The J-curve phenomenon in Türkiye’s fossil fuel trade balance: A fourier-ARDL analysis

The persistent imbalance in Türkiye's fossil fuel trade raises important questions about the role of macroeconomic factors, particularly exchange rate dynamics, in shaping energy trade outcomes. Despite theoretical assertions of the J-curve, empirical evidence specific to the physical trade balance of fossil fuels remains limited. This study investigates the short- and long-run effects of real exchange rate movements on Türkiye's physical trade balance for fossil fuels from 1994 to 2024, incorporating gross domestic product, renewable energy consumption, and trade openness as control variables. Employing the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) approach, the results confirm the existence of a J-curve effect, whereby currency depreciation at first worsens but subsequently improves the physical trade balance for fossil fuels. Additionally, economic growth significantly exacerbates fossil fuel trade deficits, while renewable energy consumption reduces the imbalance in the short run. Trade openness is found to have a positive short-run impact, although its long-run effect is statistically insignificant. The study proposes policy recommendations to manage exchange rate flexibility, accelerate renewable energy transitions, and align trade and energy policies to achieve a more resilient and sustainable energy trade balance for Türkiye. The results offer fresh insights into the complex interlinkages between macroeconomic fundamentals and energy trade dynamics.