Journal of the Japanese and International Economies最新文献

Japan's inflation under global inflation synchronization 全球通胀同步下的日本通胀

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101368

Ichiro Fukunaga , Yosuke Kido , Kotaro Suita

{"title":"Japan's inflation under global inflation synchronization","authors":"Ichiro Fukunaga , Yosuke Kido , Kotaro Suita","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101368","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101368","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we analyze the effects of domestic and global factors on Japan's consumer price inflation, inflation expectations and nominal wages from the late 1990s to the post-pandemic period, using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models with short- and long-run zero and sign restrictions. We find that global shocks, including global supply, demand, and monetary policy shocks, account for about 40 % and 30 % of variance in four-quarter-ahead headline (excluding fresh food) and core inflation, respectively, and the importance of global shocks increases when post-pandemic data are included. Historical decompositions show that various types of global shocks, including downward cost pressure due to globalization reflected in positive global supply shocks, had persistently pushed down Japan’s consumer price inflation until the late 2010s. Subsequently, their contribution turned positive, both global supply and demand shocks significantly pushing up inflation, especially in the high-inflation phase after the pandemic. In addition, we find that services prices and nominal wages were also pushed up significantly by global shocks in the post-pandemic period.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101368"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital labor platform under the boom and bust: Bank account data insights 盛衰下的数字劳动力平台：银行账户数据洞察

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101378

Sachiko Kuroda , Koichiro Onishi

{"title":"Digital labor platform under the boom and bust: Bank account data insights","authors":"Sachiko Kuroda , Koichiro Onishi","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study uses deidentified bank data from a Japanese megabank to analyze how the economic downturn affected labor supply in the platform economy. Specifically, we identify gig workers based on deposit information from food delivery platform services and examine changes in their labor supply before and after the pandemic. Individuals who take on food delivery gig work typically exhibit three characteristics: they are predominantly young, male, and have low liquidity. About 32 percent of these workers had liquidity below zero, excluding gig income, and 27 % had liquidity below 50,000 yen (approximately 335 USD), indicating that many face severe liquidity constraints. Additionally, liquidity tends to gradually decline in the months leading up to gig work. While there is an increased probability of entering the gig market, the likelihood of workers staying drops to 60–70 % in the first month, suggesting the gig market serves mainly as a temporary income-smoothing mechanism. Interestingly, the average liquidity balance in the first month for those who started gig work during the COVID-19 recession was higher than for those who began gig work during the pre-pandemic boom. In addition, the decline in liquidity before starting gig work was smaller during the COVID-19 recession compared to the pre-COVID boom. Although it was expected that participation during the downturn would be driven by those facing liquidity constraints, the data shows that even individuals with some financial leeway entered the gig market during recessions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101378"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Short-run and long-run consequences of unconventional monetary policy in Japan 日本非常规货币政策的短期和长期后果

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101375

Shin-ichi Fukuda

{"title":"Short-run and long-run consequences of unconventional monetary policy in Japan","authors":"Shin-ichi Fukuda","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101375","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monetary policy is a powerful policy tool in stabilizing short-term economic fluctuations. However, no matter how effective it is, it could have unintended adverse impacts on the economy if the central bank continued extreme monetary easing over a long period of time. Japan is an exceptional country where such concern exists. This paper analyzes the effects of unconventional monetary policy in Japan since the end of the 1990s. We explore the effects not only on stabilizing short-term macroeconomic fluctuations such as the GDP gap, but also on medium- and long-term productivity such as total factor productivity (TFP). If the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment distorts the price mechanism and causes misallocation of funds, the unconventional monetary policy could reduce the productivity of the economy. The estimation results show that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s unconventional monetary policy had a significant positive impact on the GDP gap even under a liquidity trap where the policy rate hit its effective lower bound (ELB). However, they also show that unconventional monetary policy had a significant negative impact on TFP growth. The results suggest that while unconventional monetary policy was effective in boosting the economy in the short term, the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment may have had a negative impact on medium- and long-term productivity growth in the Japanese economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101375"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144189856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Entrepreneurship of the ice age cohorts 冰河时代同辈的企业家精神

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101367

Akira Fukuda

引用次数: 0

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on foreign direct investment from China, the United States, and major investor countries “一带一路”倡议对中国、美国和主要投资国外国直接投资的影响

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101365

Yasuyuki Todo , Shuhei Nishitateno , Sean Brown

{"title":"The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on foreign direct investment from China, the United States, and major investor countries","authors":"Yasuyuki Todo , Shuhei Nishitateno , Sean Brown","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101365","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101365","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and other major source countries, such as the United States (US), France, and Japan, by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID) event study estimations to a gravity model. In addition to estimations using country-pair fixed effects, we estimate models with source and host country-year fixed effects to control for the effect through changes in any host country attribute due to the BRI, such as infrastructure, and highlight the effect through changes in bilateral relationships. We find that FDI from China, Hong Kong SAR, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and France to BRI countries increased in the post-BRI period, whereas FDI from the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, and Luxembourg decreased. After controlling for country-year fixed effects, there remains a post-BRI upward trend in FDI from the US, Switzerland, and France and a downward trend in FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. These findings suggest that FDI from non-China countries to BRI countries can be affected by their bilateral relationships. For example, the US may have invested more in BRI countries to strategically compete with China in those locations, whereas France and Switzerland may have done so because of investment cooperation with China in Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101365"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143923792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The trade effects of export control regulations in Japan 日本出口管制条例对贸易的影响

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101366

Kazunobu HAYAKAWA , Fukunari KIMURA , Kenta YAMANOUCHI

{"title":"The trade effects of export control regulations in Japan","authors":"Kazunobu HAYAKAWA , Fukunari KIMURA , Kenta YAMANOUCHI","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101366","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101366","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent geopolitical tensions have generated various uncertainties in cross-border economic activities. A major concern is how far export control regulations by the US and its allies would decouple supply chains. This study empirically investigates the trade effects of export control regulations by Japan initiated on July 23, 2023. The regulations restrict exports of 22 items of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) and one item of semiconductor inspection equipment (SIE), implicitly focusing on Japan’s exports to China. Our empirical analysis employs the monthly data of Japanese exports and Chinese imports. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, the export restrictions significantly decreased exports of some SME products from Japan to China but increased those of some other SME products. Second, we found insignificant changes in the exports of SIE from Japan to China when controlling for various elements in China, but those exports were found to increase significantly when controlling for various elements in Japan. These results suggest that when we empirically examine the trade effect of export control regulations against China, it is crucially important to use the trade statistics at the finest product level possible and to control for confounding factors in China as much as possible.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101366"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143918160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cross-border technology licensing with R&D Opportunity and Government Intervention 具有研发机会的跨境技术许可与政府干预

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101364

Jota Ishikawa , Toshihiro Okubo

引用次数: 0

The impact of flooding on real estate transactions in densely populated areas: Evidence from the 2019 Typhoon Hagibis in Japan 洪水对人口稠密地区房地产交易的影响：来自 2019 年日本台风 "哈吉比斯 "的证据

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101363

Ikuto Aiba , Daisuke Hasegawa

引用次数: 0

Bank–firm relationships and the value of cash: Evidence from the financial crisis in Japan 银行-公司关系和现金价值：来自日本金融危机的证据

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101362

Mana Kaneko , Toshinori Sasaki , Katsushi Suzuki

引用次数: 0

Optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap: Evaluations for Japan’s monetary policy 流动性陷阱中的最优货币政策：对日本货币政策的评价

IF 2.6 3区经济学

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101361

Kohei Hasui , Yuki Teranishi

{"title":"Optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap: Evaluations for Japan’s monetary policy","authors":"Kohei Hasui , Yuki Teranishi","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101361","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101361","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper shows (1) a positive analysis demonstrating that recent high inflation rates can be explained by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s monetary policy for the COVID-19 pandemic period, “Inflation-Overshooting Commitment,” and (2) a normative analysis showing that the BOJ’s inflation-overshooting commitment aligns with the optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap within a new Keynesian model with inflation persistence. In detail, we calibrate a hybrid new Keynesian model by Japanese parameters and show optimal monetary policy under commitment. Optimal monetary policy prolongs the zero interest rate until the second quarter of 2024 even after inflation rates overshoot 2 percent. Similarly, the BOJ continues the zero interest rate policy until the second quarter of 2024. The current average inflation rates from 2023Q4 to 2024Q3 reach 2.6 percent and 2.5 percent in the data and the model, respectively.</div><div>Our conclusion holds for a variety of situations with Japanese parameters, such as a low output gap response to the real interest rate, discounted IS curve, alternative inflation persistences, interest-rate smoothing for the policy rate, an alternative specification of the Phillips curve, inflation target, and low/high anchored inflation expectations and natural interest rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101361"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0