{"title":"央行公信力能改善货币政策吗?一个荟萃分析","authors":"Valentina Cepeda, Bibiana Taboada, Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas","doi":"10.1111/infi.70000","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>We bring together the largest meta-analysis ever conducted in the macroeconomic literature to investigate the effects of central bank credibility on monetary policy. With nearly 1200 surveyed effects, we first confirm that (i) conventional policy significantly affects inflation and output, and (ii) unconventional policy significantly affects capital flows and the exchange rate. We next evaluate whether different measures of credibility amplify these effects. Our findings indicate that central bank transparency has the largest payoff, as it increases policy effectiveness by 69% when dealing with foreign exchange intervention, by 59% when dealing with capital inflows, and by 14% when dealing with conventional policy. An alternative credibility measure, medium and long-term anchoring in inflation expectations, is the runner-up, increasing effectiveness by 31%, 9% and 10%, respectively. Other measures, such as central bank independence and short-term anchoring in inflation expectations, have lower and in some cases null incremental effects.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":46336,"journal":{"name":"International Finance","volume":"28 2","pages":"115-140"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Can Central Bank Credibility Improve Monetary Policy? A Meta-Analysis\",\"authors\":\"Valentina Cepeda, Bibiana Taboada, Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/infi.70000\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n <p>We bring together the largest meta-analysis ever conducted in the macroeconomic literature to investigate the effects of central bank credibility on monetary policy. With nearly 1200 surveyed effects, we first confirm that (i) conventional policy significantly affects inflation and output, and (ii) unconventional policy significantly affects capital flows and the exchange rate. We next evaluate whether different measures of credibility amplify these effects. Our findings indicate that central bank transparency has the largest payoff, as it increases policy effectiveness by 69% when dealing with foreign exchange intervention, by 59% when dealing with capital inflows, and by 14% when dealing with conventional policy. An alternative credibility measure, medium and long-term anchoring in inflation expectations, is the runner-up, increasing effectiveness by 31%, 9% and 10%, respectively. Other measures, such as central bank independence and short-term anchoring in inflation expectations, have lower and in some cases null incremental effects.</p>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46336,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Finance\",\"volume\":\"28 2\",\"pages\":\"115-140\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/infi.70000\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/infi.70000","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Can Central Bank Credibility Improve Monetary Policy? A Meta-Analysis
We bring together the largest meta-analysis ever conducted in the macroeconomic literature to investigate the effects of central bank credibility on monetary policy. With nearly 1200 surveyed effects, we first confirm that (i) conventional policy significantly affects inflation and output, and (ii) unconventional policy significantly affects capital flows and the exchange rate. We next evaluate whether different measures of credibility amplify these effects. Our findings indicate that central bank transparency has the largest payoff, as it increases policy effectiveness by 69% when dealing with foreign exchange intervention, by 59% when dealing with capital inflows, and by 14% when dealing with conventional policy. An alternative credibility measure, medium and long-term anchoring in inflation expectations, is the runner-up, increasing effectiveness by 31%, 9% and 10%, respectively. Other measures, such as central bank independence and short-term anchoring in inflation expectations, have lower and in some cases null incremental effects.
期刊介绍:
International Finance is a highly selective ISI-accredited journal featuring literate and policy-relevant analysis in macroeconomics and finance. Specific areas of focus include: · Exchange rates · Monetary policy · Political economy · Financial markets · Corporate finance The journal''s readership extends well beyond academia into national treasuries and corporate treasuries, central banks and investment banks, and major international organizations. International Finance publishes lucid, policy-relevant writing in macroeconomics and finance backed by rigorous theory and empirical analysis. In addition to the core double-refereed articles, the journal publishes non-refereed themed book reviews by invited authors and commentary pieces by major policy figures. The editor delivers the vast majority of first-round decisions within three months.