“一带一路”倡议对中国、美国和主要投资国外国直接投资的影响

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Yasuyuki Todo , Shuhei Nishitateno , Sean Brown
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文通过将交错差中差(DID)事件研究估计应用于重力模型,研究了“一带一路”倡议(BRI)对中国和其他主要来源国(如美国、法国和日本)外国直接投资(FDI)的影响。除了使用国家对固定效应进行估计外,我们还使用来源和东道国-年固定效应来估计模型,以控制因“一带一路”而导致的东道国任何属性(如基础设施)变化的影响,并通过双边关系的变化来强调这种影响。我们发现,中国、香港特别行政区、美国、瑞士、日本和法国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资在“一带一路”之后有所增加,而英国、荷兰和卢森堡的直接投资则有所减少。在控制了国家-年份固定效应后,美国、瑞士和法国的外国直接投资在“一带一路”倡议后仍呈上升趋势,而英国、荷兰和卢森堡的外国直接投资呈下降趋势。这些发现表明,非中国国家对“一带一路”国家的FDI会受到双边关系的影响。例如,美国可能在“一带一路”沿线国家投资更多,以便在这些地区与中国进行战略竞争,而法国和瑞士可能是因为与中国在非洲的投资合作而这样做。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on foreign direct investment from China, the United States, and major investor countries
This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and other major source countries, such as the United States (US), France, and Japan, by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID) event study estimations to a gravity model. In addition to estimations using country-pair fixed effects, we estimate models with source and host country-year fixed effects to control for the effect through changes in any host country attribute due to the BRI, such as infrastructure, and highlight the effect through changes in bilateral relationships. We find that FDI from China, Hong Kong SAR, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and France to BRI countries increased in the post-BRI period, whereas FDI from the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, and Luxembourg decreased. After controlling for country-year fixed effects, there remains a post-BRI upward trend in FDI from the US, Switzerland, and France and a downward trend in FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. These findings suggest that FDI from non-China countries to BRI countries can be affected by their bilateral relationships. For example, the US may have invested more in BRI countries to strategically compete with China in those locations, whereas France and Switzerland may have done so because of investment cooperation with China in Africa.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.
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