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Relationship between firm value, environment, social, and governance – Strengths and controversies 企业价值、环境、社会与治理的关系——优势与争议
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101238
Anita Mendiratta , Shveta Singh , Surendra S. Yadav , Arvind Mahajan
{"title":"Relationship between firm value, environment, social, and governance – Strengths and controversies","authors":"Anita Mendiratta ,&nbsp;Shveta Singh ,&nbsp;Surendra S. Yadav ,&nbsp;Arvind Mahajan","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101238","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2026.101238","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies only examined one or two two-way relationships among firm value (FV), environmental, social, and governance strengths (ESG), and ESG controversies (ESG contro). We analyze all three: 1) ESG and FV, 2) ESG contro and FV, and 3) ESG and ESG contro. Using 688 observations from 2008 to 2018 of Indian firms, we determine the optimal lag order, cross-sectional dependence (CD), and stationarity for a panel vector autoregressive (panel VAR) model with system generalized method of moments (GMM). We confirm results with Instrumental Variables - Two-Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS). First, we examine a bi-directional relationship between ESG and FV; however, we find a unidirectional association that supports good management. Second, we confirm the bidirectionality of ESG contro and FV, suggesting a virtuous circle. A decrease in prior ESG contro enhances FV; then, FV surge lessens ESG contro. Our results also reflect that the firms either augment ESG or diminish ESG contro to enhance their FV eventually. Finally, we confirm the bidirectionality of ESG contro–ESG. We confirm that ESG is not invested until earlier ESG contro has increased, supporting the moral cleansing. Regarding past ESG influencing ESG contro, we highlight the unsolved licensing-consistency puzzle in the literature. Initially, our paper also finds contradictory results. Our panel VAR estimates support moral consistency, while IV-2SLS supports moral licensing. Therefore, we investigate the critical conditions under which firms exhibit moral consistency or moral licensing. We find that firms that do not receive CR awards exhibit moral consistency, while those that do receive CR awards exhibit moral licensing. Thus, it is the first study to examine all three kinds of bidirectional links between ESG, ESG contro, and FV, as well as the role of CR awards in resolving the moral licensing-consistency puzzle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101238"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146173098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multivariate crash risk and worldwide stock returns 多元崩盘风险与全球股票收益
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101230
Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Vuong Thao Tran, Angel Zhong
{"title":"Multivariate crash risk and worldwide stock returns","authors":"Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick,&nbsp;Vuong Thao Tran,&nbsp;Angel Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101230","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101230","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the pricing of multivariate crash risk (MCRASH), which measures the conditional probability that a stock crashes when one or more systematic risk factors crash. Using data from 48 countries between 1992 and 2021, we show that MCRASH is a robust predictor of expected stock returns. The premium is stronger in emerging markets and concentrated in cyclical industries, consistent with differences in institutional quality, earnings cyclicality, and macroeconomic exposure. We also document that cultural dimensions condition the pricing of MCRASH. Individualism and uncertainty avoidance strengthen the premium, trust dampens it, and power distance intensifies it during high-volatility states. These results highlight the state-dependent role of culture in shaping investor responses to systemic risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101230"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Green interactions and corporate climate risk exposure: Evidence from China's investor-firm digital interactive platforms 绿色互动与企业气候风险暴露:来自中国投资者-公司数字互动平台的证据
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101229
Silu Pang, Chunlin Cheng, Yihan Han, Guihong Hua
{"title":"Green interactions and corporate climate risk exposure: Evidence from China's investor-firm digital interactive platforms","authors":"Silu Pang,&nbsp;Chunlin Cheng,&nbsp;Yihan Han,&nbsp;Guihong Hua","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101229","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101229","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Retail investors' green interactions—their oversight and recommendations on corporate climate risks through official interactive platforms—have become a growing informal governance mechanism as climate change gains global prominence. Drawing on social exchange theory, this study examines how such interactions between retail investors and listed firms influence corporate climate risk exposure (CRE). Using data from China's investor-firm interactive platforms covering 1798 firms from 2014 to 2022, we find that green interactions significantly reduce CRE, with stronger effects among firms exhibiting higher social responsibility conformity and larger retail investor bases. Advocacy-oriented and information-oriented messages are most effective, and their impact is amplified by firms' response quality. We identify three mechanisms behind this relationship: heightened climate risk perception, lower information transmission costs, and strengthened investor trust. These findings deepen understanding of retail investor activism in corporate climate governance and offer insights for integrating grassroots engagement into climate policy and financial regulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101229"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Equity premium prediction: A constraint-based predictor decomposition approach 股票溢价预测:一种基于约束的预测因子分解方法
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101199
Ying Yuan , Yong Qu , Sijia Qiao
{"title":"Equity premium prediction: A constraint-based predictor decomposition approach","authors":"Ying Yuan ,&nbsp;Yong Qu ,&nbsp;Sijia Qiao","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a constraint-based predictor decomposition approach that exploits predictive information in commonly used predictors to improve equity premium forecasts. The approach identifies and quantifies unexpected changes as deviation tendency while bounding values to capture central tendency. Predictions from the two tendencies are then synthesized. Empirical analysis shows this approach outperforms existing methods, producing statistically and economically significant out-of-sample results. These findings validate the ability of our approach to capture both tendencies. We also extend the analysis to multivariate prediction, where results consistently confirm its superiority. Finally, robustness tests and additional analyses demonstrate that the approach delivers stable and reliable forecasting performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101199"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI strategies for financial inclusion and gender equality in MENAT: Evidence from Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE 中东和北非地区促进金融包容性和性别平等的人工智能战略:来自埃及、土耳其和阿联酋的证据
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101181
Merih Angın, Eylem Güner, Pelin Kılınçarslan
{"title":"AI strategies for financial inclusion and gender equality in MENAT: Evidence from Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE","authors":"Merih Angın,&nbsp;Eylem Güner,&nbsp;Pelin Kılınçarslan","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101181","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101181","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite widespread artificial intelligence (AI) and financial-inclusion strategies across Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey (MENAT) countries, their implications for gender equality remain underexplored. This study bridges this gap by employing natural language processing techniques, specifically a RoBERTa model fine-tuned for Sustainable Development Goal 5 (Gender Equality), to analyze publicly available national AI strategy documents from MENAT countries. Our high-accuracy thematic classification reveals substantial variation in countries' approaches to gender-focused financial inclusion. Through an in-depth comparative assessment of Egypt, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), we find distinct approaches: the UAE demonstrates strong AI readiness yet limited focus on socio-economic inclusivity, Turkey shows moderate attention to integrating gender in financial inclusion, and Egypt, despite ambitious goals, faces significant implementation challenges. These findings underscore the diverse challenges and opportunities in leveraging AI to enhance financial inclusion and empower women, reflecting varied socio-economic priorities and execution capacities across the MENAT region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101181"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nonparametric identification of factors for the cross-section of Latin American stock returns 拉丁美洲股票收益横截面因素的非参数识别
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101172
Simón Zuluaga-Rendón , Diego A. Agudelo
{"title":"Nonparametric identification of factors for the cross-section of Latin American stock returns","authors":"Simón Zuluaga-Rendón ,&nbsp;Diego A. Agudelo","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Factor Investing, a widely recognized investment approach, remains relatively underexplored in Latin American stock markets. This study investigates the determinants of stock returns in Latin America employing the Group Adaptive Elastic Net within a nonparametric framework from 2000 to 2020. Initially assessing 34 widely recognized financial factors, our analysis identifies that a set of six factors captures most of the variance in cross-sectional returns in the proposed model: Volatility, Assets-to-Market ratio, Cash Flow to Price, Earnings to Price, Intermediate Momentum, and Turnover. Furthermore, an active Factor Investing strategy derived from this framework demonstrates substantial outperformance relative to a benchmark index in out-of-sample testing. Overall, we find evidence of short-term predictability of returns in Latin American stocks based on nonlinear and dynamic factor effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101172"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Walking quietly: Fiduciary waivers and blockholder exit 悄无声息地走着:受托人豁免和大股东退出
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101196
Pouyan Foroughi
{"title":"Walking quietly: Fiduciary waivers and blockholder exit","authors":"Pouyan Foroughi","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Corporate opportunity waivers let directors pursue outside ventures, weakening the duty of loyalty that supports investor confidence. Exploiting staggered state adoptions of these statutes from 2000 to 2018, we examine how blockholders, the market’s main bulwark against self-dealing, react. Public governance signals barely change; support for management proposals slips by less than one percentage point, failed director elections fall, and friendly hedge fund activism fades. Once scrutiny shifts toward the potential outcomes of private monitoring, a strikingly different picture emerges, as larger firms experience more frequent departures of independent directors, activists who once cooperated with management adopt confrontational tactics, and long-horizon investors pare their stakes, especially where diversion prospects are very high, analyst coverage is extensive, and boards are larger. Loosening fiduciary standards, therefore, gradually weakens shareholder oversight, eroding a critical governance mechanism and placing long-term firm value at risk, despite initial market optimism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101196"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seeing is believing: Forecasting oil market returns with artificial intelligence-powered visual climate change perception 眼见为实:利用人工智能驱动的视觉气候变化感知预测石油市场回报
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101174
Dan Liu
{"title":"Seeing is believing: Forecasting oil market returns with artificial intelligence-powered visual climate change perception","authors":"Dan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes a novel framework for forecasting oil market returns by quantifying climate change perception based on visual media. A vision-language model processes 746,435 news images from <em>The New York Times</em> between May 2006 and December 2023 to construct the Visual Climate Change Perception Index (VCCP), along with two sub-indices. The VCCP exhibits significant predictive power for one-month-ahead WTI spot returns, outperforming text-based climate sentiment and macroeconomic benchmarks. The Physical Climate Impact Visual Index contributes to short-term return predictability, while the Transitional Climate Policy Visual Index captures longer-horizon dynamics. Out-of-sample analyses confirm the robustness and economic relevance of VCCP-based models, enhancing forecast accuracy and improving asset allocation performance. These findings underscore the role of emotionally salient visual cues in shaping market expectations and highlight the importance of multimodal climate signals in the pricing of high-carbon assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101174"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign fiscal capacity, implicit subsidies, and bank value 主权财政能力、隐性补贴和银行价值
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101197
Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos, Rafael Schiozer
{"title":"Sovereign fiscal capacity, implicit subsidies, and bank value","authors":"Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos,&nbsp;Rafael Schiozer","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101197","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101197","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how fiscal constraints affect banks' market value in a cross-country sample, using exogenous variations in fiscal constraints based on abnormal military spending. Increased fiscal constraints arising from exogenous spending shocks can affect bank valuation through two different channels with opposing expected effects: spending shocks weaken governments' ability to stabilize the financial system during crises, resulting in lower bank valuation; however, when fiscal constraints are heightened because of positive sector-specific spending shocks (increased military expenditure), corporate earnings—particularly in sectors that are heavily dependent on government contracts—become more predictable, which subsequently reduces banks' earnings volatility, thereby increasing their valuation. We find that fiscal constraints negatively impact banks' valuation, which is consistent with the first channel (i.e., owing to the reduced proportion of banks' value composed by implicit or explicit governmental guarantees). In addition, bank resolution reforms adopted after the global financial crisis attenuate this relationship, but do not completely eliminate it. The sovereign–bank nexus remains relevant and concentrated in large banks. Our inferences provide insights in favor of strengthening bank resolution frameworks, to reduce banks' reliance on governmental funds and ensure bailouts occur only when welfare-enhancing. By limiting expectations of unconditional government support, these regulations may mitigate too-big-to-fail perceptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101197"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does climate risk influence exchange rates? 气候风险会影响汇率吗?
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203
Yu Ma , Wenxia Zhao , Zijun Ding
{"title":"Does climate risk influence exchange rates?","authors":"Yu Ma ,&nbsp;Wenxia Zhao ,&nbsp;Zijun Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate risk has emerged as a major global challenge with significant implications for the dynamics of exchange rates. By constructing a Climate Physical Risk Index based on extreme weather events across 77 countries from 1993 to 2022, this study examines whether climate shocks affect exchange rates. Fixed-effects models for panel data are employed to assess the cross-national impact of climate risk. The results indicate that climate shocks contribute to currency depreciation, with pronounced effects observed in developing countries, economies characterized by floating exchange rate regimes and those with lower levels of openness, and nations situated in the Northern Hemisphere. An analysis of the mechanisms reveals that climate risk affects exchange rates through various channels, such as deteriorating current accounts, widening fiscal deficits, hindering economic growth, and reducing total factor productivity. By introducing a cross-national risk index into the process of determining exchange rates, this study expands the intersection of climate economics and international finance. This study highlights significant policy implications for designing change rate regimes, fiscal planning, and enhancing resilience through investment strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101203"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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