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When the Fed Sneezes, What Stock Market Catches the Cold? 美联储打个喷嚏，哪个股市会感冒？
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70024
Carlo Rosa
{"title":"When the Fed Sneezes, What Stock Market Catches the Cold?","authors":"Carlo Rosa","doi":"10.1111/infi.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper identifies three indicators of monetary policy surprises—unexpected changes in the federal funds rate, forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases—and examines their effects on international stock prices using an intraday event study approach. Both US and international equity indexes respond significantly to all three types of monetary surprises, with international stock returns more sensitive than US stocks. Announcement drifts ahead of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are also stronger internationally. While international stocks are more volatile, adjusting for volatility or beta does not fully explain their excess sensitivity. FOMC announcement effects become mostly insignificant when measuring stock returns in local currency and including S&amp;P 500 exposure, highlighting the role of exchange rate passthrough and US market linkages in global monetary transmission.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"332-349"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geopolitical Risk Shocks and China's Foreign Trade: An Asymmetric Granger Causality Investigation 地缘政治风险冲击与中国对外贸易：非对称格兰杰因果关系调查
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70030
Yina Qiao, Zhonglu Chen
{"title":"Geopolitical Risk Shocks and China's Foreign Trade: An Asymmetric Granger Causality Investigation","authors":"Yina Qiao,&nbsp;Zhonglu Chen","doi":"10.1111/infi.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Escalating geopolitical conflicts and great power games have posed severe challenges to cross-border trade and global economic stability. However, the literature inadequately addresses the nexus between geopolitical risk (GPR) and China's foreign trade, particularly the heterogeneous import and export effects across regions. To fill this gap, this study adopts the asymmetric Granger causality test to explore the causal link between the China GPR Index (CGPR) and its import and export volume with eight major trading regions (the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, Russia, ASEAN and the EU), using monthly data from January 2014 to June 2025. The empirical results reveal significant asymmetric Granger causality between China's GPR and foreign trade, with notable differences in causal intensity and direction during the upward/downward trends of the CGPR and trade expansion/contraction. Distinct regional heterogeneities are also identified, and the two-way causal interaction features long-term persistence, with GPR exerting sustained effects on medium- to long-term trade growth rather than short-term fluctuations. Notably, asymmetry implies that policymakers should formulate asymmetric risk response policies, such as reinforcing trade resilience during GPR surges and seizing trade growth opportunities during GPR downturns, while adopting regionally differentiated strategies. Accordingly, this study provides concrete empirical support for targeted foreign trade and GPR policies that are critical to stabilizing China's trade growth amid a complex international landscape.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"350-375"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond Linear Insights in the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: Delving Into Monotonic and Nonlinear Statistical Dependencies With Moving Windows 超越Feldstein-Horioka难题的线性洞察：用移动窗口深入研究单调和非线性统计相关性
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70029
Insu Choi, Woo Chang Kim
{"title":"Beyond Linear Insights in the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: Delving Into Monotonic and Nonlinear Statistical Dependencies With Moving Windows","authors":"Insu Choi,&nbsp;Woo Chang Kim","doi":"10.1111/infi.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle hypothesizes that when there is complete capital mobility, domestic savings and investment should be weakly correlated. However, empirical data frequently challenge this. This study analyzes the dynamics between gross capital formation and gross savings across 102 countries. The results reveal that some nations (e.g., Albania, Bangladesh, India) have strong positive correlations indicating limited international capital mobility (supporting the hypothesis); whereas others (e.g., Argentina, Germany, Iceland) display weak or negative correlations, suggesting greater capital fluidity. Significance testing reveals that ~66% of the countries demonstrate positive correlations at 5% significance, whereas 34% show non-significant relationships. Incorporating normalized mutual information captures nonlinear dependencies that traditional correlation measures may overlook. Continental analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity; North American countries exhibit the strongest average correlations (0.50) and Asian nations the lowest (0.35), with the highest variability. The findings underscore the need to explore country-specific global economic intricacies and region-specific policy formulation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"310-331"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cash for Transactions or Store-of-Value? A Comparative Study on Scandinavian Countries and Canada 现金交易还是价值存储？斯堪的纳维亚国家与加拿大的比较研究
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70028
Carl Andreas Claussen, Björn Segendorf, Franz Seitz
{"title":"Cash for Transactions or Store-of-Value? A Comparative Study on Scandinavian Countries and Canada","authors":"Carl Andreas Claussen,&nbsp;Björn Segendorf,&nbsp;Franz Seitz","doi":"10.1111/infi.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate the demand for transactional and non-transactional cash balances (banknotes and coins) in Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Norway over the last decades exploiting the seasonality of cash demand. These countries share many features that are relevant for cash demand, but nevertheless show large differences in terms of aggregate cash balances. While Canada, Iceland and Denmark have seen increased aggregate cash balances, Norway and especially Sweden have seen a dramatic decline. We find that transactional balances have decreased somewhat in all of the countries and the differences in aggregated cash balances is due to differences in the development of non-transactional cash balances. We argue that different de facto legal tender status, crisis exposures, foreign demand and cash supply-side policies help explain these findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"298-309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sharing the Pain: The U.S.–China Trade War and the Narrowing of the Intra-Firm Wage Gap in China 分担痛苦：中美贸易战与中国企业内部工资差距的缩小
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-04-10 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70031
Xiaoxia Zhao, Haoru Li, Xiujun Qin
{"title":"Sharing the Pain: The U.S.–China Trade War and the Narrowing of the Intra-Firm Wage Gap in China","authors":"Xiaoxia Zhao,&nbsp;Haoru Li,&nbsp;Xiujun Qin","doi":"10.1111/infi.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the impact of the U.S.–China trade shock on intra-firm pay inequality in China. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2015 to 2021, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences framework that exploits industry-level tariff exposure as a quasi-natural experiment. Our results reveal that the trade shock significantly suppresses both average wages and the vertical wage dispersion between executives and rank-and-file employees. This risk-sharing effect is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises and high-R&amp;D-intensive firms. Mechanism analysis indicates that the trade friction narrowed wage disparities primarily by tightening firms' financing constraints and reducing internal cash flows. These findings suggest that in response to major external shocks, internal compensation structures may be shaped more by considerations of organizational stability and cohesion than by managerial power alone.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"376-389"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tail Dependence in European Stock Markets Amid the Russo-Ukrainian War: Shifting Linkages and Their Determinants 俄罗斯-乌克兰战争中欧洲股票市场的尾部依赖性：转移联系及其决定因素
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-05-14 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70036
Wojciech Grabowski, Jakub Janus
{"title":"Tail Dependence in European Stock Markets Amid the Russo-Ukrainian War: Shifting Linkages and Their Determinants","authors":"Wojciech Grabowski,&nbsp;Jakub Janus","doi":"10.1111/infi.70036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70036","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on stock market connectedness across 24 European economies. Using a framework based on Clayton copulas, we identify changes in the left-tail dependence of stock market returns during the war period relative to a pre-pandemic benchmark period and explore their determinants through limited-dependent variable models. We find that war-induced shifts in market connectedness are significant but not uniform across markets, involving both elevated left-tail linkages (financial contagion) and instances of increased market resilience. Such diverse changes can be attributed not only to cross-country differences in stock market volatility, macroeconomic stability, and countries' proximity to the war zone but also to their reliance on fossil fuel imports. Our results highlight the need to consider these vulnerabilities in portfolio diversification strategies and financial stability policies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"443-455"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Does Global Liquidity Affect Mortgage and Business Credit Interest Rates?: Evidence From Emerging Markets 全球流动性如何影响抵押贷款和商业信贷利率？：来自新兴市场的证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70026
Berrak Bahadir, Neven Valev
{"title":"How Does Global Liquidity Affect Mortgage and Business Credit Interest Rates?: Evidence From Emerging Markets","authors":"Berrak Bahadir,&nbsp;Neven Valev","doi":"10.1111/infi.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We show that changes in global liquidity have an influence on bank lending interest rates across emerging market economies. Specifically, global liquidity has a negative effect on mortgage interest rates and on business interest rates with mortgage rates showing a more pronounced response. Country characteristics also play a role. The negative relationship between global liquidity and domestic interest rates is particularly strong in countries with more foreign banks and greater bank concentration as well as in countries with fewer capital controls. Conversely, countries with greater financial and institutional development experience a reduced impact of global liquidity on lending interest rates.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"275-283"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Political Ideology, Exchange Rate and State History 政治意识形态、汇率和国家历史
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-04-27 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70035
Tu Nhu Nguyen
{"title":"Political Ideology, Exchange Rate and State History","authors":"Tu Nhu Nguyen","doi":"10.1111/infi.70035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70035","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Through the variation of exploitation in ideological distance between U.S. investors and foreign governments and the combination of investor-level ideology measures proposed by Kempf et al. with foreign-party ideology extracted from electoral manifesto data from 2000 to 2018 of 23 different nations, the study explores how changes in political ideology impact domestic currency values relative to the U.S. dollar. The findings show that an increase in ideological distance following elections is associated with a statistically significant 2% appreciation of the domestic currency against the U.S. dollar, which can be interpreted as causal. The potential mechanism operates through country origin and state-history legacies, which capture differences in institutional quality.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"426-442"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Does Digital Technology Adoption Enhance Corporate Carbon Performance? the Moderating Roles of Green Finance and Executives' Green Experience 数字技术的采用如何提高企业的碳绩效？绿色金融与高管绿色体验的调节作用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70038
Wenfang Lin, Yifeng Wang, Anh Ngoc Quang Huynh, Judy Muthuri, Jintao Lu
{"title":"How Does Digital Technology Adoption Enhance Corporate Carbon Performance? the Moderating Roles of Green Finance and Executives' Green Experience","authors":"Wenfang Lin,&nbsp;Yifeng Wang,&nbsp;Anh Ngoc Quang Huynh,&nbsp;Judy Muthuri,&nbsp;Jintao Lu","doi":"10.1111/infi.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the nexus between digital technology adoption and corporate carbon performance. Results indicate that the breadth and depth of digital technology adoption enhance corporate carbon performance by promoting digital technology innovation and green technology innovation. Moreover, the implementation of green finance policy strengthens the beneficial effect of digital technology adoption on carbon performance, while executives' green experience reinforces the effect of technological innovation on carbon performance. Further analysis reveals that the positive impact of digital technology adoption is more evident in manufacturing and low-carbon-intensity industries, as well as firms located in eastern and western regions. Foreign ownership also amplifies the effect of depth of digital technology adoption in enhancing carbon performance. This study highlights the pivotal role of the breadth and depth of digital technology adoption in accelerating green and low-carbon transition, while also revealing its mechanisms and boundary conditions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"456-473"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Natural Disasters and Corporate Dividend Policies: International Evidence 自然灾害与公司股利政策：国际证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2026-08-03 Epub Date: 2026-04-21 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70033
Chih-Wei Wang, Weizheng Lin, Shih-Xuan Lin
{"title":"Natural Disasters and Corporate Dividend Policies: International Evidence","authors":"Chih-Wei Wang,&nbsp;Weizheng Lin,&nbsp;Shih-Xuan Lin","doi":"10.1111/infi.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our study aims to explore the potential impact of natural disasters on corporate dividend policies. This research encompasses 128 global countries from 1990 to 2023. We demonstrate a significant positive correlation between natural disasters and corporate dividends. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, we apply ITCV, Oster (2019), Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), Lewbel (2012) methodology, and Entropy Balance (EB), and difference-in-differences (DID), which yielded consistent results. Our analysis also reveals that cash holdings and leverages are crucial channels that mediated natural disasters on dividend policies. Further investigation reveals that the positive relationship between natural disasters and increased corporate dividends is more amplified during non-crisis periods but becomes negligible during financial crises. This effect is stronger in Asia and the Americas than in other regions and is more evident in BRICS countries than in OECD countries.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"390-412"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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