The diminishing impact of exchange rates on China’s exports

IF 1.2 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI:10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101329

Willem Thorbecke , Chen Chen , Nimesh Salike

引用次数: 0

Abstract

China’s exports increased from $62 billion in 1990 to $3.6 trillion in 2022. This surge has generated protectionism abroad. Researchers found that renminbi appreciations in earlier years decreased China’s exports. This paper presents time series and panel data evidence indicating that both real effective and bilateral real exchange rates after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) no longer affect aggregate exports. It also finds that almost all individual export categories were sensitive to exchange rates before the GFC but that less than half are afterwards. These results imply that, if policymakers in China and the rest of the world want to influence China’s trade, they need to use instruments other than exchange rates.

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汇率对中国出口的影响正在减弱

中国的出口从1990年的620亿美元增加到2022年的3.6万亿美元。这种激增在国外引发了保护主义。研究人员发现，早些年人民币升值降低了中国的出口。本文用时间序列和面板数据证明，2008-2009年全球金融危机（GFC）后的实际有效汇率和双边实际汇率不再影响总出口。报告还发现，几乎所有单独的出口类别在全球金融危机之前都对汇率敏感，但在全球金融危机之后，只有不到一半的出口类别对汇率敏感。这些结果表明，如果中国和世界其他地区的政策制定者想要影响中国的贸易，他们需要使用汇率以外的工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Japan and the World Economy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

46 days

期刊介绍： The increase in Japan share of international trade and financial transactions has had a major impact on the world economy in general and on the U.S. economy in particular. The new economic interdependence between Japan and its trading partners created a variety of problems and so raised many issues that require further study. Japan and the World Economy will publish original research in economics, finance, managerial sciences, and marketing that express these concerns.