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Extreme Capital Flows and Risk Linkages in Emerging Market Financial Submarkets 新兴市场金融子市场的极端资本流动与风险关联
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70025
Yang Chen, Yun Feng, Qing Liu
{"title":"Extreme Capital Flows and Risk Linkages in Emerging Market Financial Submarkets","authors":"Yang Chen,&nbsp;Yun Feng,&nbsp;Qing Liu","doi":"10.1111/infi.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper examines the drivers and impacts of extreme capital flow events in emerging markets, with a focus on distinguishing among flow types (portfolio, bank and FDI) and event categories (surge vs. stop). We find that the global financial cycle drives extreme events in portfolio and bank flows, while FDI is more sensitive to domestic factors. Notably, sudden stops in cross-border capital flows, particularly in bank and FDI flows, have a greater impact on the overall risk interconnectedness of domestic financial submarkets compared to surge events. We also identify the transmission channels: extreme bank flow events increase credit market net risk spillovers, while concurrent extreme capital flow events heighten foreign exchange market net risk spillovers. Further discussion shows that foreign exchange sales and macroprudential policies mitigate the adverse effects of negative global financial cycle shocks, with macroprudential measures demonstrating stronger effectiveness in the medium term.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"256-274"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Pegging Affect Market Efficiency? Assessing Long Memory in Stablecoin and Cryptocurrency Markets 钉住汇率影响市场效率吗？评估稳定币和加密货币市场的长期记忆
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70020
Qing Yan, Lei Huang, Liang Wu
{"title":"Does Pegging Affect Market Efficiency? Assessing Long Memory in Stablecoin and Cryptocurrency Markets","authors":"Qing Yan,&nbsp;Lei Huang,&nbsp;Liang Wu","doi":"10.1111/infi.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Stablecoins attract academic interest because of their value-pegging mechanisms and price stability. This likely results in distinct market efficiency. This study compares stablecoins (USDC, Tether, Dai) with Bitcoin and Ethereum and assesses long memory through the Hurst exponent while addressing distortions caused by heavy tails and extreme events. Through shuffled and rank-order series with a sliding-window approach, we provide the first reliable time-varying analysis. The results show that stablecoins exhibit inefficiency and anti-persistence, with Tether being relatively more efficient. Their tail properties are highly sensitive to extreme events. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain stable weak-form efficiency even during the COVID-19 pandemic. These differences are linked to stablecoins' US dollar pegging mechanisms and regulatory constraints. The findings of this study enable comparisons of market efficiency between stablecoins and unpegged cryptocurrencies and offer insights for regulation and investment decisions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"207-223"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Does Global Liquidity Affect Mortgage and Business Credit Interest Rates?: Evidence From Emerging Markets 全球流动性如何影响抵押贷款和商业信贷利率？：来自新兴市场的证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70026
Berrak Bahadir, Neven Valev
{"title":"How Does Global Liquidity Affect Mortgage and Business Credit Interest Rates?: Evidence From Emerging Markets","authors":"Berrak Bahadir,&nbsp;Neven Valev","doi":"10.1111/infi.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We show that changes in global liquidity have an influence on bank lending interest rates across emerging market economies. Specifically, global liquidity has a negative effect on mortgage interest rates and on business interest rates with mortgage rates showing a more pronounced response. Country characteristics also play a role. The negative relationship between global liquidity and domestic interest rates is particularly strong in countries with more foreign banks and greater bank concentration as well as in countries with fewer capital controls. Conversely, countries with greater financial and institutional development experience a reduced impact of global liquidity on lending interest rates.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"275-283"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring Cross-Border Spillovers: A Natural Language Processing-Based Approach 衡量跨境溢出效应：一种基于自然语言处理的方法
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-04-23 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70034
Jelle Barkema, Borislava Mircheva, Mico Mrkaic, Yuanchen Yang
{"title":"Measuring Cross-Border Spillovers: A Natural Language Processing-Based Approach","authors":"Jelle Barkema,&nbsp;Borislava Mircheva,&nbsp;Mico Mrkaic,&nbsp;Yuanchen Yang","doi":"10.1111/infi.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper dives into the Fund's historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openness, a history of financial crises, and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"413-425"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Content: International Finance 29/2 内容：国际金融29/2
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70047
{"title":"Content: International Finance 29/2","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/infi.70047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70047","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"205-206"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When the Fed Sneezes, What Stock Market Catches the Cold? 美联储打个喷嚏，哪个股市会感冒？
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70024
Carlo Rosa
{"title":"When the Fed Sneezes, What Stock Market Catches the Cold?","authors":"Carlo Rosa","doi":"10.1111/infi.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper identifies three indicators of monetary policy surprises—unexpected changes in the federal funds rate, forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases—and examines their effects on international stock prices using an intraday event study approach. Both US and international equity indexes respond significantly to all three types of monetary surprises, with international stock returns more sensitive than US stocks. Announcement drifts ahead of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are also stronger internationally. While international stocks are more volatile, adjusting for volatility or beta does not fully explain their excess sensitivity. FOMC announcement effects become mostly insignificant when measuring stock returns in local currency and including S&amp;P 500 exposure, highlighting the role of exchange rate passthrough and US market linkages in global monetary transmission.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"332-349"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Pegging Affect Market Efficiency? Assessing Long Memory in Stablecoin and Cryptocurrency Markets 钉住汇率影响市场效率吗？评估稳定币和加密货币市场的长期记忆
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70020
Qing Yan, Lei Huang, Liang Wu
{"title":"Does Pegging Affect Market Efficiency? Assessing Long Memory in Stablecoin and Cryptocurrency Markets","authors":"Qing Yan,&nbsp;Lei Huang,&nbsp;Liang Wu","doi":"10.1111/infi.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Stablecoins attract academic interest because of their value-pegging mechanisms and price stability. This likely results in distinct market efficiency. This study compares stablecoins (USDC, Tether, Dai) with Bitcoin and Ethereum and assesses long memory through the Hurst exponent while addressing distortions caused by heavy tails and extreme events. Through shuffled and rank-order series with a sliding-window approach, we provide the first reliable time-varying analysis. The results show that stablecoins exhibit inefficiency and anti-persistence, with Tether being relatively more efficient. Their tail properties are highly sensitive to extreme events. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain stable weak-form efficiency even during the COVID-19 pandemic. These differences are linked to stablecoins' US dollar pegging mechanisms and regulatory constraints. The findings of this study enable comparisons of market efficiency between stablecoins and unpegged cryptocurrencies and offer insights for regulation and investment decisions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"207-223"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Content: International Finance 29/2 内容：国际金融29/2
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70047
{"title":"Content: International Finance 29/2","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/infi.70047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70047","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"205-206"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cash for Transactions or Store-of-Value? A Comparative Study on Scandinavian Countries and Canada 现金交易还是价值存储？斯堪的纳维亚国家与加拿大的比较研究
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70028
Carl Andreas Claussen, Björn Segendorf, Franz Seitz
{"title":"Cash for Transactions or Store-of-Value? A Comparative Study on Scandinavian Countries and Canada","authors":"Carl Andreas Claussen,&nbsp;Björn Segendorf,&nbsp;Franz Seitz","doi":"10.1111/infi.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate the demand for transactional and non-transactional cash balances (banknotes and coins) in Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Norway over the last decades exploiting the seasonality of cash demand. These countries share many features that are relevant for cash demand, but nevertheless show large differences in terms of aggregate cash balances. While Canada, Iceland and Denmark have seen increased aggregate cash balances, Norway and especially Sweden have seen a dramatic decline. We find that transactional balances have decreased somewhat in all of the countries and the differences in aggregated cash balances is due to differences in the development of non-transactional cash balances. We argue that different de facto legal tender status, crisis exposures, foreign demand and cash supply-side policies help explain these findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"298-309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International Spillovers of Conventional Versus Unconventional US Monetary Policy 美国传统货币政策与非常规货币政策的国际溢出效应
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70022
Hakan Yilmazkuday
{"title":"International Spillovers of Conventional Versus Unconventional US Monetary Policy","authors":"Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1111/infi.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper investigates the international spillovers of conventional and unconventional US monetary policy for a diverse set of 44 countries. A two-stage empirical approach is considered, first using country-specific structural vector autoregressions to isolate US monetary policy shocks and estimate their dynamic effects on other economies. In the second stage, cross-country regressions are used to identify the structural characteristics that drive the heterogeneity in these spillovers. The results suggest a distinct dichotomy in the transmission mechanisms: conventional US monetary policy appears to spill over primarily through trade-related channels in this framework, with its impact shaped by a country's participation in global value chains. In contrast, unconventional policy is transmitted mainly through financial channels, with a country's degree of financial openness being the most critical determinant of its vulnerability. While conventional US monetary policy tightening typically causes currencies to appreciate, unconventional tightening leads to widespread depreciation. These findings imply that the specific tool used by the Federal Reserve may influence the relative dominance of international transmission channels and that financial openness significantly reduces monetary policy autonomy in the face of unconventional US monetary policy shocks.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"224-239"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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