Yuanmiao Cui , Xia Fang , Xuyiyang Hu , Kaina Fu , Zhenyu Yang
{"title":"The impact of cross-border capital flows macro-prudential management policy on bank credit","authors":"Yuanmiao Cui , Xia Fang , Xuyiyang Hu , Kaina Fu , Zhenyu Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of cross-border capital flow-oriented macro-prudential policies (MPPs) on banking credit dynamics through a quasi-natural experiment encompassing 110 countries from 2000 to 2020. The findings reveal that MPPs significantly mitigate banking credit growth, with more pronounced effects during the post-financial-crisis period. These policies act through commodity prices and exchange rate movements by tempering capital inflows, thereby reducing excessive credit expansion and curbing systemic financial risks. The efficacy of MPPs is critically shaped by regulatory frameworks, the degree of economic liberalization, and the concentration dynamics within banking sectors, collectively underscoring the indispensable role of institutional robustness and competitive market mechanisms in policy implementation. Furthermore, the study uncovers an asymmetrical policy impact, with MPPs demonstrating enhanced efficacy in countries characterized by more advanced financial development. These results have significant policy implications, emphasizing the strategic value of targeted macro-prudential measures in three crucial areas: stabilizing credit cycles, enhancing financial system resilience, and preventing the cross-border contagion of financial vulnerabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101979"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144331163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qingfang Wei , Yuan Liu , Weixing Cai , Jiangtao Wan
{"title":"Open government data and personal default: Evidence from China","authors":"Qingfang Wei , Yuan Liu , Weixing Cai , Jiangtao Wan","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101978","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101978","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper employs a quasi-natural experiment and a double-difference model to explore the impact of Open Government Data (OGD) on personal default in China. Our findings demonstrate that OGD significantly reduces instances of personal default, highlighting its positive role in enhancing the social credit system. Mechanism analysis indicates that this reduction occurs primarily through the alleviation of entrepreneurial failure risk, improved risk management capabilities among banks, and the optimization of regional commercial credit environments. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the influence of OGD is particularly pronounced in regions characterized by higher risk tolerance, greater economic policy uncertainty, enhanced information accessibility, and more mobile traditional factors. Additionally, the effect is more significant among young and middle-aged individuals. These findings contribute empirical insights that may inform the establishment of social credit systems particularly in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101978"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic catch-up of BRICS and escape factors from the middle-income trap from a Schumpeterian perspective","authors":"Jongho Lee , Eunah Hong , Junhee Han","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For this paper, we are going to compare five variables in the National Innovation System (Localization, Originality, Diversification, Cycle time of technology, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) for BRICS countries (Brazil, Federation of Russia, India, China, and South Africa). To do so, the paper first classifies BRICS countries into three different groups: fast catch-up, catch-up, and slow or no catch-up. Then, the paper analyses the changes in those five variables for the thirty years using USPTO patent data. The paper finds that fast-catching-up BRICS countries have different trajectories for localization, originality, the cycle time of technology, and HHI from slower catch-up BRICS countries. Then, the paper discusses strategies for middle-income countries to break through the middle-income trap which is different from simply following advanced countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101966"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144271645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How does fiscal policy affect green innovation development? Evidence from 30 provinces in China","authors":"Ran Zhao, Yuhan Zhao, Pinglin He","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101967","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green innovation development mode has emerged as a critical driver of high-quality development in China. Utilizing panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2007–2023), this study investigates the role of fiscal policy on green innovation development (<em>GID</em>) with mediation and conditional process models. Our findings indicate that fiscal science and technology (S&T) expenditure significantly promotes GID, and this effect is most pronounced in regions with a robust digital economy policy, stronger intellectual property rights (<em>IPR</em>) protection, a talent-driven economy, and the central provinces. Meanwhile, Green technology innovation has a primary mediation effect, while green tax negatively moderates the mediating role of green technology innovation between fiscal S&T expenditure and GID. Furthermore, the threshold effect reveals that fiscal pressure can enhance the main relationship. Potential reasons are that the central government's green development orientation forces high-pressure local governments to generate new economic growth. This study contributes a deeper understanding of the dynamic interactions between financial resources, government behaviour and green innovation, providing valuable insights for optimizing policy frameworks. It also offers some references for other developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101967"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The hidden benefit of environmental regulation: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in China","authors":"Maoyu Gong , Ning Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many studies have focused on the direct benefits of environmental regulation, while the hidden benefits are neglected. Utilizing data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), this paper examines the indirect impacts of environmental regulation on workers’ health, along with the underlying mechanisms. Our results suggest that environmental regulation can indirectly promote the workers’ health significantly, which implies it will underestimate the benefit if neglect the hidden benefit of environmental regulation. And the increased defense spending and time spent exercising due to environmental regulation are the main channel for individuals. Meanwhile, enterprises may provide employees with more free time by reducing production and laying off workers, which also benefits the health of employees. The health benefits of different groups are quite different. These findings enhance our understanding of the hidden benefits of environmental regulation and enable a more accurate assessment of its costs and benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101965"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144222019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is central bank resilience vulnerable to climate risks? The role of exchange rate stability and green policies","authors":"Farzan Yahya , Chien-Chiang Lee , Pei-Fen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides the first comprehensive empirical investigation into how climate risk undermines central bank resilience—a critical yet understudied dimension of the climate-financial stability nexus. Using panel data from 115 countries (1998–2020) and robust econometric approaches addressing endogeneity, we document that heightened climate vulnerability significantly impairs central bank independence, transparency, and solvency. We uncover a previously unexplored transmission mechanism wherein climate shocks pressure central banks toward exchange rate stabilization, granting them limited operational discretion while eroding institutional transparency. Notably, we identify two potential shields against these detrimental effects: central bank green policies and financial openness. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals striking regional and structural patterns, with central banks in the Americas facing the highest vulnerability globally. The negative impact intensifies in environments characterized by high output volatility, elevated government debt, cultural opacity, low interest rates, and weak democratic institutions. These findings have profound implications for monetary policy frameworks in an era of climate uncertainty and offer actionable guidance for strengthening central bank resilience against escalating environmental threats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101964"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144203391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"AI-driven unemployment risk and household financial decision: Evidence from China","authors":"Qianyi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines unemployment risk driven by artificial intelligence (AI) on household risky asset investment, focusing on how labour market risk affected by AI influences financial decisions in Chinese household. Using 2016, 2018, and 2020 data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we analyze the relationship between unemployment risk, qualified by the probability of AI replacing occupations and household decisions in financial risky asset investment, constructing the Probit and Tobit models. After several methods dealing with endogeneity issues, we find a positive effect of unemployment risk on household decisions, especially among highincome households, who are more likely to invest in risky assets to hedge against potential work loss. Furthermore, we also find that material aspiration is essential in moderating these investment behaviours. This study provides the first empirical evidence of unemployment risk as a determinant of household risky asset investment in China, utilizing forward-looking data to measure labour market uncertainty across occupations and complementing the 'participation puzzle' explanation for emerging economies. Additionally, it pioneers micro-level analysis of AI-induced unemployment risk, revealing its influence on household financial decisions and introducing the unemployment risk--material aspiration--risky asset investment framework, which expands the understanding of AI's microeconomic effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101963"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of the Serious Accidents Punishment Act on corporate ESG: Evidence from Korea","authors":"Kyunghyun Kim , Seongmin Seo","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of the Serious Accidents Punishment Act (SAPA) on corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) in South Korea. The introduction of SAPA has created new regulatory uncertainties, compelling firms to implement costly measures to prevent serious accidents. Consequently, this increased short-term financial burden may reduce investment in long-term-oriented ESG initiatives. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that firms that are highly affected by SAPA have experienced a notable decrease in ESG scores, particularly environmental and social scores. However, we find no evidence that serious accident rates decreased following SAPA’s introduction. Overall, our findings suggest that regulatory policies such as SAPA that incur substantial immediate costs may limit long-term corporate investment. This study contributes to the understanding of the relationship between regulatory compliance and corporate long-term investment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101959"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144185085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How broadband internet access shapes fertility decisions: Evidence and mechanisms","authors":"Chunxiao Si , Dihai Wang , Maohua Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid expansion of internet infrastructure has substantially transformed various dimensions of daily life. In the context of China’s declining fertility rate, this study investigates the causal impact of broadband adoption on fertility behavior by employing a difference-in-differences (DID) strategy that exploits the Broadband China initiative as an exogenous policy shock. The empirical results indicate that broadband expansion significantly increases fertility rates among women of reproductive age, and the findings remain robust across multiple sensitivity checks. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the effects are particularly pronounced among younger women, rural residents, individuals with higher educational attainment, and those with younger spouses or co-residing parents. Mechanism analysis suggests that broadband promotes fertility by enhancing access to healthcare services, facilitating flexible employment arrangements, and improving household financial resilience. These findings underscore the demographic consequences of digital infrastructure development and offer policy-relevant insights for mitigating fertility decline in the digital era.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101962"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"From conflict to coordination: A new framework to measure the synergy level of pollution-carbon-growth","authors":"Zhengge Tu , Jingyu Mao , Xinlei Xiao , Gang Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a new framework for measuring the synergy degree of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation, using the optimal direction as the benchmark and the proximity between the actual direction and this benchmark as the principle for synergy degree measurement. This measurement framework considers both the actual and optimal directions, quantifies the degree of proximity through the cosine function, and thus intuitively presents the synergy level, effectively addressing the limitation of existing research that predominantly focuses on the actual direction alone. Additionally, it offers differentiated synergy directions based on the actual development stages of different regions. Based on this framework, the paper explores the overall characteristics, evolving trends, and influencing factors of the synergy level of pollution and carbon reduction in China's cities. The results show that the synergy level of pollution and carbon reduction exhibits a fluctuating upward trend, and reducing carbon intensity should be the main focus for improving the synergy level. The synergy levels in the eastern, central, and western regions are relatively lower during their respective periods of rapid economic growth. By employing a simple empirical model to analyze the influencing factors, this paper finds that enhancing economic development levels, promoting green technology innovation, and increasing government attention to ecological environment protection are effective measures to improve the synergy level of pollution and carbon reduction. Conversely, an excessively high proportion of secondary industry and higher economic growth targets will adversely affect the synergy level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 101961"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144123928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}