劳动力外流对犯罪的长期影响：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI:10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102050

Lijun Zang , Lyubing Feng

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究综合利用2005年和2015年中国1 %人口抽样调查数据和中国裁判文书网公布的一审刑事裁判文书数量，探讨劳动力外流对原籍地犯罪的长期影响。结果表明，虽然劳动力外流对总体犯罪率没有显著影响，但对不同类型的犯罪有显著影响。具体而言，劳动力外流增加了低技能犯罪，但减少了高技能犯罪和激情犯罪。机制分析表明，劳动力外流主要通过人力资本机制影响当地犯罪率，即通过减少原籍地区人力资本的长期积累，从而降低犯罪的机会成本、高技能犯罪的可能性以及犯罪后逃避逮捕的能力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The long-term effect of labor outflow on crime: Evidence from China

This study comprehensively utilizes data from the 2005 and 2015 China 1 % Population Sample Surveys and the number of first-instance criminal judgment documents published by China Judgments Online to explore the long-term effects of labor outflow on crime in the origin area. The results reveal that while labor outflow does not significantly affect the overall crime rate, it does have significant effects on different types of crimes. Specifically, labor outflow increases low-skill crimes, but reduces high-skill crimes and passion crimes. Mechanism analysis indicates that labor outflow primarily influences local crime rates through the human capital mechanism, namely by reducing the long-term accumulation of human capital in the origin region, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of crime, the likelihood of high-skill crimes, and the ability to evade arrest after committing a crime.

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来源期刊

Journal of Asian Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

9.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Asian Economics provides a forum for publication of increasingly growing research in Asian economic studies and a unique forum for continental Asian economic studies with focus on (i) special studies in adaptive innovation paradigms in Asian economic regimes, (ii) studies relative to unique dimensions of Asian economic development paradigm, as they are investigated by researchers, (iii) comparative studies of development paradigms in other developing continents, Latin America and Africa, (iv) the emerging new pattern of comparative advantages between Asian countries and the United States and North America.