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Political Business Cycles in Varieties of Capitalistic Systems 不同资本主义制度下的政治经济周期
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2025-01-19 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12331
Joscha Beckmann, Rainer Schweickert, Marvin Jahn
{"title":"Political Business Cycles in Varieties of Capitalistic Systems","authors":"Joscha Beckmann,&nbsp;Rainer Schweickert,&nbsp;Marvin Jahn","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12331","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study contributes to the literature on political business cycles by assessing the effect of elections on growth expectations based on expert survey data instead of using actual performance data. We analyze the different roles opportunistic and partisan politics play in varieties of capitalistic systems as a source of heterogeneity. Our results show that expectations differ remarkably between Liberal and Coordinated Market Economies (LME vs. CME) even independent of election outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 2","pages":"653-668"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecpo.12331","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prolonged Guesthood: How Syrian Refugees Shaped Turkish Politics? 长期留宿：叙利亚难民如何影响土耳其政治？
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12332
Elif Erbay, Emine Kübra Usta
{"title":"Prolonged Guesthood: How Syrian Refugees Shaped Turkish Politics?","authors":"Elif Erbay,&nbsp;Emine Kübra Usta","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12332","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the effects of Syrian refugee inflow on the voting behavior of natives in Turkey. We utilize administrative data at the provincial level, employ a difference-in-differences strategy for the identification and distance-based instrumental variable to account for the endogenous refugee settlement. We find a positive and significant effect of refugees on the right-wing nationalistic party's (MHP) vote share, while there are no effects on the vote share of the incumbent party (AKP) and the main opposition party (CHP). Investigating the evolution of voting reaction after 2011 shows that AKP vote share first increased in 2015 then dropped in 2018 and 2023. When the heterogeneity of refugee hosting places is considered, CHP vote share increases in highly urban and lower population areas. Overall, our results indicate a considerable voting reaction from natives. We argue that perceived threats of natives based on their sociocultural positions and sociotropic voting behavior explain the natives' reaction.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 2","pages":"638-652"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Government Intelligent Transformation and Mixed-Ownership Reform: Evidence From China 政府智能化转型与混合所有制改革：来自中国的证据
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2024-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12329
Bin Li, Ruiqing Cao, Chenchen Shi, Jing Zhao
{"title":"Government Intelligent Transformation and Mixed-Ownership Reform: Evidence From China","authors":"Bin Li,&nbsp;Ruiqing Cao,&nbsp;Chenchen Shi,&nbsp;Jing Zhao","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12329","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Mixed-ownership reform (the Reform) is crucial for the construction of a modern market economy. Through a proprietary data set of 32 provinces in China, we find that government intelligent transformation (GIT) can attract private firms acquiring local state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and such link is stronger among target firms in central and western regions, and acquirers with lower competitive positions and higher levels of digital transformation. Additionally, we also find this effect exists both in local and nonlocal private firms. Further tests suggest that GIT can regulate government behaviors, reduce relational transactions, and enhance local policy environment quality and the level of local market legal governance, thereby promoting private firms to participate in the Reform. Moreover, in the provinces with higher levels of GIT, there is a greater likelihood that private firms will gain control rights over SOEs and obtain more resources following the Reform. Our findings may have policy implications for the world's largest emerging market.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 2","pages":"595-615"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Women in the Labor Market and Experienced Political Institutions 劳动力市场中的妇女和有经验的政治机构
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12328
Ugo antonio Troiano
{"title":"Women in the Labor Market and Experienced Political Institutions","authors":"Ugo antonio Troiano","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12328","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this paper, I first present a novel finding: women who have experienced democratic institutions during their impressionable years are more likely to participate in the labor market, while controlling for factors such as country, cohort, language and various other confounding factors. I then provide evidence suggesting that discriminatory attitudes may serve as a channel for this phenomenon. Other explanations receive less support from the data.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 2","pages":"582-594"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mafia and Political Competition Redirecting Votes not Discouraging Candidates 黑手党和政治竞争改变选票而不是打击候选人
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12327
Anna Laura Baraldi
{"title":"Mafia and Political Competition Redirecting Votes not Discouraging Candidates","authors":"Anna Laura Baraldi","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12327","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The efforts of organized crime to affect the outcome of elections have been well documented. In the present paper, we exploit the staggered enforcement of Law 164/1991, an anticrime measure that mandates dissolution of the city council in the case of suspected mafia infiltration, to show that political competition in municipal elections in Italy, measured by the win margin between the two “strongest” candidates and the Herfindahl index, increases sharply in the first election following a compulsory administration in dissolved municipalities compared to the control group of municipalities that have never been subject to council dissolution. We find that this effect of the anti-mafia policy remains slightly significant up to the third election after dissolution, after which time it disappears. The paper suggests that mafias manipulate electoral outcomes principally by affecting voter behaviour, rather than by discouraging unfriendly candidates. We investigate several channels that might be driving these results.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 2","pages":"549-581"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144197255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital inclusive finance and digital transformation of Chinese enterprises: Perspectives on company technology intensity and financialization 数字普惠金融与中国企业数字化转型：基于公司技术强度和金融化的视角
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12326
Qian Xu, Qun Cao, Liyan Wang
{"title":"Digital inclusive finance and digital transformation of Chinese enterprises: Perspectives on company technology intensity and financialization","authors":"Qian Xu,&nbsp;Qun Cao,&nbsp;Liyan Wang","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12326","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12326","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study explores the role of digital inclusive finance in company digital transformation within China, particularly examining the variances among companies with differing levels of technological intensity and financialization. Using A-share Chinese data from 2011 to 2022, we find that regions with superior digital inclusive finance exhibit enhanced corporate digital transformation, regardless of the provincial or municipal level. Subindexes, including the coverage breadth, use depth, and degree of digital inclusive finance, confirm that they are all significantly positively related to digital transformation. These effects are more pronounced in companies with lower technological intensity, and corporate financialization serves as a mediating factor.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 1","pages":"442-486"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are algorithms always fair? The study on public preferences toward algorithmic decision-making: A case study from the perspectives of decision scenarios and social roles 算法总是公平的吗？算法决策的公众偏好研究：基于决策情景和社会角色视角的案例研究
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12325
Bing Wang, Longxiang Luo, Xiuli Wang
{"title":"Are algorithms always fair? The study on public preferences toward algorithmic decision-making: A case study from the perspectives of decision scenarios and social roles","authors":"Bing Wang,&nbsp;Longxiang Luo,&nbsp;Xiuli Wang","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12325","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The integration of algorithmic decision-making into daily life gives rise to a need to understand public attitudes toward this phenomenon. This study uses online experiments to explore how decision scenarios and roles influence public preferences for algorithms. In-depth interviews were conducted to examine interpretations of algorithmic fairness. The findings indicate a preference for algorithms, yet a stronger preference for human decision-making in ethically complex scenarios. Decision-makers demonstrate greater acceptance of algorithms. Participants perceive algorithmic fairness from social and technical perspectives, emphasizing autonomy and transparency. Despite a general preference for algorithms, concerns persist, revealing a nuanced view of algorithmic fairness as a form of societal power.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 1","pages":"420-441"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Politics of local fiscal discipline with vertical fiscal imbalance 纵向财政失衡下的地方财政纪律政治
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12323
Samuel K. Obeng, Layal Aazam
{"title":"Politics of local fiscal discipline with vertical fiscal imbalance","authors":"Samuel K. Obeng,&nbsp;Layal Aazam","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12323","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the political conditions mediating the effect of vertical fiscal imbalance (VFI) on local government fiscal discipline in Ghana. Based on a panel dataset of 216 local governments in Ghana over the period 1994–2018, we adopt both a static and dynamic approach, in addition to a regression discontinuity design. From the results, while alignment may give “free pass,” local governments could leverage same for effective tax efforts. Further, the benefits of lower political competition may reduce where local governments place reliance on central government grants. There is consistent evidence of a negative effect of VFI on fiscal discipline.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 1","pages":"400-419"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecpo.12323","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
U.S. presidential approval and the macroeconomy: 1960–2022 美国总统支持率与宏观经济：1960-2022
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12322
T. Daniel Coggin
{"title":"U.S. presidential approval and the macroeconomy: 1960–2022","authors":"T. Daniel Coggin","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12322","url":null,"abstract":"<p>U.S. presidential approval is a topic that has long attracted the interest of political pundits, journalists, candidates, and academics. This study focuses on quarterly U.S. presidential approval and measures of the U.S. macroeconomy. This research will expand, update and reinvestigate this relationship using new data, additional variables and the IVX predictive regression model of Kostakis, et al. (2015), specifically developed for time series data with mixed orders of integration such as we have here. We found that (as measured by Gallup data) U.S. presidential approval is a stationary mean-reverting variable with a long-term mean of approximately 50%. Our results also suggest that presidential party and the business cycle have no impact on the mean of quarterly presidential approval as <i>standalone</i> variables. However, using a comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables in a single study, we found that macroeconomic variables make a difference in applying predictive regression models to indicate significance. Specifically, before <i>and</i> after controlling for other macroeconomic variables, political party and the business cycle, more immediate “pocketbook issues” like gasoline prices and inflation expectations are important issues to American voters' presidential approval rating. Simply put, our regression results suggest rising prices and the expectation of rising prices consistently lower presidential approval in our sample data. This is a result that will likely interest political practitioners and academics alike.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 1","pages":"376-399"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143121443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Development strategy, infrastructure, and premature deindustrialization: Comparing Asian, African, and Latin American economies 发展战略、基础设施和过早去工业化：比较亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的经济
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12319
Valeria Lauria, Justin Yifu Lin, Xin Wang, Yawen Zheng
{"title":"Development strategy, infrastructure, and premature deindustrialization: Comparing Asian, African, and Latin American economies","authors":"Valeria Lauria,&nbsp;Justin Yifu Lin,&nbsp;Xin Wang,&nbsp;Yawen Zheng","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12319","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization in developing countries, with a focus on Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, and examines why this trend primarily occurs in these regions rather than in East Asia. Through a comparative analysis of industrialization experiences across different economies since the 1960s, the paper argues that premature deindustrialization results from a combination of liberalization shocks, development strategies that defy comparative advantage, and inadequate infrastructure supply due to the lack of active state involvement in its provision driven by prevailing neoliberal ideas. This study empirically validates this hypothesis using country-sector-level data from 40 economies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"37 1","pages":"304-340"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143116154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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