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Assessing monetary policy surprises in Japan by high frequency identification 通过高频识别评估日本货币政策意外
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101300
Fumitaka Nakamura , Nao Sudo , Yu Sugisaki
{"title":"Assessing monetary policy surprises in Japan by high frequency identification","authors":"Fumitaka Nakamura ,&nbsp;Nao Sudo ,&nbsp;Yu Sugisaki","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101300","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101300","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>The use of changes in short-term interest rates<span> (STIRs) within 30 min before and after monetary policy announcements, or so-called high-frequency identification (HFI), has been attracting attention as a method of extracting monetary policy surprises. In this paper, we use the Japanese data during the 2000s and 2010s, which includes periods when interest rates hovered around the ELB, to construct an indicator of monetary policy surprises using HFI and document its properties. We find that the </span></span>STIR futures<span> variations within 30 min around monetary policy announcements are more closely correlated with key financial variables than those outside that window. We also find that the impulse responses of macroeconomic variables to the identified shocks are overall in line with what conventional theory predicts.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101300"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138493097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tackling the risks in crypto: Choosing among bans, containment and regulation 应对加密货币的风险:在禁令、遏制和监管之间做出选择
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101286
Matteo Aquilina , Jon Frost , Andreas Schrimpf
{"title":"Tackling the risks in crypto: Choosing among bans, containment and regulation","authors":"Matteo Aquilina ,&nbsp;Jon Frost ,&nbsp;Andreas Schrimpf","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The high-profile failures of a number of crypto firms have re-ignited the debate on the appropriate policy response to address the risks in crypto. The “shadow financial” functions enabled by crypto markets share many of the vulnerabilities of traditional finance and risks are often exacerbated by specific features of crypto. Authorities may consider different, and not mutually exclusive, lines of action to tackle the risks in crypto. These include (i) bans, which could tackle specific aspects of the crypto ecosystem, (ii) containment so that the real economy is insulated from crypto risks, and (iii) the regulation of the crypto sector. The paper highlights the pros and cons of the different approaches and proposes a framework to choose when bans, containment and regulation are most appropriate. It also describes the approach taken in Japan, which has been a pioneer in tacking such risks. With each approach, central banks and public authorities can also work to make traditional financial more attractive, thereby allowing responsible innovation to thrive.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101286"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138403679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
State ownership, political connection, and innovation subsidies in China 中国的国有制、政治关系与创新补贴
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101287
Hong Cheng , Hanbing Fan , Takeo Hoshi , Dezhuang Hu
{"title":"State ownership, political connection, and innovation subsidies in China","authors":"Hong Cheng ,&nbsp;Hanbing Fan ,&nbsp;Takeo Hoshi ,&nbsp;Dezhuang Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine how a firm's political connection measured by the membership of its CEO in the People's Congress (PC) or Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) influences its likelihood of receiving the innovation subsidies given by the state. We find that politically connected firms are more likely to receive innovation subsidies. The political connection measured in this way is found much more important than state ownership in explaining the allocation of innovation subsidies. We also investigate if the firms that receive innovation subsidies are more innovative, productive, or profitable. Our results show that the firms that receive innovation subsidies file and receive more patents, but that their patents are not necessarily of high quality. They do not have higher productivity or profitability, either. The results collectively suggest politically induced inefficiency in the allocation of innovation subsidies in China.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"71 ","pages":"Article 101287"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138355980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Potential benefits and determinants of remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间远程工作的潜在好处和决定因素:来自日本家庭面板数据的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101285
Kayoko Ishii , Isamu Yamamoto , Mao Nakayama
{"title":"Potential benefits and determinants of remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data","authors":"Kayoko Ishii ,&nbsp;Isamu Yamamoto ,&nbsp;Mao Nakayama","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the impact of remote work on subjective well-being, such as subjective productivity, work engagement, and health condition, during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also identifies the characteristics of workers and jobs that contribute to the continuous implementation of remote work, using data from the “Japan Household Panel Survey (JHPS)” and “JHPS Special Survey for COVID-19 (Waves 1 and 2).” As for the characteristics of remote work, multinomial logit models indicate that remote work tends to be continuously conducted in workplaces where performance rather than hours worked is valued, flexible work arrangements are allowed, and better management practices are conducted. In addition, workers with better IT skills, those exposed to new technologies, and those engaged in abstract tasks are more likely to work remotely after the state of emergency. Regarding the impact of remote work, we conjecture that the exogenous shift to remote work due to the pandemic had a heterogeneous impact on workers. The first difference models, where unobservable time-invariant worker heterogeneity has been removed, indicate a positive impact on subjective well-being for those who continued to work remotely after the state of emergency was lifted in 2020. Those who only worked remotely as a stopgap measure during the first state of emergency experienced negative impacts of remote work.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101285"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49722089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Domestic and international effects of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment and strategic cash holdings: Evidence from Japan 经济政策不确定性对企业投资和战略现金持有的国内外影响:来自日本的证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101272
Ryosuke Fujitani , Masazumi Hattori , Yukihiro Yasuda
{"title":"Domestic and international effects of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment and strategic cash holdings: Evidence from Japan","authors":"Ryosuke Fujitani ,&nbsp;Masazumi Hattori ,&nbsp;Yukihiro Yasuda","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101272","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101272","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We empirically examine the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of which measurement methodology Baker, Bloom &amp; Davis (2016) propose on the investment and cash holding behaviors of Japanese firms. We also examine spillover effects of EPU of the United States on them. We find that Japanese firms invest less and accumulate more cash when domestic EPU increases. Impacts of subcategories of domestic EPU differs: the uncertainty of fiscal and exchange rate policies are the key drivers of the negative impacts on corporate investment although the predictive power for investment of economic policy uncertainty of exchange rate holds only in the short run. As for the international spillover, we find that economic policy uncertainty in the United States has negative spillover (contagion) effects on corporate investment in Japan. Our findings suggest that Japanese managers become more cautious in making investment decisions as a response not only to higher domestic EPU but also US EPU.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101272"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49720680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A field experiment on discrimination against foreigners in the rental housing market in Japan examining the 23 wards of Tokyo 日本出租住房市场对外国人歧视的实地实验，对东京23个区进行了调查
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101273
Takeru Sugasawa , Kei Harano
{"title":"A field experiment on discrimination against foreigners in the rental housing market in Japan examining the 23 wards of Tokyo","authors":"Takeru Sugasawa ,&nbsp;Kei Harano","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Discrimination against foreigners in rental housing markets has been recognized mainly in the U.S. and European countries. In Japan, the difficulties experienced by foreigners who move into rental housing have been reported only by media or government questionnaire surveys, and there is little quantitative evidence. We conduct a correspondence study to observe discrimination against foreigners in rental housing markets in Tokyo's 23 wards during December 2019 and February 2020. Our results show that those who use a Chinese or Korean name decrease their probability of receiving affirmative responses to rental applications by approximately 13% compared with those who use Japanese names. Additionally, we find that the COVID-19 crisis increased the discriminatory behavior of rental housing owners and realtors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101273"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49720635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unconventional monetary policy and debt sustainability in Japan 日本非常规货币政策与债务可持续性
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101274
Enrique Alberola , Gong Cheng , Andrea Consiglio , Stavros A. Zenios
{"title":"Unconventional monetary policy and debt sustainability in Japan","authors":"Enrique Alberola ,&nbsp;Gong Cheng ,&nbsp;Andrea Consiglio ,&nbsp;Stavros A. Zenios","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101274","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We adapt to the Japanese case a model of stochastic debt sustainability within a monetary policymaking framework. The model incorporates the effects of unconventional monetary policy<span> and its potential unwinding on sovereign debt dynamics. A scenario tree represents stochastic and correlated macroeconomic and fiscal variables, and a coherent risk measure allows to draw probabilistic inferences on sustainability. We calibrate the model to the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) that Bank of Japan launched in 2013. Using a retrospective analysis, we find a large favourable effect of the QQE on sovereign debt dynamics. Forward-looking simulations under different exit strategies show that the termination and unwinding of the QQE could raise debt sustainability concerns. A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could have a similar negative impact on debt dynamics, requiring a fiscal adjustment to keep debt sustainable.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101274"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49720577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel 老龄化与日本实际利率:一个劳动力市场渠道
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101262
Shigeru Fujita , Ippei Fujiwara
{"title":"Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel","authors":"Shigeru Fujita ,&nbsp;Ippei Fujiwara","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101262","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and the declining trend in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search and matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and thus the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force caused the real interest rate to decline by 1 percentage point between 1980 and 2010 in Japan.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101262"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49720677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of studying abroad on language skill development: Regression discontinuity evidence from Japanese university students 留学对语言技能发展的影响:来自日本大学生的非连续性回归证据
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101284
Yuki Higuchi , Makiko Nakamuro , Carsten Roever , Miyuki Sasaki , Tomoko Yashima
{"title":"Impact of studying abroad on language skill development: Regression discontinuity evidence from Japanese university students","authors":"Yuki Higuchi ,&nbsp;Makiko Nakamuro ,&nbsp;Carsten Roever ,&nbsp;Miyuki Sasaki ,&nbsp;Tomoko Yashima","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The importance of English communication skills has increased with globalization, and governments in various countries have encouraged students to go abroad. However, the causal impact of studying abroad has rarely been investigated, particularly in non-European countries. This study adopted a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD) for the flagship scholarship program of the Japanese government for youth studying abroad. We found that scholarships significantly increased the probability of studying abroad by 77–80 points. We measured English proficiency using a multiple-choice test we originally developed and found that studying abroad increased English proficiency by 33–38% (or 1.15–1.35 standard deviation). We also found that studying abroad significantly improved their international posture and perceived communication competence in a foreign language, which are the two traits found to be important determinants of future development in language ability in applied linguistics literature.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101284"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49722083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Information effects of monetary policy 货币政策的信息效应
IF 2.9 3区 经济学
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101276
Yusuke Tanahara, Kento Tango, Yoshiyuki Nakazono
{"title":"Information effects of monetary policy","authors":"Yusuke Tanahara,&nbsp;Kento Tango,&nbsp;Yoshiyuki Nakazono","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101276","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>This study assesses two central bank announcements about monetary policy<span> and the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook. We examine whether these two components influence macroeconomic and financial variables under the effective lower bound (ELB) of short-term nominal </span></span>interest rates in Japan. We identify two shocks: a surprise policy tightening that raises interest rates and reduces stock prices and the complementary positive central bank information shock that raises both. We find that the two shocks have different effects on the Japanese economy. In fact, a contractionary monetary policy shock decreases inflation rates, whereas a positive central bank information shock </span><em>increases</em> inflation rates. The evidence suggests that announcements conveying the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook play a certain role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy under the ELB. However, our study shows that the two series of shocks do not induce changes in output. This suggests that they have a limited impact on the economy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"70 ","pages":"Article 101276"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49721719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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