{"title":"Do class closures affect students’ achievements? Heterogeneous effects of students’ socioeconomic backgrounds","authors":"Masato Oikawa , Ryuichi Tanaka , Shun-ichiro Bessho , Akira Kawamura , Haruko Noguchi","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101387","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101387","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of class closures on the academic achievement of primary and middle school students, with a particular focus on heterogeneous effects related to their household socioeconomic backgrounds. Using administrative data from students in a Japanese city within the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, we analyze the effects of class closures due to influenza epidemics on students’ language and mathematics test scores. Our findings indicate that class closures adversely affect the mathematics test scores of economically disadvantaged students. The magnitude of these negative effects on disadvantaged students varies by subject, grade level, gender, the timing of closures, and students’ prior academic achievement. In particular, male students from economically disadvantaged households are more susceptible to class closures, and those with lower prior academic achievement experience more severe adverse effects. These deleterious effects among economically disadvantaged male students appear to be driven not only by reductions in in-school instructional time but also by behavioral changes that may diminish their learning capacity. Furthermore, we find that high-quality teachers can mitigate the negative impact of class closures on economically disadvantaged students. These results highlight the importance of public programs designed to safeguard student learning environments against such adverse disruptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101387"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pension reform for an aging Japan: Welfare and demographic dynamics","authors":"Akira Okamoto","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101390","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101390","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Japan’s life expectancy exceeds that of other developed countries; however, the standard starting age for receiving public pension benefits remains at 65 years. This paper uses an extended lifecycle general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility to investigate how a higher starting age for pension benefits affects individual welfare and future demographic dynamics. Our simulation analysis indicates that per-capita welfare will increase if the starting age for pension benefits is raised to 68 or 70. The higher the employment rate of individuals aged 65 and older, the higher are the per-capita welfare and the future population level. Conversely, if the employment rate for older adults remains at 52% (Japan’s current level), the total population would decrease in the long run compared with the benchmark case with a starting age of 65 for pension benefits. The findings demonstrate the importance of enhancing the employment rate of older adults while raising the standard pensionable age in Japan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101390"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144989474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Labor market outcomes for doctoral graduates in Japan: Evidence from a large statistical survey","authors":"Masayuki Morikawa","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid growing concerns about Japan’s declining research capability, policies to support doctoral human resources are actively discussed and implemented. This study uses micro data from the 2022 Employment Status Survey to document the labor market outcomes of postgraduates, distinguishing doctoral and master’s graduates. According to the analysis, first, the employment rate of doctoral graduates is higher than that of master’s graduates, with the difference particularly pronounced among females. Second, on average, doctoral graduates are paid 40% more than master’s graduates, and the proportion of low-wage workers is smaller among doctoral graduates compared to those with a master’s or four-year university education. Third, when controlling for detailed industries and occupations, the wage difference between doctoral and master’s graduates reduces to about 10%, suggesting that doctoral graduates tend to self-select into higher-paying jobs. Fourth, the discounted present value of lifetime earnings is estimated to be 17% higher for male and 36% higher for female doctoral graduates compared to master’s graduates. Based on some assumptions, the internal rate of return on investment in doctoral education is estimated at around 10% for both males and females.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101389"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144933726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A cross-industrial analysis on the task content of trade","authors":"Sawako Maruyama","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101379","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper estimates the task content of trade for Japanese manufacturing in terms of the number of employees using Japanese Input–Output (IO) Tables. The purpose of this paper is to examine the cross-industrial differences in the task content of trade and to reveal their determinants through descriptive and empirical analyses. For the estimation, the composite task index is calculated for five task categories. From the descriptive analysis, it is found that labour-intensive sectors with low technology tend to have relatively large imports of routine manual tasks. Another finding is that only machinery sectors have a trade surplus in terms of the task content of trade, whereas the trade deficit of routine manual tasks tends to be large in labour-intensive sectors. In addition, empirical results reveal that the industrial characteristics and the occupational structure explain the difference in the task content of trade by sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101379"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"CEO skill and firm performance","authors":"Katsuyuki Kubo , Takuya Kiriu , Shigeru Uchigasaki , Susumu Seko , Hiroaki Yamauchi","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101380","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101380","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to analyze the impact of top managers’ skills on firm performance, particularly emphasizing their previous tenure in CEO positions in other firms. We assume that managers with previous managerial experience in other firms possess management skills. The study analyzes changes in the performance of firms that experience managerial turnover from managers without managerial skills to those who possess them, using propensity score matching with a difference-in-difference approach. We confirm that turnover from managers without management skills to those who possess them results in better performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101380"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Japan's inflation under global inflation synchronization","authors":"Ichiro Fukunaga , Yosuke Kido , Kotaro Suita","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101368","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101368","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we analyze the effects of domestic and global factors on Japan's consumer price inflation, inflation expectations and nominal wages from the late 1990s to the post-pandemic period, using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models with short- and long-run zero and sign restrictions. We find that global shocks, including global supply, demand, and monetary policy shocks, account for about 40 % and 30 % of variance in four-quarter-ahead headline (excluding fresh food) and core inflation, respectively, and the importance of global shocks increases when post-pandemic data are included. Historical decompositions show that various types of global shocks, including downward cost pressure due to globalization reflected in positive global supply shocks, had persistently pushed down Japan’s consumer price inflation until the late 2010s. Subsequently, their contribution turned positive, both global supply and demand shocks significantly pushing up inflation, especially in the high-inflation phase after the pandemic. In addition, we find that services prices and nominal wages were also pushed up significantly by global shocks in the post-pandemic period.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101368"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Digital labor platform under the boom and bust: Bank account data insights","authors":"Sachiko Kuroda , Koichiro Onishi","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study uses deidentified bank data from a Japanese megabank to analyze how the economic downturn affected labor supply in the platform economy. Specifically, we identify gig workers based on deposit information from food delivery platform services and examine changes in their labor supply before and after the pandemic. Individuals who take on food delivery gig work typically exhibit three characteristics: they are predominantly young, male, and have low liquidity. About 32 percent of these workers had liquidity below zero, excluding gig income, and 27 % had liquidity below 50,000 yen (approximately 335 USD), indicating that many face severe liquidity constraints. Additionally, liquidity tends to gradually decline in the months leading up to gig work. While there is an increased probability of entering the gig market, the likelihood of workers staying drops to 60–70 % in the first month, suggesting the gig market serves mainly as a temporary income-smoothing mechanism. Interestingly, the average liquidity balance in the first month for those who started gig work during the COVID-19 recession was higher than for those who began gig work during the pre-pandemic boom. In addition, the decline in liquidity before starting gig work was smaller during the COVID-19 recession compared to the pre-COVID boom. Although it was expected that participation during the downturn would be driven by those facing liquidity constraints, the data shows that even individuals with some financial leeway entered the gig market during recessions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101378"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Short-run and long-run consequences of unconventional monetary policy in Japan","authors":"Shin-ichi Fukuda","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101375","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monetary policy is a powerful policy tool in stabilizing short-term economic fluctuations. However, no matter how effective it is, it could have unintended adverse impacts on the economy if the central bank continued extreme monetary easing over a long period of time. Japan is an exceptional country where such concern exists. This paper analyzes the effects of unconventional monetary policy in Japan since the end of the 1990s. We explore the effects not only on stabilizing short-term macroeconomic fluctuations such as the GDP gap, but also on medium- and long-term productivity such as total factor productivity (TFP). If the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment distorts the price mechanism and causes misallocation of funds, the unconventional monetary policy could reduce the productivity of the economy. The estimation results show that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s unconventional monetary policy had a significant positive impact on the GDP gap even under a liquidity trap where the policy rate hit its effective lower bound (ELB). However, they also show that unconventional monetary policy had a significant negative impact on TFP growth. The results suggest that while unconventional monetary policy was effective in boosting the economy in the short term, the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment may have had a negative impact on medium- and long-term productivity growth in the Japanese economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101375"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144189856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Entrepreneurship of the ice age cohorts","authors":"Akira Fukuda","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101367","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101367","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A cohort that struggles to enter the labor market during economic downturns may struggle to secure stable employment and income throughout their lives. The “Ice Age” cohorts are ones that entered the Japanese labor market during the prolonged economic recession between 1993 and 2004. This study examines the performance of startups established by the Ice Age cohorts. With limited job opportunities, some Ice Age cohorts likely attempted to start their businesses as an alternative means of income. Using a panel survey of startups, we examine the performance of such attempts. Startups established by the Ice Age cohorts had significantly higher survival rates than those established by the “bubble” cohorts that entered the labor market during the economic boom. However, among the surviving startups, those established by the Ice Age cohorts with junior college or vocational school backgrounds underperform relative to the bubble cohorts. These results suggest that the Ice Age cohorts faced limited employment opportunities in the labor market upon entry and were forced to continue operating their businesses under suboptimal performance conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101367"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on foreign direct investment from China, the United States, and major investor countries","authors":"Yasuyuki Todo , Shuhei Nishitateno , Sean Brown","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101365","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101365","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and other major source countries, such as the United States (US), France, and Japan, by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID) event study estimations to a gravity model. In addition to estimations using country-pair fixed effects, we estimate models with source and host country-year fixed effects to control for the effect through changes in any host country attribute due to the BRI, such as infrastructure, and highlight the effect through changes in bilateral relationships. We find that FDI from China, Hong Kong SAR, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and France to BRI countries increased in the post-BRI period, whereas FDI from the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, and Luxembourg decreased. After controlling for country-year fixed effects, there remains a post-BRI upward trend in FDI from the US, Switzerland, and France and a downward trend in FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. These findings suggest that FDI from non-China countries to BRI countries can be affected by their bilateral relationships. For example, the US may have invested more in BRI countries to strategically compete with China in those locations, whereas France and Switzerland may have done so because of investment cooperation with China in Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101365"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143923792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}