The effect of regional import shocks on job flows in Japanese manufacturing establishments

Abstract

Using a dataset of all Japanese manufacturing establishments in 2006 and 2016 and industry- and region-level import shocks, this study examined the impact of the China Shock on the job flows of establishments. Regression analyses found that the industry-level import shock increased the probability of exiting in only a few groups. Interestingly, small establishments in single-unit firms located in non-agglomerated regions adopted a hibernation strategy to cope with the region-level import shock. Furthermore, surviving establishments in this category accelerated both job creation and destruction in response to these two import shocks, thereby amplifying the overall magnitude of job flows. These results became observable owing to the use of establishment-level observations and a detailed classification of job flows.