The Future Process of Japan’s Population Aging: A Cluster Analysis Using Small Area Population Projection Data

Japan’s population aging is the most advanced in the world today. No nationwide study has been conducted using small area population projection data on Japan’s aging population. This is because such projection data was unavailable for Japan before the 2016 launch of the website ‘The Web System of Small Area Population Projections for the Whole Japan’ (SAPP for Japan). SAPP for Japan opened the small-area and long-term projected population of Japan for the first time on the World Wide Web. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively analyze the future aging process using data from the SAPP for Japan and, based on this analysis, to attempt to present the standard aging process that developed countries will experience after the demographic transition, taking advantage of the fact that Japan has the most aged population in the world. Subsequently, a non-hierarchical cluster analysis was performed using two statistics on aging: the elderly population proportion and the elderly population change index, and the small areas were classified into seven clusters. Furthermore, this study examined the demographic and geographical features of the clusters, introduced a new concept of the stage in the population aging process, and analyzed the relationship between the features and the stages. To conclude, the following findings were obtained regarding the future process of Japan’s population aging. In each area of Japan, first, the total population begins to decline, second, the elderly population begins to decrease, and finally, its proportion begins to decrease. These stage shifts generally proceed earlier in areas with a higher elderly population proportion and are attributed to the reduced size of younger cohorts owing to long-term fertility decline. This process would be the norm in many developed countries after the demographic transition.