The trade effects of export control regulations in Japan

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI:10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101366

Kazunobu HAYAKAWA , Fukunari KIMURA , Kenta YAMANOUCHI

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Recent geopolitical tensions have generated various uncertainties in cross-border economic activities. A major concern is how far export control regulations by the US and its allies would decouple supply chains. This study empirically investigates the trade effects of export control regulations by Japan initiated on July 23, 2023. The regulations restrict exports of 22 items of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) and one item of semiconductor inspection equipment (SIE), implicitly focusing on Japan’s exports to China. Our empirical analysis employs the monthly data of Japanese exports and Chinese imports. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, the export restrictions significantly decreased exports of some SME products from Japan to China but increased those of some other SME products. Second, we found insignificant changes in the exports of SIE from Japan to China when controlling for various elements in China, but those exports were found to increase significantly when controlling for various elements in Japan. These results suggest that when we empirically examine the trade effect of export control regulations against China, it is crucially important to use the trade statistics at the finest product level possible and to control for confounding factors in China as much as possible.

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日本出口管制条例对贸易的影响

最近的地缘政治紧张局势给跨境经济活动带来了各种不确定性。一个主要的担忧是，美国及其盟国的出口管制法规将在多大程度上使供应链脱钩。本研究实证考察了日本于2023年7月23日启动的出口管制法规对贸易的影响。该规定限制了22种半导体制造设备（SME）和1种半导体检测设备（SIE）的出口，暗示了日本对中国的出口。我们的实证分析采用了日本出口和中国进口的月度数据。我们的研究结果可以总结如下。首先，出口限制显著减少了日本部分中小企业产品对中国的出口，但增加了其他一些中小企业产品的出口。其次，在控制了中国的各种因素后，我们发现日本对中国的SIE出口变化不显著，但在控制了日本的各种因素后，我们发现出口显著增加。这些结果表明，当我们实证检验出口管制法规对中国的贸易影响时，使用尽可能精细的产品水平的贸易统计数据并尽可能控制中国的混杂因素至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Multiple-

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

6.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.