{"title":"The diminishing impact of exchange rates on China’s exports","authors":"Willem Thorbecke , Chen Chen , Nimesh Salike","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s exports increased from $62 billion in 1990 to $3.6 trillion in 2022. This surge has generated protectionism abroad. Researchers found that renminbi appreciations in earlier years decreased China’s exports. This paper presents time series and panel data evidence indicating that both real effective and bilateral real exchange rates after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) no longer affect aggregate exports. It also finds that almost all individual export categories were sensitive to exchange rates before the GFC but that less than half are afterwards. These results imply that, if policymakers in China and the rest of the world want to influence China’s trade, they need to use instruments other than exchange rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101329"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145195890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Towards sustainable floral business in Japan: Evidence from dynamic demand system between domestic and imported cut flowers","authors":"Chun-Fu Hsu , Cho-Han Su , Kuo-I Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101322","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Japan has been addressed the largest market for cut flower imports and consumption in Asia. Since 2000, the floral industry in Japan has faced a decline in production due to an aging workforce and rising costs, while domestic demand for cut flowers has remained stable. The supply-demand gap has been boosted by increasing imports. The import and household consumption survey data from January 2002 to December 2021 and dynamic EC-AIDS model are employed to estimate the expenditure, own-price compensated, and cross-price elasticities between domestic and imported cut flowers in Japan. Our findings show that domestic floral business promotion policy enacted since 2014 had no significant impacts on structural change of demand between imported and domestic cut flowers. The empirical results indicate that domestic cut flowers in Japan are substitutes for those from major import source countries, though the degree of substitutions are limited. Notably, not only the complementary relationship of orchids but also an expenditure elasticity with 2.62 of Chrysanthemum between Japan and Taiwan, suggesting a greater sustainable potential in the Japanese Market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 101322"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144861338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do lifelong experiences of land prices affect homeownership in Japan?","authors":"Kiichi Tokuoka","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using Japanese household data, this study tests the hypothesis that experiencing growth in land prices over a lifetime influences homeownership. To test this experience hypothesis, this study calculates the lifelong weighted average of real land price growth while estimating a parameter that determines the shape of the weight function. The study then corroborates the results using US data. The results — using both Japanese and US data — support the hypothesis and are consistent with the belief channel; that is, experiencing price growth affects homeownership by influencing expectations of returns from housing investment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 101320"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144580387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effects of welfare receipt on well-being: Evidence from older people in Japan","authors":"Kodai Matsumoto","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101321","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101321","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The purpose of this study is to verify whether receiving public assistance affects the well-being of the older people. When socially nondependency norms have formed, receiving public assistance may reduce well-being. The study focuses on older people in Japan, where public assistance is minimal. Based on the findings, for individuals aged 65 years and older, the negative impact is weak and often not statistically significant. However, welfare benefits have a positive effect on elderly men while exerting a negative effect on elderly women. Moreover, regional differences are found among the working-age population, but not among the elderly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 101321"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144580388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Foreign exchange liberalization and exchange rate exposure: Firm-level evidence of the Japanese Automobile Industry","authors":"Teru Nishikawa , Kiyotaka Sato","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically examines the effect of the drastic amendment of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA) in 1998 on the exchange rate exposure of ten Japanese automobile firms. By conducting panel estimation using the firm-level explanatory variables constructed originally, we find that (1) the degree of automobile firms’ exchange rate exposure increased significantly during the post-1998 FEFTA amendment period; (2) however, more profitable automobile firms with higher ROE and facing larger exchange rate volatility could reduce their exposures after the 1998 FEFTA amendment because they could conduct efficient operational hedging through expanding supply chains and more readily utilize efficient hedging instruments to reduce group-wide foreign exchange risk; (3) more sales in and exports to Southeast Asian countries significantly reduced automobile firms’ exposures, because they tended to invoice their exports to Southeast Asian countries not in USD but in the yen. Our findings would be insightful for Asian economies that move gradually toward foreign exchange liberalization. Efficient operational and financial hedging, as well as invoice currency choice, significantly affect the degree of exposure after foreign exchange liberalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 101312"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hyunjung Cho , Gahee Bak , Junyun Kim , Hongshik Lee
{"title":"The knowledge transfer patterns of multinational firms: The evidence from Korean firm-level analysis","authors":"Hyunjung Cho , Gahee Bak , Junyun Kim , Hongshik Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines one of the theoretical hypotheses of Keller and Yeaple (2013) in order to investigate how trade costs and the level of firm-level knowledge intensity of a parent firm affect its knowledge transfer to foreign affiliates. Specifically, we focus on Keller and Yeaple (2013)’s second prediction that the share of intra-firm imports from the parent declines in trade costs, but this decline is weaker in knowledge-intensive settings. Using a panel of Korean manufacturing firms over 2007–2018, we separate knowledge transfer into (a) knowledge-embedded intra-firm trade and (b) direct communication (human resource secondments). We then analyze the role of trade costs and knowledge intensity on each channel via fixed effects and dynamic panel estimations. We find that trade costs significantly reduce intra-firm exports of knowledge-embedded inputs; however, a higher knowledge intensity mitigates this effect. On the other hand, trade costs and knowledge intensity do not exert a significant influence on direct communication.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 101313"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Corrigendum to “A nowcasting model of industrial production using alternative data and machine learning approaches” [Jpn. World Econ. 71 (2024) 101271]","authors":"Kakuho Furukawa , Ryohei Hisano , Yukio Minoura , Tomoyuki Yagi","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101297","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101297","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"74 ","pages":"Article 101297"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144204742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regret aversion in Japanese and U.S. stock markets: Analyzing the effects of market conditions","authors":"Somyung Kim , Kiyool Ohk","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the effects of investors’ regret aversion and regret premium on investment decision-making and stock returns in the Japanese and U.S. stock markets from a behavioral finance perspective. Using regret variables, we demonstrate that regret aversion significantly impacts asset pricing. Our empirical results show that investors demand a higher regret premium when holding high-regret assets, and this relationship persists even after controlling for various firm characteristics. By analyzing market states and dynamics, we find that regret aversion is particularly strong in down markets, though its influence weakens in up markets. Market dynamics analysis reveals that regret premiums are most pronounced during simultaneous upward market trends. Robustness tests using cumulative returns and industry-adjusted short-term return reversals further confirm the significant influence of regret on stock returns. Additionally, our analysis of irrational investor behavior, including the disposition effect and psychological price barriers, shows that regret aversion is more pronounced in the context of unrealized capital losses and when asset prices deviate significantly from psychological price barriers. This study provides comprehensive insights into the impact of regret aversion and market dynamics on investor behavior and asset pricing, challenging traditional finance theories grounded in the assumption of rational decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"74 ","pages":"Article 101311"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does SME policy enhance the adjustment of trade credit? Evidence from a revision of the Subcontract Act in Japan","authors":"Daisuke Tsuruta","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101310","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101310","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we examine whether small and medium enterprises (SMEs) face severe constraints in adjusting their trade receivables by focusing on the 2016 revision of the Subcontract Act of Japan. Small businesses typically have weaker bargaining power than their customers because they are likely to depend on certain customers. Accordingly, many small businesses face severe constraints in the adjustment of their trade receivables. The Subcontract Act prohibits customer firms from receiving trade credit from small businesses over the long term, and this was enforced more strictly after 2016 following a regulatory revision. This made it easier for small businesses to adjust their trade receivables if their level was considered excessive, serving to enhance the speed of adjustment. We find that trade receivables decreased by an average of 2.1 days following the policy change for the main target firms of the Subcontract Act. Our results also show that small businesses could more rapidly adjust their trade receivables than large firms, both before and after the revision. On this basis, we conclude that while the policy effects on the level of trade receivables are significant, those on the adjustment are not.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"74 ","pages":"Article 101310"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143894921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Raehyung Lee , Jinki Hong , Duk Hee Lee , Jay Y. Ohm
{"title":"Influence of exclusive subcontracting on technological innovation: The case of Korean SMEs","authors":"Raehyung Lee , Jinki Hong , Duk Hee Lee , Jay Y. Ohm","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does subcontracting with large firms promote the innovation endeavours of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)? This study addresses this question using panel data from 22,528 observations of Korean SMEs across all industries from 2015 to 2019. We tested the hypotheses individually for five sub-industries based on Pavitt’s (1984, 1990) technological trajectory classification. The findings indicate that exclusive subcontracting negatively affects innovation endeavours, specifically in the supplier-dominated, science-based, and assembly/processing industries. By examining SMEs both as a whole and within specific industries, this study provides new evidence on the relationship between exclusivity and innovation, expanding on prior research that focused on data from limited sectors. Specially, the findings have implications for the innovation strategies of firms, industries, and countries such as South Korea, where SMEs heavily rely on transactions with large firms. These findings offer new quantitative evidence for sectoral innovation systems, emphasising different innovation strategies for each industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"74 ","pages":"Article 101309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}