International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-07-24DOI: 10.1111/infi.70046
Hong Kee Sul, Chune Young Chung, Huy Pham
{"title":"Lost in Translation: Why Distance Undermines Institutional Monitoring on Earnings Quality","authors":"Hong Kee Sul, Chune Young Chung, Huy Pham","doi":"10.1111/infi.70046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70046","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines how institutional distance shapes the effectiveness of institutional investors' monitoring of corporate earnings quality. Using a sample of 3125 firm-year observations for non-US firms cross-listed on US exchanges from 2001 to 2017, we distinguish between two forms of proximity: geographic proximity, which captures the informational advantages of home-country institutions (IO_Home), and market proximity, which reflects US institutions' familiarity with the listing market (IO_US). We employ panel regressions with firm and year fixed effects and double-clustered standard errors and find a significant and positive association between IO_Home and all three earnings attributes: persistence, value relevance and timeliness. In contrast, IO_US shows no significant monitoring effect. These findings support the geographic proximity advantage over the market proximity advantage. Moreover, geographic advantage exerts a stronger effect in firms with greater information opacity (proxied by research and development intensity) and remains robust in instrumental variable estimation that addresses selection endogeneity. Our results highlight the critical role of geographic closeness, rather than market familiarity, in determining institutional monitoring effectiveness on earnings quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"520-530"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70046","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1111/infi.70023
Yongan Xu, Lijuan Peng, Aimin Song
{"title":"Composite Uncertainty Indicators and Stock Market Returns: Based on Supervised Dimension Reduction Techniques","authors":"Yongan Xu, Lijuan Peng, Aimin Song","doi":"10.1111/infi.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study develops two composite uncertainty indicators for China (<i>U</i><sup><i>SPCA</i></sup> and <i>U</i><sup><i>PLS</i></sup>) by employing scaled principal component analysis (SPCA) and partial least squares regression (PLS) as dimensionality reduction techniques to synthesise critical information from multiple uncertainty indices. This study subsequently evaluates the effectiveness of these techniques in predicting returns in China's stock markets. Empirical findings demonstrate that the SPCA and PLS methodology substantially enhances stock return forecasting across in-sample and out-of-sample tests while generating meaningful economic benefits for mean-variance optimised portfolios. Furthermore, both <i>U</i><sup><i>SPCA</i></sup> and <i>U</i><sup><i>PLS</i></sup> outperform individual uncertainty indices and conventional economic predictors in predictive capability. In particular, the forecasting power of the two composite indicators is stronger during bear market phases than under bull market conditions. The analysis also reveals that geopolitical events such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict can temporarily reduce the predictive efficacy of uncertainty-based indicators for stock returns.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"240-255"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1111/infi.70023
Yongan Xu, Lijuan Peng, Aimin Song
{"title":"Composite Uncertainty Indicators and Stock Market Returns: Based on Supervised Dimension Reduction Techniques","authors":"Yongan Xu, Lijuan Peng, Aimin Song","doi":"10.1111/infi.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study develops two composite uncertainty indicators for China (<i>U</i><sup><i>SPCA</i></sup> and <i>U</i><sup><i>PLS</i></sup>) by employing scaled principal component analysis (SPCA) and partial least squares regression (PLS) as dimensionality reduction techniques to synthesise critical information from multiple uncertainty indices. This study subsequently evaluates the effectiveness of these techniques in predicting returns in China's stock markets. Empirical findings demonstrate that the SPCA and PLS methodology substantially enhances stock return forecasting across in-sample and out-of-sample tests while generating meaningful economic benefits for mean-variance optimised portfolios. Furthermore, both <i>U</i><sup><i>SPCA</i></sup> and <i>U</i><sup><i>PLS</i></sup> outperform individual uncertainty indices and conventional economic predictors in predictive capability. In particular, the forecasting power of the two composite indicators is stronger during bear market phases than under bull market conditions. The analysis also reveals that geopolitical events such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict can temporarily reduce the predictive efficacy of uncertainty-based indicators for stock returns.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"240-255"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-07-24DOI: 10.1111/infi.70046
Hong Kee Sul, Chune Young Chung, Huy Pham
{"title":"Lost in Translation: Why Distance Undermines Institutional Monitoring on Earnings Quality","authors":"Hong Kee Sul, Chune Young Chung, Huy Pham","doi":"10.1111/infi.70046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70046","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines how institutional distance shapes the effectiveness of institutional investors' monitoring of corporate earnings quality. Using a sample of 3125 firm-year observations for non-US firms cross-listed on US exchanges from 2001 to 2017, we distinguish between two forms of proximity: geographic proximity, which captures the informational advantages of home-country institutions (IO_Home), and market proximity, which reflects US institutions' familiarity with the listing market (IO_US). We employ panel regressions with firm and year fixed effects and double-clustered standard errors and find a significant and positive association between IO_Home and all three earnings attributes: persistence, value relevance and timeliness. In contrast, IO_US shows no significant monitoring effect. These findings support the geographic proximity advantage over the market proximity advantage. Moreover, geographic advantage exerts a stronger effect in firms with greater information opacity (proxied by research and development intensity) and remains robust in instrumental variable estimation that addresses selection endogeneity. Our results highlight the critical role of geographic closeness, rather than market familiarity, in determining institutional monitoring effectiveness on earnings quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"520-530"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70046","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-03-18DOI: 10.1111/infi.70030
Yina Qiao, Zhonglu Chen
{"title":"Geopolitical Risk Shocks and China's Foreign Trade: An Asymmetric Granger Causality Investigation","authors":"Yina Qiao, Zhonglu Chen","doi":"10.1111/infi.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Escalating geopolitical conflicts and great power games have posed severe challenges to cross-border trade and global economic stability. However, the literature inadequately addresses the nexus between geopolitical risk (GPR) and China's foreign trade, particularly the heterogeneous import and export effects across regions. To fill this gap, this study adopts the asymmetric Granger causality test to explore the causal link between the China GPR Index (CGPR) and its import and export volume with eight major trading regions (the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, Russia, ASEAN and the EU), using monthly data from January 2014 to June 2025. The empirical results reveal significant asymmetric Granger causality between China's GPR and foreign trade, with notable differences in causal intensity and direction during the upward/downward trends of the CGPR and trade expansion/contraction. Distinct regional heterogeneities are also identified, and the two-way causal interaction features long-term persistence, with GPR exerting sustained effects on medium- to long-term trade growth rather than short-term fluctuations. Notably, asymmetry implies that policymakers should formulate asymmetric risk response policies, such as reinforcing trade resilience during GPR surges and seizing trade growth opportunities during GPR downturns, while adopting regionally differentiated strategies. Accordingly, this study provides concrete empirical support for targeted foreign trade and GPR policies that are critical to stabilizing China's trade growth amid a complex international landscape.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"350-375"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-04-21DOI: 10.1111/infi.70033
Chih-Wei Wang, Weizheng Lin, Shih-Xuan Lin
{"title":"Natural Disasters and Corporate Dividend Policies: International Evidence","authors":"Chih-Wei Wang, Weizheng Lin, Shih-Xuan Lin","doi":"10.1111/infi.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our study aims to explore the potential impact of natural disasters on corporate dividend policies. This research encompasses 128 global countries from 1990 to 2023. We demonstrate a significant positive correlation between natural disasters and corporate dividends. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, we apply ITCV, Oster (2019), Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), Lewbel (2012) methodology, and Entropy Balance (EB), and difference-in-differences (DID), which yielded consistent results. Our analysis also reveals that cash holdings and leverages are crucial channels that mediated natural disasters on dividend policies. Further investigation reveals that the positive relationship between natural disasters and increased corporate dividends is more amplified during non-crisis periods but becomes negligible during financial crises. This effect is stronger in Asia and the Americas than in other regions and is more evident in BRICS countries than in OECD countries.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"390-412"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-06-09DOI: 10.1111/infi.70039
Konstantin Klaucke
{"title":"Social Media Monitoring to Predict Bank Runs: Signals and Limitations","authors":"Konstantin Klaucke","doi":"10.1111/infi.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines whether real-time social media monitoring could have provided early warning signals for recent bank runs by analysing sentiments and emotions in 160,000 tweets regarding Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank (SBNY) and a control group of banks that did not experience runs. The results show statistically significant negative deviations in sentiment and emotions prior to the bank run for both SVB- and SBNY-related tweets, with sharp increases being visually evident for SVB. The control group indicates that similar strong negative co-movements across multiple sentiments and emotions do not usually occur in other banks. However, the analysis also shows that potential social media signals are prone to false positives within expectable fluctuations, making them unfavourable for practical applications as a standalone warning system. Furthermore, the findings highlight significant heterogeneity between social media reactions to different banks, emphasising that reliable thresholds for social media monitoring require bank-specific calibration.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"474-491"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-06-17DOI: 10.1111/infi.70040
Wenqing Gao
{"title":"International Evidence on the Impact of Macro-Prudential Policies on Bank Systemic Risk","authors":"Wenqing Gao","doi":"10.1111/infi.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper analyses the impact of macro-prudential policies on bank systemic risk worldwide. Using data from 63 countries over 2001–2017, I find strong evidence that macro-prudential policies are effective in reducing systemic risk at the country level. The effectiveness of macro-prudential policies differs across countries in the sample. Macro-prudential policies are more effective in reducing systemic risk in countries with more advanced economic development, with a higher degree of concentration in the banking sector, and with less stringent micro-prudential regulations. Bank-level evidence suggests that bank size matters. The impact of macro-prudential policies on constraining bank systemic risk is more pronounced for large banks. Results are robust to the use of instrumental variables to address potential concerns, and to the inclusion of additional controls to account for the impact of alternate tools that might be used to foster financial stability. These results have policy implications for effective conduct of macro-prudential policies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"492-519"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1111/infi.70022
Hakan Yilmazkuday
{"title":"International Spillovers of Conventional Versus Unconventional US Monetary Policy","authors":"Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1111/infi.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper investigates the international spillovers of conventional and unconventional US monetary policy for a diverse set of 44 countries. A two-stage empirical approach is considered, first using country-specific structural vector autoregressions to isolate US monetary policy shocks and estimate their dynamic effects on other economies. In the second stage, cross-country regressions are used to identify the structural characteristics that drive the heterogeneity in these spillovers. The results suggest a distinct dichotomy in the transmission mechanisms: conventional US monetary policy appears to spill over primarily through trade-related channels in this framework, with its impact shaped by a country's participation in global value chains. In contrast, unconventional policy is transmitted mainly through financial channels, with a country's degree of financial openness being the most critical determinant of its vulnerability. While conventional US monetary policy tightening typically causes currencies to appreciate, unconventional tightening leads to widespread depreciation. These findings imply that the specific tool used by the Federal Reserve may influence the relative dominance of international transmission channels and that financial openness significantly reduces monetary policy autonomy in the face of unconventional US monetary policy shocks.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"224-239"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International FinancePub Date : 2026-08-03Epub Date: 2026-06-09DOI: 10.1111/infi.70039
Konstantin Klaucke
{"title":"Social Media Monitoring to Predict Bank Runs: Signals and Limitations","authors":"Konstantin Klaucke","doi":"10.1111/infi.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines whether real-time social media monitoring could have provided early warning signals for recent bank runs by analysing sentiments and emotions in 160,000 tweets regarding Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank (SBNY) and a control group of banks that did not experience runs. The results show statistically significant negative deviations in sentiment and emotions prior to the bank run for both SVB- and SBNY-related tweets, with sharp increases being visually evident for SVB. The control group indicates that similar strong negative co-movements across multiple sentiments and emotions do not usually occur in other banks. However, the analysis also shows that potential social media signals are prone to false positives within expectable fluctuations, making them unfavourable for practical applications as a standalone warning system. Furthermore, the findings highlight significant heterogeneity between social media reactions to different banks, emphasising that reliable thresholds for social media monitoring require bank-specific calibration.</p>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"29 2","pages":"474-491"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/infi.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148662042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}