政策不确定性与银行稳定性:来自供给侧效应的考察

IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Dung Viet Tran, Cuong Nguyen, Khanh Hoang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文使用美国银行的最新数据来调查经济政策不确定性(EPU)对银行稳定性的影响。结果表明,不确定性的增加使银行更脆弱,更容易通过盈利能力侵蚀、资本缓冲和加剧回报波动而发生崩溃事件。对于高风险的大型银行,EPU的负面影响更为明显。在全球金融危机期间,政策不确定性的风险增加效应被放大。我们提供了与期权等待策略、市场压力和股息政策相关的不同情况下不确定性-银行脆弱性关系的见解。这篇论文还强调了在政策高度动荡时期多样化和透明度的光明一面。这项研究对政策制定者、监管机构和投资者都有启示意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Policy Uncertainty and Bank Stability: Investigation From Supply-Side Effect

Policy Uncertainty and Bank Stability: Investigation From Supply-Side Effect

The paper uses the most up-to-date data from US banks to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on bank stability. The results reveal that elevated uncertainty makes banks more fragile and prone to crash events through profitability erosion, capital buffer, and exacerbating return volatility. This negative impact of EPU is more pronounced for highly risky and large-size banks. The risk-increasing-effect of policy uncertainty was amplified during the global financial crisis. We provide insights into the uncertainty-bank fragility nexus under different circumstances related to the option-to-wait strategy, the pressure of the markets, and the dividend policy. The paper also highlights the bright side of diversification and transparency during the time of high policy turbulence. The study has implications for policy makers, regulators, and investors.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.30%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: International Finance is a highly selective ISI-accredited journal featuring literate and policy-relevant analysis in macroeconomics and finance. Specific areas of focus include: · Exchange rates · Monetary policy · Political economy · Financial markets · Corporate finance The journal''s readership extends well beyond academia into national treasuries and corporate treasuries, central banks and investment banks, and major international organizations. International Finance publishes lucid, policy-relevant writing in macroeconomics and finance backed by rigorous theory and empirical analysis. In addition to the core double-refereed articles, the journal publishes non-refereed themed book reviews by invited authors and commentary pieces by major policy figures. The editor delivers the vast majority of first-round decisions within three months.
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