The long-term effect of labor outflow on crime: Evidence from China

Abstract

This study comprehensively utilizes data from the 2005 and 2015 China 1 % Population Sample Surveys and the number of first-instance criminal judgment documents published by China Judgments Online to explore the long-term effects of labor outflow on crime in the origin area. The results reveal that while labor outflow does not significantly affect the overall crime rate, it does have significant effects on different types of crimes. Specifically, labor outflow increases low-skill crimes, but reduces high-skill crimes and passion crimes. Mechanism analysis indicates that labor outflow primarily influences local crime rates through the human capital mechanism, namely by reducing the long-term accumulation of human capital in the origin region, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of crime, the likelihood of high-skill crimes, and the ability to evade arrest after committing a crime.