed 1,142,344 respondents aged 18 and older. Logistic regression models, stratified by gender spectrum, were estimated to compare predicted probabilities of having a PCP across 20 sexual and racial/ethnic identity groups. Among those on the feminine spectrum, most sexual minorities of color exhibited lower rates of having a PCP compared to heterosexual White individuals. Even when sociodemographic and health factors were accounted for, PCP access disadvantages remained significant in some groups of Native and Hispanic sexual minorities. Among sexual minorities of color on the masculine spectrum, inequities were less prominent, and sociodemographic and health factors nearly explained all their disadvantages. Sexual orientation, gender, and race/ethnicity intersect to shape the access to PCPs. Future research, policy designs, and clinical practices should adopt an intersectional approach to achieve a better understanding of healthcare inequities and to reduce inequities.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141566799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India 印度的父权制和儿童性别比
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09897-0
Srinivas Goli, Somya Arora, Neha Jain, Sekher T. V.
{"title":"Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India","authors":"Srinivas Goli, Somya Arora, Neha Jain, Sekher T. V.","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09897-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09897-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In multi-level and multi-layered foundations of gendered approaches for understanding the kinship system, family-building behavior, son preference, and male-skewed child sex ratios in India; patriarchy and patrilineality have received greater attention than patrilocality. To fill this gap, we construct a measure of patrilocality and hypothesize that households practice sex selection and daughter discrimination because of patrilocality norms that dictate the later life co-residence between parents and sons. Our findings reveal that the child sex ratio, sex ratio at birth, and sex ratio at last birth are negatively correlated with patrilocality rates across states and districts of India. The robustness of these findings is verified by using alternative definitions of patrilocality, examining the association between patrilocality and patrilineality, and assessing the relationship between patrilocality and child sex ratios across states and by urbanization levels. We conclude that, in the absence of strong social security measures and a lack of preference for old-age homes, amidst the accepted practice of patrilocality coupled with increasingly lower fertility norms, the dependency on sons will continue, leading to the continuation of sex selection in India.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141513167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Application of the Extended Log Quad Model to Municipal Life Tables 扩展对数四边形模型在市政生命表中的应用
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09899-y
Yu Horiguchi
{"title":"Application of the Extended Log Quad Model to Municipal Life Tables","authors":"Yu Horiguchi","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09899-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09899-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we improve on the research results of relational models that enable life table estimates from a small number of demographic indices, such as the Log Quad Model by Wilmoth et al. (Popul Stud 66(1):1–28, 2012) and the Extended Log Quad Model 1 by Horiguchi (J Popul Stud 58:13–28, 2022). Consequently, we propose the Extended Log Quad Model 2. This is a mortality rate model that reflects the remarkable improvement in old-age mortality rates in Japan since the 1970s. This is intended for application to the estimation of municipal life tables in Japan. The Extended Log Quad Model 2 is useful for municipal policymaking because it is possible to estimate future life tables with a high level of accuracy by projecting only life expectancy at the age of 65. It is also suggested that the Extended Log Quad Model 2 will be applicable to other developed countries, such as Australia, Canada, France, and New Zealand.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141513166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fertility in the Heart of the COVID-19 Storm COVID-19 风暴中心的生育能力
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09893-4
Daniel Dench, Wenhui Li, Theodore Joyce, Howard Minkoff, Gretchen Van Wye
{"title":"Fertility in the Heart of the COVID-19 Storm","authors":"Daniel Dench, Wenhui Li, Theodore Joyce, Howard Minkoff, Gretchen Van Wye","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09893-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09893-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We describe how the COVID-19 pandemic affected reproductive choices in New York City, the most acutely impacted area of the United States. We contrast changes in New York City with reproductive outcomes in the rest of the US. We find that births to New York City residents fell 8.4% more between March 2020 and February 2021 than would have been expected given trends before the pandemic. Births to US-born residents of New York City fell 5.5% over the same year, triple the decline in the rest of the US. Births to foreign-born New York City residents fell 11.4%, twice the decline in the rest of the US. Reported induced and spontaneous abortions to New York City residents fell precipitously whereas induced abortions nation-wide rose slightly. The acute downturn and robust recovery in New York City births maps closely with the spike in mortality and its rapid decline three months later.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141513169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Role of Salience and Memory in Fertility Decisions: Experimental Evidence 显著性和记忆在生育决策中的作用:实验证据
IF 2.4 3区 社会学
Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09895-2
Vincenzo Galasso
{"title":"The Role of Salience and Memory in Fertility Decisions: Experimental Evidence","authors":"Vincenzo Galasso","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09895-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09895-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Public policies use communication campaigns to affect individual behavior. We analyze how providing women with information on the beneficial effects of using formal childcare may affect their realized fertility. We argue that cues in the messages are particularly salient for mothers and women with fertility intensions, since they activate these women’s past memories. Hence, cues induce these women to create mental representations of future actions, such as realized fertility. We exploit a randomized survey experiment run in 2011, which provides information on the positive effects that attending daycare may have on the children’ future cognitive development. Using a follow-up survey run six-year later we show that the treatment increases realized fertility among mothers and women with declared fertility intentions, for whom the communication was more salient. Yet, the treatment did not affect the individual knowledge nor recall of the information provided in the message. Our results carry important policy implications: persuading individuals is difficult, but communication can be effective if salient.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"554 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141513168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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