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Understanding drought shocks: Bank financial stability and loan performance 理解干旱冲击：银行财务稳定性和贷款绩效
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101100
S. Mehmet Özsoy, Mehdi Rasteh, Erkan Yönder
{"title":"Understanding drought shocks: Bank financial stability and loan performance","authors":"S. Mehmet Özsoy,&nbsp;Mehdi Rasteh,&nbsp;Erkan Yönder","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unlike other climate shocks, droughts are slow and silent, and their impacts are not immediate. We define a two-year drought shock at the bank level and quantify the impact of droughts on bank stability and performance. Applying a difference-in-differences methodology, we find drought shocks to significantly worsen <em>Z</em>-Score, return on assets, and stock volatility. Non-performing loans of affected banks are significantly higher compared to unaffected banks. The economic impacts are comparable to those associated with a 1 % decline in unemployment rate. We also document that affected banks close branches in drought-hit regions but do not increase their capital ratios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101100"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143580505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of financial crises on industrial growth in the Middle East and North Africa 金融危机对中东和北非工业增长的影响
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101101
Carlos Madeira
{"title":"The impact of financial crises on industrial growth in the Middle East and North Africa","authors":"Carlos Madeira","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using country-industry panel data between 1980 until 2019, I estimate the causal effects of financial crises, with total impact given by the sum of a direct effect on all industries and an external finance dependence channel. Currency crises have the worst impact of all types of crises across all countries. Financial crises of all types are substantially worse for the MENA economies. For MENA, there is a manufacturing growth reduction of 2.8 %, 6 % and 1.2 % during banking, currency and sovereign debt crises. There is substantial heterogeneity across the MENA, with Morocco, Iraq and Israel experiencing a much stronger impact from all types of financial crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101101"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143611381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intraday impact of macroeconomic and COVID-19 news on Latin American stock indexes 宏观经济和COVID-19新闻对拉丁美洲股指的盘中影响
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101103
Mohamed A. Ayadi, Walid Ben Omrane, Md Nafeesur R. Khan
{"title":"Intraday impact of macroeconomic and COVID-19 news on Latin American stock indexes","authors":"Mohamed A. Ayadi,&nbsp;Walid Ben Omrane,&nbsp;Md Nafeesur R. Khan","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the intraday impact of domestic and US macroeconomic news and pandemic-related events on financial markets in Latin and North American countries. We find that U.S. macroeconomic indicators, particularly those related to monetary policy and real activity, have a stronger effect on index returns and volatility than domestic news. The pandemic further altered market responses, with vaccine development news generally increasing volatility across regions, while vaccine administration has contrasting effects in Latin American and North American markets. The study emphasizes the importance of context-specific and sign-switch effects, highlighting the global interconnectedness of financial markets, especially during times of crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101103"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143563307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
“ESG disclosure and its impact on firm leverage: Moderating role of quality of financial reporting and financial constraints” ESG披露及其对公司杠杆的影响：财务报告质量和财务约束的调节作用
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101099
Neha Malik , Smita Kashiramka
{"title":"“ESG disclosure and its impact on firm leverage: Moderating role of quality of financial reporting and financial constraints”","authors":"Neha Malik ,&nbsp;Smita Kashiramka","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101099","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101099","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of sustainable practices proxied by environment, social and governance (ESG) disclosures on accounting-based and market-based leverage ratios. Additionally, it explores the moderating effects of financial reporting quality (FRQ) and financial constraints (FC) on the ESG-leverage nexus. Leveraging data from 2700 non-financial firms across 16 emerging nations over 8 years from 2015 to 2022, the findings indicate that firms with higher ESG scores exhibit greater book and market leverage. This implies that ESG disclosures provide additional valuable information that reduces information asymmetry and aligns with lenders' expectations. The positive association between ESG and leverage is more pronounced for firms with lower FRQ and those facing higher FC. Findings are robust to different sensitivity tests, including lagged regressions to mitigate reverse causality, 2SLS and system GMM regression to address endogeneity concerns, and tests with alternate variables, samples and time periods. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, managers, lenders and investors, guiding policy development, corporate strategy and investment decisions. Overall, this paper highlights the crucial role of ESG and high-quality financial reporting in shaping the capital structure dynamics of firms in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101099"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143508394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does stock liquidity matter for corporate cash holdings? Insights from a transition economy 股票流动性对公司现金持有量有影响吗？转型经济的启示
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101102
Thi Huong Giang Vuong , Van Phuc Nguyen , Huu Manh Nguyen
{"title":"Does stock liquidity matter for corporate cash holdings? Insights from a transition economy","authors":"Thi Huong Giang Vuong ,&nbsp;Van Phuc Nguyen ,&nbsp;Huu Manh Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research examined the impact of corporate stock liquidity on cash holdings in Vietnam, spanning 2010 to 2020. Our results reveal that higher stock liquidity engenders lower corporate cash holdings. This effect holds after using diverse measurements of stock liquidity and econometric techniques for endogeneity. Most strikingly, we leveraged an exogenous shock to stock liquidity resulting from a variety of Vietnamese legal adjustments in the fields of finance, accounting, and investment in 2015. Our primary results diverge from preceding findings in developed markets and support the conventional notion that corporate managers tend to reduce cash holdings when they forecast that there is a reduction in external financing costs due to increased stock liquidity. Deeper analyses disclose that the stock liquidity–cash holdings nexus is substantially dominated by firm attributes, namely the firm investment degrees and cash dividend paid levels. Notably, industrial manufacturing firms with high stock liquidity have been less precautionary in cash storage management from 2015 onwards. Furthermore, our findings reveal the modulating role of large foreign block-holders on the stock liquidity–corporate cash holdings relationship from 2015 onwards. In a nutshell, our paper offers valuable insights into the association of stock liquidity and corporate cash holdings in the unique context of a transition economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101102"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Restraining bad news hoarding from managerial overconfidence: Evidence from the Sarbanes-Oxley Act 防止管理层过度自信而囤积坏消息：来自《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》的证据
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101098
Hyeong Joon Kim , Seongjae Mun
{"title":"Restraining bad news hoarding from managerial overconfidence: Evidence from the Sarbanes-Oxley Act","authors":"Hyeong Joon Kim ,&nbsp;Seongjae Mun","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) on the association between managerial overconfidence and stock price crash risk. The literature posits that overconfident CEOs are more likely to hoard bad news than others, leading to a higher crash risk. Our findings indicate that SOX restrains bad news hoarding from managerial overconfidence. As a result, the difference in crash risk between firms with overconfident and non-overconfident CEOs is significant before SOX but almost disappears after SOX. We provide supportive evidence that SOX reduces crash risk through the bad-news-hoarding channel, using financial restatements and analysts' forecasting. We also find that the effectiveness of SOX is more pronounced for firms with weaker external governance mechanisms and those that are financially constrained. Overall, this study suggests that SOX helps mitigate overconfident managerial behavior, such as bad news hoarding.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101098"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Return and volatility connectedness among US and Latin American markets: A QVAR approach with implications for hedging and portfolio diversification 美国和拉丁美洲市场的收益和波动性连通性：QVAR方法对对冲和投资组合多样化的影响
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101094
Saswat Patra , Kunjana Malik
{"title":"Return and volatility connectedness among US and Latin American markets: A QVAR approach with implications for hedging and portfolio diversification","authors":"Saswat Patra ,&nbsp;Kunjana Malik","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines return and volatility connectedness among major Latin American markets and the US using the Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) approach. We analyze spillovers at the median and extreme tails. Results reveal moderate integration at the median, with higher interconnectedness at both tails. We find that volatility spillovers are slightly greater at right tails, and spillovers peaked during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Return spillovers generally exceed volatility spillovers. Argentina and Chile are net receivers, while Brazil, Mexico, and the US are net transmitters. Based on the Minimum Connectedness Portfolio and the dynamic hedge ratio, Chile offers the cheapest hedge, while US is the most effective for risk reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101094"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does foreign economic policy uncertainty affect domestic analyst earnings forecasts? 国外经济政策的不确定性如何影响国内分析师的盈利预测？
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101087
Jian Song , Xiaozhou Zhou
{"title":"How does foreign economic policy uncertainty affect domestic analyst earnings forecasts?","authors":"Jian Song ,&nbsp;Xiaozhou Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the performance of domestic analyst earnings forecasts. We separately analyze how U.S. EPU affects the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts in other markets and the reverse relationship. Our findings indicate that the U.S. EPU (non-U.S. Global EPU) negatively (positively) affects the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts in other economies (the U.S.). We find that the economic dependency of a given economy on the U.S. (capital flow to the U.S.) is a channel for this negative (positive) impact. Our results remain robust after controlling for a comprehensive set of variables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101087"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The evolution of the relationship between onshore and offshore RMB markets under asymmetric volatility spillovers 非对称波动溢出下在岸和离岸人民币市场关系的演变
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101086
Jie Li , Aaron D. Smallwood
{"title":"The evolution of the relationship between onshore and offshore RMB markets under asymmetric volatility spillovers","authors":"Jie Li ,&nbsp;Aaron D. Smallwood","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The exchange rate system in China is unique, as onshore and offshore markets exist for a single currency. This paper investigates the evolution of information transmission for each market and explores their relative roles in driving price discovery and volatility spillovers as the RMB becomes more market oriented. We find that onshore returns and volatilities are increasingly influenced by the offshore market, with differences across various exchange rate policy phases. Using a novel method to capture asymmetric spillovers, the findings also show that the volatility of the onshore market is much more susceptible to offshore shocks when the RMB depreciates. To determine the factors influencing the strength of volatility spillovers, we provide additional regression analysis. The results show that capital flows and the degree of intervention are important determinants of information flows under unexpected RMB weakness in recent samples.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101086"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Managing man and machine: Automation potential and labor investment efficiency 人机管理：自动化潜力和劳动投资效率
IF 5.5 2区 经济学
Global Finance Journal Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101085
Sharif Mazumder , Leonid Pugachev
{"title":"Managing man and machine: Automation potential and labor investment efficiency","authors":"Sharif Mazumder ,&nbsp;Leonid Pugachev","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how a firm's ability to automate affects its labor investment efficiency (LIE). Companies with greater automation potential (AP), measured by share of routine task labor, invest more efficiently. They exhibit both lower propensity to over- and under-invest, as well as lower intensity of over- and under-investment, conditional on its occurrence. Using the catastrophic 2011 Thai flooding as an exogenous shock to AP, we find evidence that the relationship between AP and LIE is likely causal. AP appears to spur (hamper) employment growth in good (bad) economic states. We are the first to show that AP leads firms toward more efficient labor investment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"65 ","pages":"Article 101085"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143403536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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