Government bond rates and interest expenditure of large euro area member states: A scenario analysis

Abstract

This paper assesses the possible development of government interest expenditures for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Until 2021, governments could anticipate a substantial further reduction in interest expenditure. This outlook has changed drastically with the surge in inflation and government bond rates. Assuming that bond rates remain at the levels implied by yield curves from December 2022, interest expenditure rises substantially. We also examined scenarios with a further upward shift in yield curves by one or two percentage points. They indicate major medium-term risks for highly indebted member states with interest expenditure approaching or exceeding levels last observed on the eve of the euro area debt crisis. Governments should take action to achieve a decline in debt-to-GDP ratios towards safe levels. They need to make sure public debt remains sustainable at the higher interest rates that are required to achieve price stability in the euro area.