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Content: International Finance 28/2 内容：《国际金融》28/2
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70002
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引用次数: 0
Can Central Bank Credibility Improve Monetary Policy? A Meta-Analysis 央行公信力能改善货币政策吗？一个荟萃分析
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70000
Valentina Cepeda, Bibiana Taboada, Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas
{"title":"Can Central Bank Credibility Improve Monetary Policy? A Meta-Analysis","authors":"Valentina Cepeda,&nbsp;Bibiana Taboada,&nbsp;Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas","doi":"10.1111/infi.70000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70000","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We bring together the largest meta-analysis ever conducted in the macroeconomic literature to investigate the effects of central bank credibility on monetary policy. With nearly 1200 surveyed effects, we first confirm that (i) conventional policy significantly affects inflation and output, and (ii) unconventional policy significantly affects capital flows and the exchange rate. We next evaluate whether different measures of credibility amplify these effects. Our findings indicate that central bank transparency has the largest payoff, as it increases policy effectiveness by 69% when dealing with foreign exchange intervention, by 59% when dealing with capital inflows, and by 14% when dealing with conventional policy. An alternative credibility measure, medium and long-term anchoring in inflation expectations, is the runner-up, increasing effectiveness by 31%, 9% and 10%, respectively. Other measures, such as central bank independence and short-term anchoring in inflation expectations, have lower and in some cases null incremental effects.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"28 2","pages":"115-140"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144774061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From Abnormal Foreign Direct Investment to a Normal Driver of Sudden Stop Episodes 从非正常外商直接投资到突发性事件的正常驱动
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2025-07-20 DOI: 10.1111/infi.70001
Maria Siranova, Menbere Workie Tiruneh, Brian Konig
{"title":"From Abnormal Foreign Direct Investment to a Normal Driver of Sudden Stop Episodes","authors":"Maria Siranova,&nbsp;Menbere Workie Tiruneh,&nbsp;Brian Konig","doi":"10.1111/infi.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this study, we investigate the role of ‘abnormal FDI’ as a potential driver of sudden stops during the period 2009–2019. The unexplained part of country fixed effects in a bilateral gravity regression is used to calculate the abnormal FDI. We then construct two measures of ‘FDI abnormalcy’ that assess the possible role of an economy as a financial centre or tax haven, and the contribution of ‘FDI abnormalcy’ to total FDI position. The determinants of sudden stops are analyzed using the panel probit model. We find that economies labelled as tax havens or financial centres and economies with comparatively higher shares of inward ‘abnormal FDI’ are associated with a lower incidence of sudden stops.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"28 2","pages":"92-114"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144774129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Content: International Finance 28/1 内容：《国际金融》28/1
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12461
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引用次数: 0
Policy Uncertainty and Bank Stability: Investigation From Supply-Side Effect 政策不确定性与银行稳定性：来自供给侧效应的考察
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-06 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12460
Dung Viet Tran, Cuong Nguyen, Khanh Hoang
{"title":"Policy Uncertainty and Bank Stability: Investigation From Supply-Side Effect","authors":"Dung Viet Tran,&nbsp;Cuong Nguyen,&nbsp;Khanh Hoang","doi":"10.1111/infi.12460","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12460","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper uses the most up-to-date data from US banks to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on bank stability. The results reveal that elevated uncertainty makes banks more fragile and prone to crash events through profitability erosion, capital buffer, and exacerbating return volatility. This negative impact of EPU is more pronounced for highly risky and large-size banks. The risk-increasing-effect of policy uncertainty was amplified during the global financial crisis. We provide insights into the uncertainty-bank fragility nexus under different circumstances related to the option-to-wait strategy, the pressure of the markets, and the dividend policy. The paper also highlights the bright side of diversification and transparency during the time of high policy turbulence. The study has implications for policy makers, regulators, and investors.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"28 2","pages":"66-91"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.12460","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lebanon: From Dollars to Lollars 黎巴嫩：从美元到美元
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2025-03-30 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12459
Salim Baz, Lara Cathcart, Alexander Michaelides
{"title":"Lebanon: From Dollars to Lollars","authors":"Salim Baz,&nbsp;Lara Cathcart,&nbsp;Alexander Michaelides","doi":"10.1111/infi.12459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12459","url":null,"abstract":"<p>What were the policies that created one of the world's largest financial and economic crisis (as a percent of GDP) in Lebanon in the early 2020s? An artificially strong currency peg created a consumption boom financed by government debt and international capital flows/remittances, exposing both the public and private sector to classic currency mismatch vulnerabilities. Moreover, a volatile deposit growth through international remittances created banking risks that both a government and a central bank needed to manage. High deposit growth resulted in large banks that invested in high interest-bearing USD deposits at the central bank. The central bank financed government debt, exposing the banking sector to sovereign debt. A worsening international economic environment and political fractionalization in a geopolitically sensitive region exacerbated the classic delays arising from taking difficult burden-sharing, distributional decisions to address the financial crisis.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"28 1","pages":"37-63"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.12459","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143801730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Composite Indicator of Sovereign Bond Market Liquidity in the Euro Area 欧元区主权债券市场流动性的综合指标
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12458
Riccardo Poli, Marco Taboga
{"title":"A Composite Indicator of Sovereign Bond Market Liquidity in the Euro Area","authors":"Riccardo Poli,&nbsp;Marco Taboga","doi":"10.1111/infi.12458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12458","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We propose a methodology to build and validate a composite indicator of the market liquidity of euro-area sovereign bonds, with the aim of providing a comprehensive assessment of liquidity conditions in several different trading venues and countries. The composite indicator, which starts in 2010, allows us to put into historical context the liquidity deterioration observed during the Covid-19 crisis, which was almost as severe as that experienced during the European sovereign debt crisis. While the latter impairment in liquidity conditions lasted for more than 2 years, the most recent one was quickly reabsorbed. We provide evidence that the promptness and boldness of the European Central Bank's interventions in 2020 could contribute to explain this difference: according to our indicator, the announcements of some monetary policy measures having an explicit market stabilization function were followed by significant improvements in the liquidity of sovereign bonds.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"28 1","pages":"23-36"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143801463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Latin America's Nonlinear Monetary Response to Pandemic Inflation 拉丁美洲对大范围通货膨胀的非线性货币反应
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12457
Rafael Guerra, Steven B. Kamin, John Kearns, Christian Upper, Aatman Vakil
{"title":"Latin America's Nonlinear Monetary Response to Pandemic Inflation","authors":"Rafael Guerra,&nbsp;Steven B. Kamin,&nbsp;John Kearns,&nbsp;Christian Upper,&nbsp;Aatman Vakil","doi":"10.1111/infi.12457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12457","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper estimates empirical Taylor rules to analyze the recent monetary policy of the five main Latin American inflation-targeting central banks. We find that during the inflationary surge of 2021–2023, monetary policy reacted more strongly and more quickly to changes in inflation than predicted by a standard linear Taylor rule, estimated on data from the prepandemic period. Although this appears to represent a shift in the monetary reaction function, we think it more likely that Latin American central banks have been following a nonlinear strategy, responding more aggressively to inflation, the higher it rose. We confirmed this by adding the square of inflation to the Taylor rule model: its coefficient was positive and significant, indicating that policy interest rates exhibited a nonlinear response to inflation, even during the prepandemic period, and the model did a better job of predicting the sharp rise in interest rates during 2021–2023.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"28 1","pages":"2-22"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143801750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Content: International Finance 27/3 内容：国际金融 27/3
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2024-12-20 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12456
{"title":"Content: International Finance 27/3","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/infi.12456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12456","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"27 3","pages":"181"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.12456","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum 英国脱欧，脱什么欧？英国脱欧公投后欧元区投资组合对英国的风险敞口
IF 1.3 4区 经济学
International Finance Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/infi.12453
Daniel Carvalho, Martin Schmitz
{"title":"Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum","authors":"Daniel Carvalho,&nbsp;Martin Schmitz","doi":"10.1111/infi.12453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12453","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study euro area investors' portfolio adjustment since the Brexit referendum in terms of securities issued in the UK or denominated in pound sterling, in the context of heightened policy uncertainty surrounding the exit process of the UK from the EU. Our sector-level analysis ‘looks-through’ holdings of investment fund shares to gauge euro area sectors' full exposures. Our key finding is the absence of a negative ‘Brexit-effect’, rendering UK-issued and pound-denominated securities less attractive. Instead, we observe that all euro area sectors increased their absolute and relative exposures to UK-issued and pound-denominated debt securities since the Brexit referendum, as well as to listed shares issued by UK nonfinancial corporations, while the exposures to shares issued by UK banks declined. These findings should be seen against the backdrop of low yields on euro area debt securities and a strong recovery in UK share prices since the Brexit referendum.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"27 3","pages":"203-230"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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