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Broke Autocrats, Broken Elections: Trade Shocks and Electoral Fraud in Autocracies 破产的独裁者,失败的选举:专制国家的贸易冲击和选举舞弊
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2026-06-04 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70039
Antonis Adam, Sofia Tsarsitalidou
{"title":"Broke Autocrats, Broken Elections: Trade Shocks and Electoral Fraud in Autocracies","authors":"Antonis Adam,&nbsp;Sofia Tsarsitalidou","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We argue that when terms-of-trade (ToT) shocks reduce resource rents, autocrats lose the fiscal capacity to sustain loyalty through patronage and increasingly rely on electoral manipulation as a survival strategy. We present a simple model in which rents finance patronage in normal times, while adverse shocks reduce the effectiveness of loyalty-buying and induce substitution toward electoral manipulation. We test these implications using a panel of 114 autocracies from 1980 to 2021. Shocks are defined as ToT declines larger than 10%, and their impact is estimated on V-Dem's Clean Elections Index using a difference-in-differences design with country and year fixed effects. Results show that negative trade shocks are associated with worse electoral conditions, especially in resource-rich regimes, consistent with a shift from patronage to manipulation. These findings highlight how volatility in global markets can shape electoral strategies and authoritarian control.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 2","pages":"542-559"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecpo.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Metro Expansion Influences Enterprise Labor Misallocation 都市扩张如何影响企业劳动力错配
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2026-06-04 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70042
Mengting Zhang, Ziwen Bao, Feng Yu, Changbiao Zhong
{"title":"How Metro Expansion Influences Enterprise Labor Misallocation","authors":"Mengting Zhang,&nbsp;Ziwen Bao,&nbsp;Feng Yu,&nbsp;Changbiao Zhong","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper investigates the effect of metro expansion on enterprise labor misallocation in China, using a double machine learning (DML) model with data from A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2022. Our findings reveal that metro expansion significantly mitigates enterprises' labor misallocation. This effect is more pronounced for labor-intensive and state-owned enterprises, as well as for those located in developing urban agglomerations and regions with advanced digital infrastructure. Further mechanism analysis shows that this reduction operates through two distinct channels. On the supply side, metro networks deepen the labor market, thereby improving job-matching efficiency. On the demand side, by intensifying competition, metro expansion erodes enterprises' market power, thereby improving allocative efficiency through the realignment of wages with marginal productivity. This study provides empirical evidence at the micro level, highlighting the role of urban transit infrastructure in improving resource allocation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 2","pages":"560-574"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ideological Diversity of Legislatures and Institutional Change 立法机构的意识形态多样性与制度变迁
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2026-06-04 Epub Date: 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70029
Danko Tarabar
{"title":"Ideological Diversity of Legislatures and Institutional Change","authors":"Danko Tarabar","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper presents data on ideology-adjusted fractionalization of legislatures for an unbalanced panel of 76 countries over 1970–2019. Drawing from the V-Party database, I combine a wide variety of positions and stances of political parties with their seat shares to construct a new index of lower-chamber ideological diversity by country-year. I then employ this index to empirically explore its effect on good-for-growth regulatory reform in up to 65 countries over 2000–2019. I provide evidence of an inverse-U relationship between the magnitude of policy change and ideological fractionalization, and show that policy coherence declines as fractionalization increases. Implications for growth are discussed.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 2","pages":"378-394"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Polygyny, Western Egalitarianism, and the Relative Status of Women in Society 一夫多妻制、西方平等主义与妇女在社会中的相对地位
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2026-06-04 Epub Date: 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70028
Satoshi Kanazawa
{"title":"Polygyny, Western Egalitarianism, and the Relative Status of Women in Society","authors":"Satoshi Kanazawa","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>It is commonly believed that women experience lower relative status in polygynous societies, whereas it is mathematically the case that the average woman benefits materially (and the average man suffers reproductively) from the polygynous institution of marriage. In 1999, Kanazawa and Still hypothesized that the apparent negative correlation between polygyny and women's status was spurious and can be explained by “Western egalitarianism,” which simultaneously decreases inequality among men and thereby polygyny (according to the female choice theory of marriage institution) and decreases inequality between the sexes, thereby elevating women's status. However, their hypothesis was never empirically tested. I put Kanazawa and Still's hypothesis to an empirical test. Analyses of three widely varied international measures of gender inequality show that polygyny was not associated with women's relative status in society net of Western egalitarianism. Robustness checks confirm that the results are not unique to a specific measure of Western egalitarianism. The international data leave very little doubt that women experience lower relative status in polygynous societies, not because they are polygynous, but because they are inegalitarian and citizens (both women and men) lack civil liberties.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 2","pages":"395-405"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dividend Payment Frequency and Firm Value: Evidence From China 股利支付频率与公司价值:来自中国的证据
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2026-06-04 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70035
Chuanlu Ge, Qiyue Cui, Yuhan Bi, Linjuan Mu
{"title":"Dividend Payment Frequency and Firm Value: Evidence From China","authors":"Chuanlu Ge,&nbsp;Qiyue Cui,&nbsp;Yuhan Bi,&nbsp;Linjuan Mu","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70035","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our study investigates the effect of dividend payment frequency on firm value in China's A-share market. We hypothesize that firms with multiple dividend payments exhibit higher valuations, as more frequent payouts may mitigate agency costs, improve operating efficiency, and convey positive signals to the market. Consistent with our prediction, we find that multiple dividend payments correlate with higher firm valuation than a single payment. These results remain robust after a series of robustness tests. Additional analyses provide evidence consistent with the proposed channels. Finally, our cross-sectional analyses show that this positive effect is more pronounced in non-family firms, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and firms with lower dividend payout ratios. Collectively, our evidence suggests that dividend payment frequency is closely related to firm valuation in emerging markets characterized by a policy-driven regulatory environment.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 2","pages":"473-486"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148160815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contested Compromise: Public Policy Reforms as Share Contests 有争议的妥协:公共政策改革与股份竞争
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70024
Achim Hagen
{"title":"Contested Compromise: Public Policy Reforms as Share Contests","authors":"Achim Hagen","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Public policy reforms often benefit certain societal groups while being costly for others. Both supporters and opponents of reforms can form lobby groups to influence the policy outcome in their preferred direction. This paper presents a simple two-stage model of a public policy reform that results from the partial implementation of a policy proposal. The compromise is modeled as a share contest. I analyze the influence of lobby groups on equilibrium policies and how regulators' preferences for lobbying activities influence the policy proposal. The results show that in regimes where these activities are regarded as harmful, lobby efforts lead to modest reform proposals and equilibrium reforms, whereas in regimes where regulators favor lobbying activities the levels of reform proposal and resulting policy are higher. Interest groups that suffer costs from the reform are always better off in regimes that regard lobbying as harmful, whereas groups that profit from a reform can be better off with regulators that favor lobby contributions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 1","pages":"327-337"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecpo.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146154719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Data Elements Marketization and Corporate ESG Performance: A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on China's Data Trading Platforms Pilot Policies 数据要素市场化与企业ESG绩效:基于中国数据交易平台试点政策的准自然实验
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70023
Caishi Zhang, Fangyi Lin, Yichuan Shi
{"title":"Data Elements Marketization and Corporate ESG Performance: A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on China's Data Trading Platforms Pilot Policies","authors":"Caishi Zhang,&nbsp;Fangyi Lin,&nbsp;Yichuan Shi","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article investigates the impact of Data Element Marketization (DEM) on corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance, using a quasi-natural experiment based on China's data trading platforms pilot policies. Employing a Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework, we find that DEM significantly enhances ESG outcomes by alleviating financing constraints, promoting digital transformation, and strengthening external supervision. Our results highlight that firms with higher intangible asset intensity and those located in more marketized regions experience stronger improvements in ESG performance. Additionally, DEM also helps mitigate greenwashing behaviors. This study contributes to the understanding how market mechanisms for data circulation can drive corporate sustainability and offers policy implications for advancing DEM reforms.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 1","pages":"287-305"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146139140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Doubling Down Political Budget Cycles: The Role of State-Owned Enterprises 双重政治预算周期:国有企业的作用
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70025
Zareh Asatryan, Désirée I. Christofzik, Justus Nover
{"title":"Doubling Down Political Budget Cycles: The Role of State-Owned Enterprises","authors":"Zareh Asatryan,&nbsp;Désirée I. Christofzik,&nbsp;Justus Nover","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the degree and nature of political budget cycles in public investments when two instruments are available: investments by core governments and, more indirectly, by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). While fiscal pressure on core budgets may induce politicians to shift election-induced investments to SOEs, voters' uncertainties in clearly attributing the benefits of SOE investments to incumbent politicians may encourage the opposite. Using administrative micro-data for over 10,500 SOEs and their public owners at the municipal level in Germany, we document substantial election cycles in both instruments. This suggests that German municipal councilors use investments broadly to enhance their re-election prospects. The total effect of elections on municipal investments in our sample is over EUR 1 billion for the pre-election year in each electoral cycle, while the past literature focusing only on core budgets would miss about a third of this effect.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 1","pages":"306-326"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecpo.70025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146162354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Crime: An Asymmetric Relationship 经济政策不确定性与犯罪:一种不对称关系
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70022
Leo M. Doerr, Stefan Wilhelm
{"title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty and Crime: An Asymmetric Relationship","authors":"Leo M. Doerr,&nbsp;Stefan Wilhelm","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using a sample of US counties for the period 2010–2018, this study is the first to isolate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on crime rates. We employ an estimator that controls for joint endogeneity of regressors and find a crime inducing effect of rising uncertainty for violent crime. Complementary analyses reveal that this relationship is both asymmetric and transitory: spikes in uncertainty trigger temporary increases in crime rather than persistent level shifts, whereas declines in uncertainty fail to generate a comparable reduction. Finally, a comprehensive set of robustness checks confirms that our findings are not driven by changes in reporting behavior or uncertainty-induced shifts in policing policy, and that the main results extend to property crime as well.</p>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 1","pages":"273-286"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecpo.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146136728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Government-Guided Funds on Enterprises Innovation Quality: Evidence From China 政府引导资金对企业创新质量的影响:来自中国的证据
IF 1.4 4区 经济学
Economics & Politics Pub Date : 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.70021
Chenze Song, Zhihua Guan
{"title":"The Impact of Government-Guided Funds on Enterprises Innovation Quality: Evidence From China","authors":"Chenze Song,&nbsp;Zhihua Guan","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.70021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.70021","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the impact of China's government-guided fund policy on corporate innovation quality from a venture capital perspective. It holds significant implications for comprehensively understanding the economic effects of government venture capital and the realization of sustainable development of enterprises. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach, we analyze data from A-share-listed firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen (2008–2023) to empirically assess how government-guided funds influence enterprises innovation quality. Results show that firms receiving such investments exhibit a statistically significant improvement in their innovation quality. The effect is more pronounced among firms facing higher financing needs, including growth-stage enterprises, strategic emerging industries, and Nonpolitical connections enterprises. Mechanism analysis further reveals that government-guided funds enhance enterprises innovation quality by alleviating financing constraints and lowering agency costs.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47220,"journal":{"name":"Economics & Politics","volume":"38 1","pages":"252-272"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146139213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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