Arief A. Yusuf , Elizabeth L. Roos , J. Mark Horridge , Djoni Hartono
{"title":"Indonesian capital city relocation and regional economy's transition toward less carbon-intensive economy: An inter-regional CGE analysis","authors":"Arief A. Yusuf , Elizabeth L. Roos , J. Mark Horridge , Djoni Hartono","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101212","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Transitioning to a low-carbon economy can take various forms, one of which is structural change, particularly tertiarization. When the economic structure shifts from being dominated by sectors that rely heavily on fossil fuels to one that does not, the economy can become less carbon-intensive. The relocation of Indonesia's capital city from Jakarta to East Kalimantan is an example of how a traditionally resource-intensive regional economy may respond to the sudden emergence of a large-scale service sector, in this case, the government sector. This paper investigates how the capital city relocation may affect the destination region's economic structure using an inter-regional computable general equilibrium modeling<span><span>. The model considers not only how different economic sectors are interconnected but also how sectors within one province are interconnected with sectors in other provinces. According to the findings, the relocation of the capital city increases the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the destination region (KalTim) by a massive amount (22%) while decreasing the GRDP of Jakarta (the old capital) by a moderate amount (7%). However, because the expanding sector is relatively high-skill intensive, it tends to produce skill-biased increases in real wages. As a result, the destination region (Kaltim) undergoes massive structural change as its service sector share increases by 12%, a change historically comparable in two decades. In addition, Kaltim's </span>carbon emission intensity decreases by 18% due to this large-scale tertiarization. The analysis has demonstrated how and to what extent the relocation of Indonesia's capital city may help the province diversify from a natural resource-intensive economy to a more service-oriented and low-carbon economy.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101212"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49700432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unconventional monetary policy and the bond market in Japan: A new Keynesian perspective","authors":"Parantap Basu , Kenji Wada","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101207","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101207","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using the lens of a medium scale DSGE model<span>, we analyze macroeconomic effects of Japan’s unconventional monetary policy<span> which is known as Qualitative and Quantitative Easing (QQE). Our focus is on the bond market. The model features: (i) commercial bank’s demand for excess reserve in response to liquidity risk and (ii) linkage among central bank, commercial banks and the government via government bonds and bank reserve. We simulate the policy effects of a quantitative easing (QE) shock and a negative shock to the interest rate on excess reserve (IOER). The QE multiplier for real GDP is 1.94 and it has substantial effect on lowering the bond yield in line with the policy target of QQE. On the other hand, an IOER cut has qualitatively similar effects on the real and financial sectors but quantitatively its effect is of second order importance. In light of these policy simulations, we evaluate Japan’s recent yield curve control policy.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101207"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48545192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A note on conglomerate mergers: The Google/Fitbit case","authors":"Akihiko Nakagawa , Noriaki Matsushima","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We consider conglomerate mergers<span> using the Google/Fitbit case as an example. First, summarizing the importance of conglomerate merger control and the current enforcement standards for such mergers by competition laws, we briefly describe a review of the Google/Fitbit merger by the Japan Fair Trade Commission. Next, we explain the background of the merger and introduce Chen et al. (2022), who theoretically discuss a cross-market merger by considering the Google/Fitbit merger. Finally, we discuss the implications of Chen et al. (2022) for controlling conglomerate mergers. Specifically, personalized pricing based on data analytics can be a foreclosure device; in particular, merger-specific efficiencies can foster market foreclosure.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101203"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45849141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluation of fiscal policy using alternative GDP data in Japan","authors":"Shin-ichi Fukuda","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In macroeconomics, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is an old, but new controversial question that has been debated for many years. The controversy naturally arises if analytical frameworks, sample periods, or targeted countries are different. However, it sometimes arises, even when using similar analytical frameworks and sample periods. The purpose of this study is to explore whether revisions to the GDP data series are a source of the controversy in Japan. Since the mid-1990s, the Japanese economy has remained stuck in a liquidity trap where interest rates have fallen to zero. However, not only has the cumulative fiscal deficit increased to an unprecedented level, but many structural problems have also emerged. Under these circumstances, it is unclear whether the fiscal policy has worked effectively in the Japanese economy. When a reduced-form equation or VAR model was estimated, the empirical findings were quite different depending on GDP benchmark year we used in the analysis. When benchmark year 2011 was used, fiscal expenditure was effective under ultralow interest rates. In contrast, when benchmark year 2015 was used, it was not effective, especially since around 2010, even under ultra-low interest rates. This implies that in Japan, the effectiveness of fiscal policy must be carefully interpreted, noting which GDP benchmark year is used in the analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101204"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48859586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Relevant markets and market power of mobile apps","authors":"Kohei Kawaguchi , Toshifumi Kuroda , Susumu Sato","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Antitrust investigations in the mobile app economy often require a definition of the relevant market of mobile apps and the evaluation of their market power. However, existing antitrust tools face significant challenges due to the non-price nature of mobile apps with multiple revenue sources, two competition margins at the mobile OS and mobile app levels, and the switching costs involved in the choice of mobile OSs. In this paper, we provide a description of the mobile app economy, including its essential components, players, and characteristics, and identify the challenges currently observed in antitrust investigations. We propose a model for mobile app users and advertisers that can address these issues and suggest a method for defining the relevant market of mobile apps and evaluating their market power, which is adaptable to markets with zero-priced products or multiple revenue sources beyond mobile apps.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101209"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45627907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"State-dependent effects of the unconventional monetary policy in stock markets","authors":"Toyoichiro Shirota","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study analyzes the state-dependent effect of the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s intervention in stock markets from 2013 to 2017. A causal inference on such intervention is difficult because of the self-selective behavior of central banks. To address this problem, I apply the propensity score method in a time series context, exploiting stock price information of a single day. The key finding is that the effects are state-dependent and stronger during market downturns.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101208"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44946323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effects of quantitative easing policy on bank lending: Evidence from Japanese regional banks","authors":"Kozo Harimaya , Toshiki Jinushi","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101193","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper examines the response of Japanese regional banks to the quantitative easing operations conducted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) using semiannual bank-level data from 2001 to 2020. Many regional banks predominantly focus on lending business in their local areas so that, unlike some previous literature, we control for the local economic conditions. We found that, compared with the pre-QQE period, the BOJ’s government bond purchase has a remarkably greater impact on regional bank’s lending after the introduction of QQE. These results suggest that the QQE policy is quite effective in promoting bank lending. Regarding the differences in bank characteristics, the magnitude of impact is larger for regional banks with a higher </span>NPL<span> ratio, a larger asset size, and a lower market share. The first result is consistent with the findings of Bowman et al. (2015) and Matousek et al. (2019), whereas the second and third results are novel. The Granger causality tests produce consistent results.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101193"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49700506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What caused the downward trend in Japan’s labor share?","authors":"Masahiro Higo","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101206","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101206","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Measuring the labor share is not an easy task. Labor share movements often vary depending on both their definition and the measurement scope. This study estimates the labor share in Japan based on two representative government statistical sources—the National Accounts and the “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry” —with their differences in coverage and accounting standards corrected. We confirmed a clear downward trend in Japan’s labor share since the 1990 s, both in the total Japanese economy and in the corporate sector. The driving force behind the labor share decline is the significant decrease in the income of the self-employed (mixed income) and in the salaries and bonuses awarded to executives who are owners of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This decrease is attributed to the decline in the number of self-employed individuals and SMEs. By contrast, salaries and bonuses to employees hardly contributed to the decline. These findings suggest that the straightforward narrative that—technological progress, globalization such as the transfer of production overseas, and the expansion of non-regular employment have reduced labor income to employees, thus resulting in a lower labor share—does not directly apply to the Japanese economy. Understanding the mechanism of the decline in Japan’s labor share requires identifying the causes and effects of the decline in the numbers of self-employed individuals and SMEs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101206"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49668922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How does excessive volatility of consumption vary across countries?","authors":"Khaliun Dovchinsuren","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I revisit the excess volatility of the consumption puzzle, a feature often observed in developing and emerging economies. I assess how the excess volatility of consumption varies across countries by incorporating interrelation between countries’ commodity dependence and income level. This is estimated in the context of the excess sensitivity of the consumption to output using cross-country panel data. I find that the sensitivity of consumption on the income level appears differently by the country’s commodity dependence. The sensitivity is higher in low-income groups for the commodity-dependent countries, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for non-commodity-dependent countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101205"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49700141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation","authors":"Yasuyuki komaki","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101192","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101192","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examined the accuracy of prediction of Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States from the viewpoint of forecast errors. Compared with the forecast error of each country at the around same time, the forecast error of Japan is about 2 times larger. In case of Japan, even immediately before release of quarterly GDP, the forecast error is over 1 %, which is the same level of forecast error as 94 days before in the United States and 135 days before in Canada.</p><p>Evaluating the characteristics of forecast errors, it can be pointed out that Japan's forecasts are as efficient as those of other countries, and the addition of major economic statistics is unlikely to improve forecast errors. The reason for Japan's large forecast errors is the fluctuations in the GDP growth rate. These results provide evidence that volatile GDP may make the outlook worse.</p><p>Large fluctuations in Japan's quarterly GDP have already been pointed out. It is necessary to examine the factors behind the large fluctuations in the rate of change in Japan's quarterly GDP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"66 ","pages":"Article 101192"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46382060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}