Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2025-12-21DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101229
Silu Pang, Chunlin Cheng, Yihan Han, Guihong Hua
{"title":"Green interactions and corporate climate risk exposure: Evidence from China's investor-firm digital interactive platforms","authors":"Silu Pang, Chunlin Cheng, Yihan Han, Guihong Hua","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101229","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101229","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Retail investors' green interactions—their oversight and recommendations on corporate climate risks through official interactive platforms—have become a growing informal governance mechanism as climate change gains global prominence. Drawing on social exchange theory, this study examines how such interactions between retail investors and listed firms influence corporate climate risk exposure (CRE). Using data from China's investor-firm interactive platforms covering 1798 firms from 2014 to 2022, we find that green interactions significantly reduce CRE, with stronger effects among firms exhibiting higher social responsibility conformity and larger retail investor bases. Advocacy-oriented and information-oriented messages are most effective, and their impact is amplified by firms' response quality. We identify three mechanisms behind this relationship: heightened climate risk perception, lower information transmission costs, and strengthened investor trust. These findings deepen understanding of retail investor activism in corporate climate governance and offer insights for integrating grassroots engagement into climate policy and financial regulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101229"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-10DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101199
Ying Yuan , Yong Qu , Sijia Qiao
{"title":"Equity premium prediction: A constraint-based predictor decomposition approach","authors":"Ying Yuan , Yong Qu , Sijia Qiao","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a constraint-based predictor decomposition approach that exploits predictive information in commonly used predictors to improve equity premium forecasts. The approach identifies and quantifies unexpected changes as deviation tendency while bounding values to capture central tendency. Predictions from the two tendencies are then synthesized. Empirical analysis shows this approach outperforms existing methods, producing statistically and economically significant out-of-sample results. These findings validate the ability of our approach to capture both tendencies. We also extend the analysis to multivariate prediction, where results consistently confirm its superiority. Finally, robustness tests and additional analyses demonstrate that the approach delivers stable and reliable forecasting performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101199"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-24DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101181
Merih Angın, Eylem Güner, Pelin Kılınçarslan
{"title":"AI strategies for financial inclusion and gender equality in MENAT: Evidence from Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE","authors":"Merih Angın, Eylem Güner, Pelin Kılınçarslan","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101181","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101181","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite widespread artificial intelligence (AI) and financial-inclusion strategies across Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey (MENAT) countries, their implications for gender equality remain underexplored. This study bridges this gap by employing natural language processing techniques, specifically a RoBERTa model fine-tuned for Sustainable Development Goal 5 (Gender Equality), to analyze publicly available national AI strategy documents from MENAT countries. Our high-accuracy thematic classification reveals substantial variation in countries' approaches to gender-focused financial inclusion. Through an in-depth comparative assessment of Egypt, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), we find distinct approaches: the UAE demonstrates strong AI readiness yet limited focus on socio-economic inclusivity, Turkey shows moderate attention to integrating gender in financial inclusion, and Egypt, despite ambitious goals, faces significant implementation challenges. These findings underscore the diverse challenges and opportunities in leveraging AI to enhance financial inclusion and empower women, reflecting varied socio-economic priorities and execution capacities across the MENAT region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101181"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-03DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101172
Simón Zuluaga-Rendón , Diego A. Agudelo
{"title":"Nonparametric identification of factors for the cross-section of Latin American stock returns","authors":"Simón Zuluaga-Rendón , Diego A. Agudelo","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Factor Investing, a widely recognized investment approach, remains relatively underexplored in Latin American stock markets. This study investigates the determinants of stock returns in Latin America employing the Group Adaptive Elastic Net within a nonparametric framework from 2000 to 2020. Initially assessing 34 widely recognized financial factors, our analysis identifies that a set of six factors captures most of the variance in cross-sectional returns in the proposed model: Volatility, Assets-to-Market ratio, Cash Flow to Price, Earnings to Price, Intermediate Momentum, and Turnover. Furthermore, an active Factor Investing strategy derived from this framework demonstrates substantial outperformance relative to a benchmark index in out-of-sample testing. Overall, we find evidence of short-term predictability of returns in Latin American stocks based on nonlinear and dynamic factor effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101172"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101196
Pouyan Foroughi
{"title":"Walking quietly: Fiduciary waivers and blockholder exit","authors":"Pouyan Foroughi","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Corporate opportunity waivers let directors pursue outside ventures, weakening the duty of loyalty that supports investor confidence. Exploiting staggered state adoptions of these statutes from 2000 to 2018, we examine how blockholders, the market’s main bulwark against self-dealing, react. Public governance signals barely change; support for management proposals slips by less than one percentage point, failed director elections fall, and friendly hedge fund activism fades. Once scrutiny shifts toward the potential outcomes of private monitoring, a strikingly different picture emerges, as larger firms experience more frequent departures of independent directors, activists who once cooperated with management adopt confrontational tactics, and long-horizon investors pare their stakes, especially where diversion prospects are very high, analyst coverage is extensive, and boards are larger. Loosening fiduciary standards, therefore, gradually weakens shareholder oversight, eroding a critical governance mechanism and placing long-term firm value at risk, despite initial market optimism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101196"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-04DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101174
Dan Liu
{"title":"Seeing is believing: Forecasting oil market returns with artificial intelligence-powered visual climate change perception","authors":"Dan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes a novel framework for forecasting oil market returns by quantifying climate change perception based on visual media. A vision-language model processes 746,435 news images from <em>The New York Times</em> between May 2006 and December 2023 to construct the Visual Climate Change Perception Index (VCCP), along with two sub-indices. The VCCP exhibits significant predictive power for one-month-ahead WTI spot returns, outperforming text-based climate sentiment and macroeconomic benchmarks. The Physical Climate Impact Visual Index contributes to short-term return predictability, while the Transitional Climate Policy Visual Index captures longer-horizon dynamics. Out-of-sample analyses confirm the robustness and economic relevance of VCCP-based models, enhancing forecast accuracy and improving asset allocation performance. These findings underscore the role of emotionally salient visual cues in shaping market expectations and highlight the importance of multimodal climate signals in the pricing of high-carbon assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101174"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-26DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101197
Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos, Rafael Schiozer
{"title":"Sovereign fiscal capacity, implicit subsidies, and bank value","authors":"Lucas N.C. Vasconcelos, Rafael Schiozer","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101197","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101197","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how fiscal constraints affect banks' market value in a cross-country sample, using exogenous variations in fiscal constraints based on abnormal military spending. Increased fiscal constraints arising from exogenous spending shocks can affect bank valuation through two different channels with opposing expected effects: spending shocks weaken governments' ability to stabilize the financial system during crises, resulting in lower bank valuation; however, when fiscal constraints are heightened because of positive sector-specific spending shocks (increased military expenditure), corporate earnings—particularly in sectors that are heavily dependent on government contracts—become more predictable, which subsequently reduces banks' earnings volatility, thereby increasing their valuation. We find that fiscal constraints negatively impact banks' valuation, which is consistent with the first channel (i.e., owing to the reduced proportion of banks' value composed by implicit or explicit governmental guarantees). In addition, bank resolution reforms adopted after the global financial crisis attenuate this relationship, but do not completely eliminate it. The sovereign–bank nexus remains relevant and concentrated in large banks. Our inferences provide insights in favor of strengthening bank resolution frameworks, to reduce banks' reliance on governmental funds and ensure bailouts occur only when welfare-enhancing. By limiting expectations of unconditional government support, these regulations may mitigate too-big-to-fail perceptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101197"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-08DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101183
Morong Xu , Yaopeng Wang
{"title":"Beyond the green facade: Evidence of a nonlinear link between greenwashing and financing efficiency","authors":"Morong Xu , Yaopeng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101183","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101183","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the nonlinear relationship between corporate greenwashing and financing efficiency using panel data from Chinese listed firms between 2009 and 2023. We identify an inverted U-shaped relationship grounded in signaling theory and the peer effect perspective. At low levels, greenwashing allows firms to gain legitimacy by signaling environmental responsibility and encouraging peer imitation, thereby improving financing efficiency. However, as greenwashing intensifies, stakeholder skepticism increases, leading to higher financing costs and reduced efficiency. We also explore contextual factors that moderate this relationship. Media coverage amplifies stakeholder reactions to both credible and exaggerated environmental, social, and governance (ESG) claims, while board interlocks facilitate the spread of greenwashing practices and heighten reputational risks within corporate networks. Collectively, these elements reinforce the nonlinear connection between greenwashing and financing efficiency. The results highlight the complex dynamics linking greenwashing with financing conditions and demonstrate the contingent roles of media visibility and governance networks in shaping market perceptions of ESG behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101183"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145106991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-15DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203
Yu Ma , Wenxia Zhao , Zijun Ding
{"title":"Does climate risk influence exchange rates?","authors":"Yu Ma , Wenxia Zhao , Zijun Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate risk has emerged as a major global challenge with significant implications for the dynamics of exchange rates. By constructing a Climate Physical Risk Index based on extreme weather events across 77 countries from 1993 to 2022, this study examines whether climate shocks affect exchange rates. Fixed-effects models for panel data are employed to assess the cross-national impact of climate risk. The results indicate that climate shocks contribute to currency depreciation, with pronounced effects observed in developing countries, economies characterized by floating exchange rate regimes and those with lower levels of openness, and nations situated in the Northern Hemisphere. An analysis of the mechanisms reveals that climate risk affects exchange rates through various channels, such as deteriorating current accounts, widening fiscal deficits, hindering economic growth, and reducing total factor productivity. By introducing a cross-national risk index into the process of determining exchange rates, this study expands the intersection of climate economics and international finance. This study highlights significant policy implications for designing change rate regimes, fiscal planning, and enhancing resilience through investment strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101203"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global Finance JournalPub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-05DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101182
Mingfa Ding , Yikai Han , Mi Shen , Sandy Suardi
{"title":"Political turnover and related party transactions in Chinese state-owned enterprises","authors":"Mingfa Ding , Yikai Han , Mi Shen , Sandy Suardi","doi":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101182","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101182","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the dual role of government involvement in Chinese firms, acting as both a “helping hand” and a “grabbing hand”, with a focus on state-owned enterprises (SOEs). We examine how political turnover influences related party transactions (RPTs), which may serve to prop up distressed firms or facilitate tunnelling at the expense of minority shareholders. We find that political turnover is associated with a significant decline in RPTs, a causal relationship supported by multiple analyses addressing endogeneity concerns. Further evidence suggests that SOEs reduce tunnelling when local governments face fiscal constraints and curb propping activities when firms are at risk of delisting or losing rights to issue new shares. The reduction in RPTs is more pronounced in firms with high initial RPTs, weak governance, or exposure to local corruption, and is amplified when new provincial leaders are outsiders. These findings suggest that political turnover acts as an external governance mechanism, disrupting entrenched rent-seeking practices and reshaping firm-level resource allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46907,"journal":{"name":"Global Finance Journal","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101182"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145011218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}